Wash and the Shift

[Freshmaker]

Really cool and insightful interview here. They talk about how, when the Braves were thinking about switching to the shift a lot, Washington brought the analytics guys onto the field and showed them why some of the positioning they were wanting wouldn’t work. So, they worked together and came up with a system that worked for everyone, and dropped BABIP against by 30 points as a result. Amazing

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[thewupk]

It's not that hard to shift. Tell em Wash...It's incredibly hard.

 

[thethe]

I would love to see the data on BABIP on shifts with 2 strikes when the batter may be shortening their swing.

A modified shift based on mid AB situations may be appropriate.

 

[McCann'sCans]

I would love to see the data on BABIP on shifts with 2 strikes when the batter may be shortening their swing.

A modified shift based on mid AB situations may be appropriate.

Based on my watching of games this year, they do modify the shift quite a bit mid AB. Riley was often running across the field during the middle of an AB based on the count.

I haven't seen the data myself and would love to, but I'm pretty confident MLB teams have reviewed said data.

 

[thethe]

Based on my watching of games this year, they do modify the shift quite a bit mid AB. Riley was often running across the field during the middle of an AB based on the count.

I haven't seen the data myself and would love to, but I'm pretty confident MLB teams have reviewed said data.

Yeah - They probably look at spray charts based on situation (balls/strikes & runners on) and pitch types.

 

[chop2chip]

I would love to see the data on BABIP on shifts with 2 strikes when the batter may be shortening their swing.

A modified shift based on mid AB situations may be appropriate.

I would be curious to see if the difference is significant to warrant the sheer amount of annoyance you would put your players through to comply.

What I admire about AA is the pragmatism. He is clearly ahead of the coaching staff in analytics. Instead of issuing edicts that could poison the locker room, he’s introduced the concepts slowly over time and built trust with players and coaches. There’s no other way you would be able to introduce the most aggressive shifting strategy in baseball overnight without that balance in the relationship.

 

[McCann'sCans]

Yeah - They probably look at spray charts based on situation (balls/strikes & runners on) and pitch types.

Right. There are so many factors. Where is the pitcher comfortable pitching, and which pitches does he prefer to throw in which count? What are the hitters tendencies? Count, outs, score, etc. I'll leave that to the people with the big datasets and just assume that wherever they tell the second baseman to stand is probably a lot more thoughtful than where I would tell him to stand.

I always laugh when Chip and Jeff ridicule opponents for letting Freddie slap a single to left, but little do they know those opponents are probably perfectly comfortable with that outcome in the situations where they allow him to try it.

 

[thethe]

Right. There are so many factors. Where is the pitcher comfortable pitching, and which pitches does he prefer to throw in which count? What are the hitters tendencies? Count, outs, score, etc. I'll leave that to the people with the big datasets and just assume that wherever they tell the second baseman to stand is probably a lot more thoughtful than where I would tell him to stand.

I always laugh when Chip and Jeff ridicule opponents for letting Freddie slap a single to left, but little do they know those opponents are probably perfectly comfortable with that outcome in the situations where they allow him to try it.

Exactly, the greatest thing about baseball is the sheer volume of data. Now that I've gotten some great exposure to relational databases I just can't get enough of data mining/analysis.

You can even get wild with what type of rotation (on its axis) the pitcher is throwing which of course provides the 'English' off the bat.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah - They probably look at spray charts based on situation (balls/strikes & runners on) and pitch types.

If they don't they should not be working as a data analyst.

These shifts are great, and I'm glad the Braves finally got into the 21st century. Spray charts on grounders is available to everyone with a PC, and can be looked up in about 30 seconds.

However, the weakness with shifts will be how slowly the analytics react to when/if guys start to alter their approach at the plate. If it takes 500 PAs for them to realize they need to stop shifting a player in a certain scenario, that's 500 PAs the hitter had a massive advantage.

I don't have the answer, just pointing out analytics are, by definition, a reactive solution.

 

[McCann'sCans]

If they don't they should not be working as a data analyst.

These shifts are great, and I'm glad the Braves finally got into the 21st century. Spray charts on grounders is available to everyone with a PC, and can be looked up in about 30 seconds.

However, the weakness with shifts will be how slowly the analytics react to when/if guys start to alter their approach at the plate. If it takes 500 PAs for them to realize they need to stop shifting a player in a certain scenario, that's 500 PAs the hitter had a massive advantage.

I don't have the answer, just pointing out analytics are, by definition, a reactive solution.

It feels like that 'massive advantage' isn't that massive though. For someone Freddie or Belt or Matt Carpenter or whoever that the shift hurts a lot, 'altering your approach at the plate' to beat the shift means slapping singles to the left side. I'm not sure that really is a 'massive advantage' unless they learn to do it every single time you shift them, but that would take a player almost creating a new swing to combat the shift which isn't a small proposition. Even then, turning Freddie into a guy who only hits singles isn't a terrible outcome for the opponent.

There was an article on this a couple years ago where a couple of guys talked about why they don't just 'beat the shift' every time they go up like fans think they should. Its just not that easy. There are very, very few guys (basically the guys who win batting titles only) for whom that is a viable option.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24049347/mlb-hitters-explain-why-just-beat-shift

IMO teams should be shifting as much as the data suggests until MLB changes the rules, and I think they probably should change the rules. But I think that is the only thing that pushes teams away from shifts- not a revolution in hitting approach.

 

[Enscheff]

It feels like that 'massive advantage' isn't that massive though. For someone Freddie or Belt or Matt Carpenter or whoever that the shift hurts a lot, 'altering your approach at the plate' to beat the shift means slapping singles to the left side. I'm not sure that really is a 'massive advantage' unless they learn to do it every single time you shift them, but that would take a player almost creating a new swing to combat the shift which isn't a small proposition. Even then, turning Freddie into a guy who only hits singles isn't a terrible outcome for the opponent.

There was an article on this a couple years ago where a couple of guys talked about why they don't just 'beat the shift' every time they go up like fans think they should. Its just not that easy. There are very, very few guys (basically the guys who win batting titles only) for whom that is a viable option.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24049347/mlb-hitters-explain-why-just-beat-shift

IMO teams should be shifting as much as the data suggests until MLB changes the rules, and I think they probably should change the rules. But I think that is the only thing that pushes teams away from shifts- not a revolution in hitting approach.

At some rate of success, a single is more valuable than whatever a guy can do vs the shift batting normally. I don't know what that percentage is, but if a guy could hit .700 by hitting grounders the other way on command, that would be insanely valuable.

Now, to be claer, I didn't say guys will definitely change their approach. All I said was that IF THEY DID, it would take quite a few PAs for analytical groups to pick up on it.

In my perfect world, players get so good at dropping down bunts the shift goes away completely.

 

[JxnMissFan]

Absolutely amazing that AA was able get buy in from the coaches. It’s hard to get guys that have been doing something their entire life one way to change their mindset.
My guess is Wash getting the analytics guys on the field started out as a meeting to show them how they were wrong and it would never work.

AA is definitely a top 5 GM and maybe in the top 3.

 

[nsacpi]

If they don't they should not be working as a data analyst.

These shifts are great, and I'm glad the Braves finally got into the 21st century. Spray charts on grounders is available to everyone with a PC, and can be looked up in about 30 seconds.

However, the weakness with shifts will be how slowly the analytics react to when/if guys start to alter their approach at the plate. If it takes 500 PAs for them to realize they need to stop shifting a player in a certain scenario, that's 500 PAs the hitter had a massive advantage.

I don't have the answer, just pointing out analytics are, by definition, a reactive solution.

Then it becomes a game theory problem. John Nash offered some ideas on how that goes down.