WAR values so far

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
29 games into this season, the Braves roster has the following fWAR values:

Batters

Freddie Freeman 2.2

Ender Inciarte 1.1

Matt Kemp 0.7

Nick Markakis 0.6

Tyler Flowers 0.5

Brandon Phillips 0.3

Chase d'Arnaud 0.1

Lane Adams 0.1

Kurt Suzuki 0

Matt Wisler 0

R.A. Dickey 0

Johan Camargo 0

Julio Teheran 0

Jace Peterson 0

Anthony Recker -0.1

Mike Foltynewicz -0.1

Bartolo Colon -0.1

Jaime Garcia -0.1

Emilio Bonifacio -0.3

Adonis Garcia -0.4

Dansby Swanson -0.5



Pitchers

Jim Johnson 0.6

Bartolo Colon 0.3

Jose Ramirez 0.2

Mike Foltynewicz 0.2

Julio Teheran 0.1

Eric O'Flaherty 0.1

Luke Jackson 0

Jaime Garcia 0

Sam Freeman 0

Chaz Roe 0

Jason Motte -0.1

Josh Collmenter -0.1

Matt Wisler -0.1

Arodys Vizcaino -0.1

Ian Krol -0.2

R.A. Dickey -0.3



Total 4.6

A team full of replacement players should win 48 games, and would have 8.6 wins at this point in the season. Adding the Braves WAR to 8.6 gives a theoretical win total of 13.2. The Braves actually have 11 wins (due mostly to a horrid 2-6 record in 1 run games).

Seems to me WAR is doing a pretty good job evaluating player performance. I know some won't like that fact, but there it is.

The biggest trouble spot is the rotation. They have produced a combined non-hitting WAR of 0.3. That is bad news for a team that is building around pitching and just spent $35M to fill 3 rotation spots.
 
I'm mainly concerned about the guys we have under contractual control for a while. In that regard, I'm concerned about what I've seen so far from Teheran and Swanson, and to a lesser extent Folty. Happy with what I've seen from Freeman and Ender. The net from those five relative to my expectations is about neutral.

As for the others, I'm not too surprised about Colon and Jaime Garcia. The pen and bench are disappointing not because they under-performed but because those are areas that are relatively easy to fill on the cheap. I don't really understand how a semi-competent front office could construct the kind of bench we have.
 
The lone positive development is Lane Adams. He is showing he might be able to serve as the RHed hitting 4th OFer.

Now if Snit can only figure out how to use him as a defensive sub for Kemp late in games...though I don't think the Braves have had many late leads since Adams has been on the roster.
 
A couple of fun facts regarding the team offense. After being 20 points higher in team BABIP compared to the league a week or so ago the team is now sitting at just 13 points higher than the league average. They are now 7th in team WRC+ and 10th in runs scored in the NL. They still remain 12th in BB% and ISO%. The slide has started.
 
The 0.6 WAR for pitchers is just nuts. We're on pace for 3 WAR from the pitching staff this season. Last year's total was 8.9.
 
dak said:
The 0.6 WAR for pitchers is just nuts. We're on pace for 3 WAR from the pitching staff this season. Last year's total was 8.9.
Click to expand...

disappointing, but not particularly surprising. the Braves bought innings and the possibility that they would outperform.

The rotation was always the shaky piece to me.
 
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