The Big 4

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
I think we have a Big 4 when it comes to pitching prospects. I don't mean to malign the others. Some may live up to their upside potential. But what sets the Big 4 apart in my mind is that they become mid-rotation or better major league pitchers if they simply develop to the 50th percentile of their potential.

The Big 4 to me are Soroka, Allard, Gohara and Anderson.

Reasonable major league arrival times are mid-season 2018 for Soroka and Allard, mid-season 2019 for Gohara and early 2020 for Anderson.

There is a certain poster around here who is fond of using the phrase "20-20" when discussing when the Braves rebuild might be really in its peak take-off phase. And the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he will be right.

The challenge for the front office is how to handle the years between now and then. Do they try to cobble together competitive teams without compromising what looks like our "real window" in the early 2020s. What do they do with guys like Freeman, Teheran and Ender who will be our best players during the next few years but expensive and possibly in decline by the 2020s.

What kind of pitchers do we acquire to fill out the staff until the Big 4 guys arrive? Do we keep going for aging one-year rentals? Do we mix in some of the homegrown guys who are closer to the majors but have less potential than the Big 4? Do we go for an expensive #1 or #2 on the trade or free agent market?
 
Gosh, you left ALOT of pitchers out. Easily 1-2 of the other 8 will click and that's on the low side. Probably at least four will be #4-5 starters also (just not reaching full potential.
 
In terms of pure upside I think Newcomb is right there with everyone. His possible outcomes are more volatile though. However, if he finds a way to reduce those walks to 2.5-3.5 per 9 then you are looking at our best arm.
 
thethe said:
I respect your analysis. I think you may have been the most bullish on Soroka starting early last year. Nailed that one for sure.
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Yeah. Soroka is gonna be special. I am a little concerned by how many innings he pitched last year. But if he avoids injury he will be a big part of our next championship team.
 
nsacpi said:
I think we have a Big 4 when it comes to pitching prospects. I don't mean to malign the others. Some may live up to their upside potential. But what sets the Big 4 apart in my mind is that they become mid-rotation or better major league pitchers if they simply develop to the 50th percentile of their potential.

The Big 4 to me are Soroka, Allard, Gohara and Anderson.

Reasonable major league arrival times are mid-season 2018 for Soroka and Allard, mid-season 2019 for Gohara and early 2020 for Anderson.

There is a certain poster around here who is fond of using the phrase "20-20" when discussing when the Braves rebuild might be really in its peak take-off phase. And the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he will be right.

The challenge for the front office is how to handle the years between now and then. Do they try to cobble together competitive teams without compromising what looks like our "real window" in the early 2020s. What do they do with guys like Freeman, Teheran and Ender who will be our best players during the next few years but expensive and possibly in decline by the 2020s.

What kind of pitchers do we acquire to fill out the staff until the Big 4 guys arrive? Do we keep going for aging one-year rentals? Do we mix in some of the homegrown guys who are closer to the majors but have less potential than the Big 4? Do we go for an expensive #1 or #2 on the trade or free agent market?
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Fried and Newcombe need to be there

We know they won't all hit. I hope some that don't hit can be big time relievers

We should have a ton of options.
Ff will be the guy at first
Ozzie will be cheap at 2b unless we get blown away in a trade
Dansby is going to be a good ss for cheap
Enders is cost controlled

So we've got c, 3b, corners and staff to fill. We should be able to fill out the staff mostly cheaply. Still have shots to cover of and 3b cheaply with td Peterson Acuna Riley etc

So imo we have a chance to invest some big money in the other areas. We could sign folks to high annual value deals in return for shorter commitments
 
Russ2dollas said:
Fried and Newcombe need to be there

We know they won't all hit. I hope some that don't hit can be big time relievers

We should have a ton of options.
Ff will be the guy at first
Ozzie will be cheap at 2b unless we get blown away in a trade
Dansby is going to be a good ss for cheap
Enders is cost controlled

So we've got c, 3b, corners and staff to fill. We should be able to fill out the staff mostly cheaply. Still have shots to cover of and 3b cheaply with td Peterson Acuna Riley etc

So imo we have a chance to invest some big money in the other areas. We could sign folks to high annual value deals in return for shorter commitments
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Unless some of the guys in the upper minors like Fried and Newcomb pan out, we are going to have a spot or two to fill in the major league rotation until the cavalry arrives. I think we will make a trade for a major league pitcher who profiles roughly as a #2 either at the trade deadline or next off-season.
 
nsacpi said:
Unless some of the guys in the upper minors like Fried and Newcomb pan out, we are going to have a spot or two to fill in the major league rotation until the cavalry arrives. I think we will make a trade for a major league pitcher who profiles roughly as a #2 either at the trade deadline or next off-season.
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I hope not.

I think those guys should be able to be a 5 no problem. And if you need to rent a vet for a year or two you could.

Folty and Tehran are there. So get 2-3 out of wisler, Blair, weigel, fried, allard, Newcombe, soroka and Simms.
Worst case sign another colon type for 1-2 years. It's not crazy to think we should get two out of wisler Blair Newcombe Simms next year. I'm talking 4/5 spots with some upside

Maybe Jackson
 
thethe said:
Wow - Not a ringing endorsement. Fair enough. I think in terms of pure stuff Newcomb far exceeds all those guys.
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Agreed. Though nsacpi has a love affair with Wisler despite his awful performances that you have to account for there. I also think you have to consider it more of a big 5 really rather than a big 4, and Fried belongs in there with the other 4.
 
I agree with nsacpi with regard to Soroka and Allard, but Gohara and Anderson wouldn't be in my top 4. Fried would certainly be in my top four, but I think everyone here knows that by now. I like Gohara's stuff a lot but until he adds another pitch I cannot rank him that high. I know folks around here love Newcomb, I don't see it with him. I see a big bust candidate or reliever rather than a starter. I also would argue the Wisler ship has sailed and those holding out hope for him are dreaming.

FWIW my big 4 are Allard, Fried, Soroka and Weigel. Also, Gohara would be my honorable mention just missing the cut. So saying he's not in my top 4 isn't to say I don't like him too.
 
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