I don't disagree with your big-picture conclusions, but you're underplaying the statehouse gains in VA a tad, IMO. Democrats netted 16 seats (maybe). Sure, that's going to be hard to hold, and most of them weren't flips of big Trump areas, but it was a significant overperformance relative to expectations. And Northam's margin with 18-29 y/o was +39. There's some stuff to think about in there.