The Tampa and St. Petersburg metro area is the most vulnerable to flooding damage in the U.S., according to a 2015 study by risk modeler Karen Clark & Co. Among the reasons the report cited: a shallow continental shelf off the coast and a funnel effect in Tampa Bay that together create the potential for a huge buildup of water that can inundate neighborhoods.
In addition, the metro area has experienced a building boom in recent decades that has sent the population soaring to about 3.2 million. Much of the development is on low-lying ground, with poorly developed drainage systems. A third of the area’s residents live within storm-surge zones.
“It’s the recipe for a huge storm-surge disaster,” said Jeff Masters, a former hurricane scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and now a contributor at Yale Climate Connections, a news service.
In 2010, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council drew up the Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan, in which a hypothetical Category 5 storm dubbed “Hurricane Phoenix” hit downtown Tampa with 160 mph winds and a 26-foot storm surge. The study projected that the city would have about 2,000 deaths and nearly $250 billion in damage.
In Tampa Bay, nearly 17,000 commercial properties and apartment buildings spanning 182 million square feet are in areas at high risk of flooding, according to real-estate data company CoStar Group. Billions of dollars of private and public funds have been invested in the redevelopment of downtown Tampa’s waterfront in recent decades. Many of these buildings are in vulnerable low-lying areas, according to data from CoStar.
Newer construction that was built to Florida’s current stringent building codes should stand up well to hurricane-force winds, storm specialists say. Other, more-established neighborhoods with older structures, however, are more susceptible.
Because the Tampa Bay area hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in more than a century, some neighborhoods are filled with homes built before the state building code was strengthened. They haven’t been tested against fierce winds such as those Milton is likely to be packing when it approaches shore.
Milton’s path through the Gulf of Mexico is unusual. Most hurricanes develop from tropical waves that go from east to west, said Masters of Yale Climate Connections. Milton is doing the reverse and is projected to traverse the full length of the gulf, giving it plenty of time to fuel up on the warm waters.
“The way Tampa Bay is set up, it’s almost certain that they’re going to get a surge coming up into the bay,” said Neal Dorst, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. “It’s going to have nowhere to go.”
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate...ton-vulnerabilities-2febd205?mod=hp_lead_pos8
Folks in Tampa/St. Pete have to hope Milton veers south.