Thoughts on Minor League Promotions

[nsacpi]

There are two sets of players who seem likely to be promoted in the next two months:

1) Albies and Swanson are both doing what it takes to move up to the next level. I think it makes sense to move both one level, which would allow them to continue playing short full-time.

2) Among starting pitchers, Max Povse has made a very strong case for a promotion to Mississippi. I would promote Patrick Weigel from Rome to take his place in the Carolina rotation. Among the guys in AA, Brandon Barker has made a good case for moving up. But right now the Gwinnett rotation has Foltynevich, Baby Harang, Sims, Gant and Jenkins. If an opening comes up, Barker would be my choice from AA.

In terms of service time management, I would not call up either Albies or Swanson to the majors this year. And I would start them both in AAA next year and bring them up at some point in 2017.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

two other positional choices are

Jonathan Morales C/DH -- age21 currently in A.. .338/.357/.492 OPS .849 2 HR and 15 RBI -- we need to see what we have here

Ray Patrick Kidder SS/OF-- age 21 currently in A-- mostly OF .. .333/.437/.533 OPS .970 4SB 2 CS.. 6 2B and 3 3B...

Of course they need to continue the good work.. but I see them moving up in late May early June.. actually Morales maybe sooner.. he has been killing it these last seven days.. OPS 1.168 (when they moved him from #2 to cleanup)

 

[chop2chip]

I know Albies is killing it in AA, but I would be hesitant in moving him to AAA, so quickly. He's doing a lot really well, but he could still improve his base running. That's not meant as an indictment. I just have never had a problem leaving a guy somewhere where they are having a lot of success. We still should try to keep in the minor leagues until May/June of next year, so he has plenty of time to master AA/AAA.

Swanson, on the other hand, needs to be higher than Carolina. He's already had a ton of experience in the SEC which is comparable to A ball. Obviously that would mean he would be playing with Ozzie, but I do think it makes a degree of sense to allow them to be comfortable playing next to each other.

Povse needs to move up, but I have a feeling they maybe holding off on that until Allard joins Rome to replace the guy who will replace Povse.

As for AAA, I think we may see Sims, Jenkins, and Gant all by July. Sims is obviously the highest ceiling arm among those three, but I'm most excited to see Jenkins. I think he the likliest sleeper amongst all of our prospects. I would hope they hold Ruiz back in AAA for all season.

 

[nsacpi]

Overlooked Jonathan Morales. He should be moved up.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I know Albies is killing it in AA, but I would be hesitant in moving him to AAA, so quickly. He's doing a lot really well, but he could still improve his base running. That's not meant as an indictment. I just have never had a problem leaving a guy somewhere where they are having a lot of success. We still should try to keep in the minor leagues until May/June of next year, so he has plenty of time to master AA/AAA.

Swanson, on the other hand, needs to be higher than Carolina. He's already had a ton of experience in the SEC which is comparable to A ball. Obviously that would mean he would be playing with Ozzie, but I do think it makes a degree of sense to allow them to be comfortable playing next to each other.

Povse needs to move up, but I have a feeling they maybe holding off on that until Allard joins Rome to replace the guy who will replace Povse.

As for AAA, I think we may see Sims, Jenkins, and Gant all by July. Sims is obviously the highest ceiling arm among those three, but I'm most excited to see Jenkins. I think he the likliest sleeper amongst all of our prospects. I would hope they hold Ruiz back in AAA for all season.

I don't want to see any positional players in Atl this year.. outside of expanded rosters when it doesn't matter.. I think pitchers are going to be moving all over the place though..
Ellis and Newcomb won't stay in AA all year.. no chance..
Soroka might move.. but he is only 18.. but right now he is kiiling it too..
Whalen and Mauricio at 22, I would like to see them move up from AA as well.. but neither have had any control this year..
Folty will be in Atl. in a few months or sooner..
Been some talk about Bladimir on these boards.. I have him maybe moving up to High A if he continues his solid work..
Matt Withrow might move as well.. he is struggling with walks.. but doing well.

 

[50PoundHead]

two other positional choices are

Jonathan Morales C/DH -- age21 currently in A.. .338/.357/.492 OPS .849 2 HR and 15 RBI -- we need to see what we have here

Ray Patrick Kidder SS/OF-- age 21 currently in A-- mostly OF .. .333/.437/.533 OPS .970 4SB 2 CS.. 6 2B and 3 3B...

Of course they need to continue the good work.. but I see them moving up in late May early June.. actually Morales maybe sooner.. he has been killing it these last seven days.. OPS 1.168 (when they moved him from #2 to cleanup)

A lot will depend on the draft and/or injuries, but I think Didder likely moves up at some juncture. He's in his 4th year and they have to get him in a place where they can get a better handle on his ceiling and development arc. That usually means AA by the year when 40-man roster decisions are made on a guy (at least that's my rule of thumb). I don't think they move Morales up until they are confident in his fielding ability. Swanson will move up at some point, but we don't have a SS to take Swanson's place in Carolina when that happens.

Povse will be in Mississippi shortly. Graham, Minter, and Diaz are all on the Rome DL, so Rome won't lack for guys to slot in behind whoever gets promoted. Could be Wiegel. Could be Belicek. On the other hand, Parsons or Bird could take Povse's place in the rotation. Lots of options.

 

[smootness]

I think there's a decent chance that Albies, Swanson, and Ruiz are all in the opening day lineup next year, assuming the FO thinks they're ready. They're going to be looking to generate some excitement that's not simply the new stadium. There's also an argument for allowing the new stadium to be its own excitement for the first month, then calling up the young guys for another wave, but I think they'll want to get them up as quickly as they can.

I would move Fried up to Carolina. He hasn't lit Rome on fire, but I would want to show confidence in him and start moving him up.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

A lot will depend on the draft and/or injuries, but I think Didder likely moves up at some juncture. He's in his 4th year and they have to get him in a place where they can get a better handle on his ceiling and development arc. That usually means AA by the year when 40-man roster decisions are made on a guy (at least that's my rule of thumb). I don't think they move Morales up until they are confident in his fielding ability. Swanson will move up at some point, but we don't have a SS to take Swanson's place in Carolina when that happens.

Povse will be in Mississippi shortly. Graham, Minter, and Diaz are all on the Rome DL, so Rome won't lack for guys to slot in behind whoever gets promoted. Could be Wiegel. Could be Belicek. On the other hand, Parsons or Bird could take Povse's place in the rotation. Lots of options.

Luis Valenzuela is a SS on Carolina.. once he comes off the DL, I expect Swanson to move. that being said, I don't know why he is on the DL or for how long. he hasn't played this year but his status is 7 day DL.. I assume he is probably in extended spring, if I had to guess.

 

[nsacpi]

Luis Valenzuela is a SS on Carolina.. once he comes off the DL, I expect Swanson to move. that being said, I don't know why he is on the DL or for how long. he hasn't played this year but his status is 7 day DL.. I assume he is probably in extended spring, if I had to guess.

Omar Obregon also played some short earlier in his minor league career.

 

[nsacpi]

I think there's a decent chance that Albies, Swanson, and Ruiz are all in the opening day lineup next year, assuming the FO thinks they're ready. They're going to be looking to generate some excitement that's not simply the new stadium.

That would be so short sighted.

 

[DirkPiggler]

That would be so short sighted.

In terms of service time/ future control, yes.

Most prospects need a little time to adjust to the big leagues though. The team would be better off getting those guys acclimated to the bigs in a down season as opposed to expecting them to contribute at a playoff contending level right away. We know (and hopefully the Johns agree) that 2017 isn't going to be a playoff year. Let the new high ceiling guys get that adjustment season out of the way next year so that hopefully they can be counted on as major contributors to a contending team in 2018.

 

[nsacpi]

In terms of service time/ future control, yes.

Most prospects need a little time to adjust to the big leagues though. The team would be better off getting those guys acclimated to the bigs in a down season as opposed to expecting them to contribute at a playoff contending level right away. We know (and hopefully the Johns agree) that 2017 isn't going to be a playoff year. Let the new high ceiling guys get that adjustment season out of the way next year so that hopefully they can be counted on as major contributors to a contending team in 2018.

I think this adjustment period is a pretty flimsy reason to start the service clock at the beginning of 2017 for guys like Albies, Ruiz and Swanson. I seem to recall quite a few very good prospects (both Braves and non-Braves) who hit the ground running without needing any sort of "adjustment period." The debuts of Andruw Jones and Jason Heyward being a couple notable examples. Maybe Albies, Ruiz and Swanson would benefit from such a period. But it does not have to be for ALL of 2017. That would be extremely short sighted.

It could happen though. It could be the FO is feeling the heat. It might have taken to heart its own spin about having a better team this year and feel it has some sort of obligation to gin up interest by bringing up guys like Albies, Ruiz and Swanson this year or at the start of next year. That would be unfortunate and short sighted.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I think one of the biggest faults outside of drafting low upside players has been promoting prospects when they are in a hot streak. Let Albies stay in AA most of the season and see how pitchers adjust to him. AAA isnt really a requirement for development. Albies placement at AA was voted most aggressive placement of any prospect by both Baseball American and MLB.com so lets see how he does over a few months at AA. If Albies needs to go to AAA then let him to do it the first few months of 2017 so we get an extra year of service time from him. Swanson on the other hand needs to be promoted.

 

[Julio3000]

I'd just as soon let Albies crush AA all season, while working on the areas of his game that need help. Start him at AAA next year and promote him after a month or so. He's still a teenager. He's not going to spoil.

Swanson should join him in AA if he continues to flatten Carolina League pitching. Rotate them between SS/2B. Hopefully start him in AAA next year as well, and promote him to MLB next summer if ready.

Basically, what nsacpi said.

 

[nsacpi]

Albies has a .906 OPS so far in a league and park that favors pitchers.

Swanson has a .912 OPS so far in a lower league that generally favors hitters.

I like both. But I don't see the argument for promoting Swanson but not Albies. Performance drives 90% of those kinds of decisions.

 

[cajunrevenge]

AA is a more prospect laden league. Dansby is older thus there is more urgency to promote him. A lot of people thought he would start in AA to begin the season anyways.

 

[nsacpi]

AA is a more prospect laden league. Dansby is older thus there is more urgency to promote him. A lot of people thought he would start in AA to begin the season anyways.

Given you have six years of contractual control regardless of age, I don't see why one player being older adds urgency from the team's perspective. He is 22 this season. He will be called up at some point next year during his age 23 season. And we will have him under control through his age 29 season if we wait until after the start of next season to call him up. Seems like an ideal trajectory to me.

It seems to me that Albies is ahead of Swanson because the club had a chance to watch both closely this spring and decided Albies was more advanced. And performance so far this season has validated that. All this is age independent.

 

[smootness]

Albies has a .906 OPS so far in a league and park that favors pitchers.

Swanson has a .912 OPS so far in a lower league that generally favors hitters.

I like both. But I don't see the argument for promoting Swanson but not Albies. Performance drives 90% of those kinds of decisions.

The Braves have shown they don't necessarily promote purely on performance. Otherwise, Davidson would be in Rome, Peterson would be in Carolina, and Ruiz would be in Mississippi.

 

[Julio3000]

Given you have six years of contractual control regardless of age, I don't see why one player being older adds urgency from the team's perspective. He is 22 this season. He will be called up at some point next year during his age 23 season. And we will have him under control through his age 29 season if we wait until after the start of next season to call him up. Seems like an ideal trajectory to me.

It seems to me that Albies is ahead of Swanson because the club had a chance to watch both closely this spring and decided Albies was more advanced. And performance so far this season has validated that. All this is age independent.

Albies is ahead right now. Like I've said before, Swanson has a skill set that could leapfrog him ahead any time, but right now he isn't. Performance, not perception, should be the driver here.

 

[nsacpi]

The Braves have shown they don't necessarily promote purely on performance. Otherwise, Davidson would be in Rome, Peterson would be in Carolina, and Ruiz would be in Mississippi.

I think Ruiz impressed them quite a bit this spring and they might have given some weight to his improved performance in the second half of last year.

Davidson had a .381 OPS is Rome. Which to me is good enough for a promotion after a full year there.

Peterson was a borderline case where the situation was further clouded by the effects of the bus injury.

I don't dispute that factors other than performance come into play. But I think it is something like 20% other factors and 80% performance (including spring training and trends over the course of a season).