Haven’t won an elimination game since 2004. Haven’t won an elimination game at home since 1996. A lot of randomness/bad luck, but also a lot of choking,
I started following the Braves in '98, but didn't really become a fan until 2000. Great timing, yeah.
So for over 20 years, I knew nothing but postseason failure. And probably around 2004, I stopped believing in pure randomness and bad luck. Those of you around for the full ride will remember that the Braves' LDS losses have all followed more or less the same script: Lose game 1 while being outplayed. Scratch out a win in game 2, followed by a often resounding loss in game 3, killing any momentum and putting their backs against the wall. This was followed either by a hard-fought victory in game 4, or direct elimination. Of course, they'd always lose game 5. Always at home. Save for 2005 and 2013, the Braves always got eliminated at home. They always lost game 1. The only times they were ahead in the series was 2002 against SF, and 2019 against STL. It was always a struggle, always an uphill battle. Whether it was the Cubs in 2003 or Dodgers in 2013. Nothing ever came easy. But there was always some external factor you could point to to explain away the failure. A bad call. An unfortunate bounce. An injury. It all distracted from the fact that none of those teams extended their regular season play to the postseason. Or even elevated it.
So far, this is the exact same script we see playing out right now. Which is why I'm highly sceptical that the Braves can pull off a game 5 win, even if they get there.
And that has nothing to do with personnel. I do believe that there are such things as winning mentality and winning culture for a team or an entire city. Those places expect to not only do well, but to win championships. They set out that expectation, and exude that confidence. I don't know what it's made of, or how it can be created, but it's there. And Atlanta doesn't have it. That doesn't mean they'll never win, but it's more of a "moment in the sun" type victory.