The Pitching Side of the Rebuild

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
The front office has concentrated its rebuilding efforts on the pitching side of the equation. Below is my attempt to organize some thoughts on how this has gone. I divide up the starting pitchers in the system along the following lines:

1. The Bulk Acquisitions. None of the individuals in this group were top prospects but all had an outside chance of being a late bloomer and turning into major league starters. They included: Gant, Whalen, Jenkins, Thurman, Ellis, Bird. The idea of acquiring these kinds of prospects in bulk in the hopes that one will pan out is not a bad one. But so far nada.

2. The Top 100 Guys. Wisler, Folty, Blair, Newcomb. These were all bona fide if perhaps not quite elite pitching prospects. I think one of them making it as at least an average major league starter would be the equivalent of holding serve. Having two of them make it would put the pitching side of the rebuild in good shape.

3. The Special Cases. Fried and Toussaint. Undeniably these two were high upside talents. But the risk was very high too. Due to injury in Fried's case and youth and wildness in Toussaint's. Having one of them develop into an average or above average major league starter would be a very good outcome.

4. The High Draft Picks. Allard, Soroka, Anderson, Wentz, Muller. We've made the choice to go with high upside high school pitching with our top picks. This group represents a major investment. And we need two of them to make it to say the investment is justified.

5. The Ancien Regime Holdovers. Sims and Povse. We've traded one away and Sims remains a bit of an enigma.

6. Lower Draft Picks Who Have Shown Promise. Weigel and Withrow. If the yield in the above groups turns out to be disappointing the rebuild could yet be rescued by one of those two.

The two major components of the pitching rebuild have been groups 2 and 4. I think the guys in those two groups will determine its success or failure. They are complementary in the sense that the group 2 pitchers were acquired at an older age and closer to the majors while the group 4 guys were very young and far from the majors. I think the outlook for 2017-2019 very much turns on group 2. The outlook for the team beyond 2019 will probably be determined by group 4.
 
I agree. And I think the FO had hopes those from group 2 were already progressing faster than they are. They didn't want to sign 3 guys for the rotation in 2017 but pretty much had to with the lack of success, each to their own degree, of those in the upper minors. Folty has done the best and has separated himself and to me is an average starter at worst right now. I don't really see why his rotation spot is in question unless that's just a smoke screen to the rest of those fighting for a spot.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. And I think the FO had hopes those from group 2 were already progressing faster than they are. They didn't want to sign 3 guys for the rotation in 2017 but pretty much had to with the lack of success, each to their own degree, of those in the upper minors. Folty has done the best and has separated himself and to me is an average starter at worst right now. I don't really see why his rotation spot is in question unless that's just a smoke screen to the rest of those fighting for a spot.
Click to expand...

I guess I have more patience than others about these things but I do not view the development of Folty and Wisler as slow or disappointing.
 
nsacpi said:
I guess I have more patience than others about these things but I do not view the development of Folty and Wisler as slow or disappointing.
Click to expand...

Folty is fine. Wisler hasn't done much at all and honestly hasn't shown that much promise.
 
I think Coppy has said he expected more from Wisler and Blair. It's clear that the industry expected more. I don't know that we did anything wrong. Those guys are still young and could still be good. Blair had scouts that value upside ranking him pretty high. He seemed to lose his velocity and control in MLB then do better in AAA. Maybe it's a mental thing for him.

Newcombe clearly is behind what they wanted. That said, I think they thought Swanson would be special and when they knew they could get Swanson for Miller they looked to maximize Simba. Simba's bat is still really bad.

Folty is going to be Jeff Samarja IMO. That's good but not great. But he has flashed 1-2 potential.

If either Toki or Fried ever hit it will be worth it.

With all of these pitchers we need some elite ones. My worry is that we end up with a bunch of 3, 4, 5 guys. Most of the TOR potential guys are 3+ years away and that is a bother. Focusing on pitching isn't going to help if we can't get some elite production.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. And I think the FO had hopes those from group 2 were already progressing faster than they are. They didn't want to sign 3 guys for the rotation in 2017 but pretty much had to with the lack of success, each to their own degree, of those in the upper minors. Folty has done the best and has separated himself and to me is an average starter at worst right now. I don't really see why his rotation spot is in question unless that's just a smoke screen to the rest of those fighting for a spot.
Click to expand...

You are absolutely right. They brought in guys like Folty, Wisler, Newcomb and Blair with the assumption that 2-3 of them would be anchoring the rotation with Julio in 2017. With such a cheap rotation in place, I truly believe they would have made impact position player acquisitions like Ces and a real upgrade at 3b.

When those pitchers failed to forced their way into the MLB rotation, the Braves were forced to pivot. They needed to piece together a roster that resembled a competitive team, and didn't want to mortgage the future to do it, so they got Kemp, Colon, Dickey, Garcia and SRod. And we get to watch them win 75-80 games while hoping next year is better.
 
Enscheff said:
You are absolutely right. They brought in guys like Folty, Wisler, Newcomb and Blair with the assumption that 2-3 of them would be anchoring the rotation with Julio in 2017. With such a cheap rotation in place, I truly believe they would have made impact position player acquisitions like Ces and a real upgrade at 3b.

When those pitchers failed to forced their way into the MLB rotation, the Braves were forced to pivot. They needed to piece together a roster that resembled a competitive team, and didn't want to mortgage the future to do it, so they got Kemp, Colon, Dickey, Garcia and SRod. And we get to watch them win 75-80 games while hoping next year is better.
Click to expand...

I don't think "anchoring" is the word, but I'm sure that they pictured one or two of them in the rotation and I don't think that's an impossibility at some point in 2017.
 
Would really be curious to see if Povse was ever mentioned here before the trade...even once. At least one poster had a meltdown after the deal. Suddenly, Povse was Randy Johnson reincarnated, and anybody who didn't agree was a flat earther.
 
Knucksie said:
Would really be curious to see if Povse was ever mentioned here before the trade...even once. At least one poster had a meltdown after the deal. Suddenly, Povse was Randy Johnson reincarnated, and anybody who didn't agree was a flat earther.
Click to expand...

yeah he came in the threads discussing pitching prospects...you can run his name through the website's search engine
 
Young pitching arms are currency.

There is not panning out, but Ellis and Gant were the bulk of the Jaime Garcia deal, Whalen and Povse bring Alex Jackson and Jenkins helped bring Luke Jackson. These are all people who will be in a position to contribute in 2017.

Young pitching prospects, people, are currency in today's game.

Your great breakdown has it with four Top 100 guys, three special cases (with Sanchez) and five top draft picks (six with Sims). With 13 arms that have real value, I maintain the Brave could obtain any player their budget can handle if it comes down to one need. That is what should be remembered from June of this coming year forward.

Young pitching arms are currency.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. And I think the FO had hopes those from group 2 were already progressing faster than they are. They didn't want to sign 3 guys for the rotation in 2017 but pretty much had to with the lack of success, each to their own degree, of those in the upper minors. Folty has done the best and has separated himself and to me is an average starter at worst right now. I don't really see why his rotation spot is in question unless that's just a smoke screen to the rest of those fighting for a spot.
Click to expand...

To the extent this is true, it points out just how rare it is for a prospect to pan out and why most of the time your odds are better with someone who has had some success at the ML level. And it shows that the FO was perhaps unreasonably optimistic.

That said, Folty and maybe Wisler may be useful ML starters.
 
rico43 said:
Young pitching arms are currency.

There is not panning out, but Ellis and Gant were the bulk of the Jaime Garcia deal, Whalen and Povse bring Alex Jackson and Jenkins helped bring Luke Jackson. These are all people who will be in a position to contribute in 2017.

Young pitching prospects, people, are currency in today's game.

Your great breakdown has it with four Top 100 guys, three special cases (with Sanchez) and five top draft picks (six with Sims). With 13 arms that have real value, I maintain the Brave could obtain any player their budget can handle if it comes down to one need. That is what should be remembered from June of this coming year forward.

Young pitching arms are currency.
Click to expand...

That's right. Trade the bastards. Let somebody else wait on them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top