The 3 New BP Arms

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
The Braves acquired 3 new BP arms, all RHP. The price paid for each of them is debatable, but let's take an objective look at how good they are compared to the arms currently in the Braves BP.

2019 xwOBA values for the current BP arms with 50+ PAs:

Jackson (R) 0.272
Webb (R) 0.281
Swarzak (R) 0.291
Newcomb (L) 0.291 (0.281 out of the BP)
Tomlin (R) 0.310
Sobotka (R) 0.322
Blevins (L) 0.330
Minter (L) 0.333

Shane Greene (moved to BP in 2016):

2016 0.283
2017 0.310
2018 0.322
2019 0.282

He likely slots in right around Newk and Swarzak in terms of effectiveness, perhaps a bit better.

Mark Melancon:

2015 0.253
2016 0.248
2017 0.297
2018 0.353
2019 0.299

I have no problem throwing out his 2018 season and calling him a 0.300 xwOBA BP arm. He probably slots in just behind Newk/Swarzak, and I have no idea why AA felt the need to pay him $14M in 2020.

Chris Martin (came back from Japan in 2018):

2018: 0.321
2019: 0.290

Nothing special in 2018, but has performed about as well as Swarzak and Newk in 2019. Acquired for nothing, he was a solid pick up.

In all, AA picked up 3 RHP that are all going to be among the best 5-6 BP arms on the roster, but none of them are elite...or really even difference makers. None of them can be used to shut down the potent LHH the Braves are likely to see in October. They were acquired for very little in terms of prospects, but the cash owed to Melancon is going to be pretty brutal in 2020 when the Braves are on the hunt for a C, 3B, cOF and possibly a SP.

I would give AA a C- at this deadline...slightly below average. He upgraded the BP with quantity over quality, didn't add any help in the form of LHP, didn't address the need for a RHH bat to platoon with Ender, and didn't get another impact SP that could have pushed someone like Fried or Gausman to the BP. He also shackled the team with a decent BP arm that will suck up 10% of the 2020 payroll. If the Melancon trade had not happened at all I would have given him a C+...slightly above average.
 
I wasn't crazy about any of the deals. These guys are solid relievers but I really wanted a difference maker like Vazquez or Yates to go along with a Greene and Martin. Not having a dominant left in the pen is gonna cost us in the end.
 
Jay212033 said:
I wasn't crazy about any of the deals. These guys are solid relievers but I really wanted a difference maker like Vazquez or Yates to go along with a Greene and Martin. Not having a dominant left in the pen is gonna cost us in the end.
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I think Dayton, Blevins, Newk, Fried will be good in the pen come October.

If Gausman or Folty step up they can be Game 3 starter, and Fried can be the Andrew Miller type along with Newk. It's a good luxury to have.

And as [MENTION=89]nsacpi[/MENTION] said, Melancon has held his own against lefties recently.
 
Individual-1 said:
I think Dayton, Blevins, Newk, Fried will be good in the pen come October.

If Gausman or Folty step up they can be Game 3 starter, and Fried can be the Andrew Miller type along with Newk. It's a good luxury to have.

And as [MENTION=89]nsacpi[/MENTION] said, Melancon has held his own against lefties recently.
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They may be forced to move him there and hope that Folty can return to form. At the moment our only reliable SP is a rookie. I don't feel all that good going into the postseason with a rookie being the teams "Ace".
 
Jay212033 said:
They may be forced to move him there and hope that Folty can return to form. At the moment our only reliable SP is a rookie. I don't feel all that good going into the postseason with a rookie being the teams "Ace".
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If Soroka fades, I could see Keuchel starting a Game 1.

I still think there's a 40% chance Folty can find most of his form from last year.
 
I think your playoff rotation probably will not include Fried who will likely resume lh relief duties. There is a bet here on Minter returning to form and if Blevins hangs around that’s another option.

There is an implied bet there on folty/Gausman being a credible top 4 option, but I think in the absence of being able to find a rotation upgrade that’s reasonable decision on a gamble for a club not really built to be a favorite.

I think a club that was giving tomlin leverage innings and couldn’t get anything dependable out of anyone else but Jackson and newcomb probably was well served getting a volume of guys.
 
Individual-1 said:
I think Dayton, Blevins, Newk, Fried will be good in the pen come October.

If Gausman or Folty step up they can be Game 3 starter, and Fried can be the Andrew Miller type along with Newk. It's a good luxury to have.

And as [MENTION=89]nsacpi[/MENTION] said, Melancon has held his own against lefties recently.
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Not just recently, but his whole career.

Greene has reverse splits this year but that's a small sample thing.
 
One thing to remember is we can adjust the roster from series to series in the post season. We can bring back Minter and Dayton against a strong lefty hitting team.
 
Jay212033 said:
I wasn't crazy about any of the deals. These guys are solid relievers but I really wanted a difference maker like Vazquez or Yates to go along with a Greene and Martin. Not having a dominant left in the pen is gonna cost us in the end.
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Vazquez would have been nice but what the Pirates were reported as asking from the Dodgers was exorbitant.
 
I liked what we got. I didn’t want to give up good players because I did not see impact guys being moved.

I don’t like the 14 million deal.

I don’t think they are going shopping and that 14 million is proof. Pache and Anderson are pencilled in. I think everything else will be vets on one year deals. Likely one big trade if an impact of, starter or catcher becomes available.

I feel like if we take on a 14 million salary we should be getting a 40 fv from the giants
 
SJ24 said:
Pretty much.

Read the comments from Crane and Luhnow today.

Wish we had that.
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Braves and Astros are in different states of their windows. Astros are in the midst of their run, Braves window is just opening.

This is like if Houston went all in for a move in 2015.
 
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Everything dealt had to be dealt at some point. No future in Atlanta and a 40 man crunch made holding on to those assets a losing proposition.
 
Heyward said:
Braves and Astros are in different states of their windows. Astros are in the midst of their run, Braves window is just opening.
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Not to mention the Astros currently have a Top 5 payroll, coming in at over $170 million. Sure helps to acquire pieces like they did the past few years, when you have the added payroll to take on the salary.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I liked what we got. I didn’t want to give up good players because I did not see impact guys being moved.

I don’t like the 14 million deal.

I don’t think they are going shopping and that 14 million is proof. Pache and Anderson are pencilled in. I think everything else will be vets on one year deals. Likely one big trade if an impact of, starter or catcher becomes available.

I feel like if we take on a 14 million salary we should be getting a 40 fv from the giants
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That trade is a real head scratcher for sure. Really doesn't make much sense. If you told me it was a panic move that AA made just before the deadline, I'd believe it.
 
NYCBrave said:
Not to mention the Astros currently have a Top 5 payroll, coming in at over $170 million. Sure helps to acquire pieces like they did the past few years, when you have the added payroll to take on the salary.
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If we have the success they've had, i'd imagine our payroll will increase. Maybe not get into top 5 territory, but could see it around 150/160ish mil at some point. I'm sure if AA finds the right deal he thinks is there at the right time, he'll ask ownership if they would OK it.
 
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