2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

[TheBravos]

Not even close to enough for DeGrom.

He is going to provide a contender a huge upgrade this year. He is probably going to project to 2-3 wins the rest of the way, at a cost of ~$3M. Elite SPs carry a huge premium for contenders, so I'd estimate his 2018 surplus value alone to be roughly $60M.

He is then under control for another 2 seasons, and will make about $25M-$30M via arbitration. He will easily be projected for ~10 wins over those 2 season, which represents another $70M in surplus value.

That's a total of $130M in surplus value to get DeGrom.

Propects are valued roughly as:

FV 75 = $175M
FV 70 = $107M
FV 65 = $70M
FV 60 = $60M
FV 55 = $38M
FV 50 = $20M
FV 45 = $11M
FV 40 = $5M

The Braves simply don't have a headliner worthy of DeGrom (other than Acuna and Albies), and the Mets would be foolish to take a handful of 55s and 50s worth $20M-$40M each when they can get 60 as the centerpiece...as these TOR guys with control always net in the return package.

How much surplus value do you think Newk has?

[Carp]

How much surplus value do you think Newk has?

I don't think the Mets would have a ton of interest in a deal with Newk as the centerpiece, tbh. He'll have used up his cheap control years and be nearing the end of his control years by the time they are ready to compete. He only comes with 3 extra years of control than DeGrom does.

[TheBravos]

I don't think the Mets would have a ton of interest in a deal with Newk as the centerpiece, tbh. He'll have used up his cheap control years and be nearing the end of his control years by the time they are ready to compete. He only comes with 3 extra years of control than DeGrom does.

Three years is a lot ....five years is a ton.

[Enscheff]

How much surplus value do you think Newk has?

He's a 50 with lots of control and significant BP risk. I would say he's worth in the neighborhood of $40M. He's in that grey area where he can no longer be valued as a risky pitching prospect, yet doesn't have enough of a MLB track record to make projections based on subtracting projected arbitration paydays from performance value. He would be a very strong secondary piece in a DeGrom package, but not the headliner.

Due to the struggles/injuries of Soroka, Gohara and Wright, the Braves don't have a headliner for a DeGrom package (other than Acuna and Ablies, which isn't happening). If one of those pitchers had taken a step forward this year, the Braves would likely have the FV 60 guy needed to get DeGrom...but it would have been silly to trade such a good young SP for an older SP.

[zbhargrove]

He's a 50 with lots of control and significant BP risk. I would say he's worth in the neighborhood of $40M. He's in that grey area where he can no longer be valued as a risky pitching prospect, yet doesn't have enough of a MLB track record to make projections based on subtracting projected arbitration paydays from performance value. He would be a very strong secondary piece in a DeGrom package, but not the headliner.

Due to the struggles/injuries of Soroka, Gohara and Wright, the Braves don't have a headliner for a DeGrom package (other than Acuna and Ablies, which isn't happening). If one of those pitchers had taken a step forward this year, the Braves would likely have the FV 60 guy needed to get DeGrom...but it would have been silly to trade such a good young SP for an older SP.

Yeah, I'd be open to dealing Newk, but only to a team that is kind of in love and will overpay for him.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, I'd be open to dealing Newk, but only to a team that is kind of in love and will overpay for him.

Some team may value him as a 10+ win guy over the next 5 years with a surplus value in the range of $70M.

That team could very well be the Braves. If that team isn’t the Braves, they would do well to trade him to that other team. I suspect that team would be one of the dumber teams in the league, so it’s possible the Mets are that team.

[sturg33]

Some team may value him as a 10+ win guy over the next 5 years with a surplus value in the range of $70M.

That team could very well be the Braves. If that team isn’t the Braves, they would do well to trade him to that other team. I suspect that team would be one of the dumber teams in the league, so it’s possible the Mets are that team.

Assuming health, I'll take the over on 10 wins over 5 years

[Enscheff]

Assuming health, I'll take the over on 10 wins over 5 years

"Barring health" isn't a valid qualifier with pitchers.

We will see who was right about Newk in due time. I realize folks are still holding out hope that I'm wrong.

[msstate7]

"Barring health" isn't a valid qualifier with pitchers.

We will see who was right about Newk in due time. I realize folks are still holding out hope that I'm wrong.

Newcomb is at 1.3 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR so far this season. You're basically saying newcomb is as good as he will ever get 37 starts into his career. You may be right, but that seems pretty bold

[Enscheff]

Newcomb is at 1.3 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR so far this season. You're basically saying newcomb is as good as he will ever get 37 starts into his career. You may be right, but that seems pretty bold

There is nothing bold about it. It's how pitchers tend to age.

Newk's improving control is racing against his declining stuff, as is the case with most pitchers in their mid-20s.

I know folks are desperate for me to be wrong, so I fully expect the usual backlash.

[sturg33]

There is nothing bold about it. It's how pitchers tend to age.

Newk's improving control is racing against his declining stuff, as is the case with most pitchers in their mid-20s.

I know folks are desperate for me to be wrong, so I fully expect the usual backlash.

For the record, I couldn't care less if you're wrong.

I just see that he averages 2.4 fWAR/180 IP so far, and am also seeing improved control, and therefore am willing to say he will surpass 10 wins as long as he doesn't blow his arm out

[mfree80]

There is nothing bold about it. It's how pitchers tend to age.

Newk's improving control is racing against his declining stuff, as is the case with most pitchers in their mid-20s.

I know folks are desperate for me to be wrong, so I fully expect the usual backlash.

Great post... until you added the inflammatory last sentence.

[TheBravos]

For the record, I couldn't care less if you're wrong.

I just see that he averages 2.4 fWAR/180 IP so far, and am also seeing improved control, and therefore am willing to say he will surpass 10 wins as long as he doesn't blow his arm out

I’m kinda the same way. Big guy with a easy delivery. I don’t see his stuff declining much over the next five years. Now how he pitches...who knows. I can definitely see someone gambling on a big lefty. They do t grow on trees.

[SJ24]

Not even close to enough for DeGrom.

He is going to provide a contender a huge upgrade this year. He is probably going to project to 2-3 wins the rest of the way, at a cost of ~$3M. Elite SPs carry a huge premium for contenders, so I'd estimate his 2018 surplus value alone to be roughly $60M.

He is then under control for another 2 seasons, and will make about $25M-$30M via arbitration. He will easily be projected for ~10 wins over those 2 season, which represents another $70M in surplus value.

That's a total of $130M in surplus value to get DeGrom.

Propects are valued roughly as:

FV 75 = $175M
FV 70 = $107M
FV 65 = $70M
FV 60 = $60M
FV 55 = $38M
FV 50 = $20M
FV 45 = $11M
FV 40 = $5M

The Braves simply don't have a headliner worthy of DeGrom (other than Acuna and Albies), and the Mets would be foolish to take a handful of 55s and 50s worth $20M-$40M each when they can get 60 as the centerpiece...as these TOR guys with control always net in the return package.

A $33 million contender's premium?

[TheBravos]

He's a 50 with lots of control and significant BP risk. I would say he's worth in the neighborhood of $40M. He's in that grey area where he can no longer be valued as a risky pitching prospect, yet doesn't have enough of a MLB track record to make projections based on subtracting projected arbitration paydays from performance value. He would be a very strong secondary piece in a DeGrom package, but not the headliner.

Due to the struggles/injuries of Soroka, Gohara and Wright, the Braves don't have a headliner for a DeGrom package (other than Acuna and Ablies, which isn't happening). If one of those pitchers had taken a step forward this year, the Braves would likely have the FV 60 guy needed to get DeGrom...but it would have been silly to trade such a good young SP for an older SP.

Ok....ok. Scratch Newk, but I will give them Wisler, Sims, Julio AND Danny Santana. Who says no to that??

[nsacpi]

A $33 million contender's premium?

about right

[Southcack77]

For Braves the one player is Allard -- part of Machado trade or for controllable reliever like Brad Hand.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...trade-deadline

While there, scroll down for the article on the shift. Very good interviews with players on the the thought process there.

[Enscheff]

A $33 million contender's premium?

Ask daddy about it the next time you guys are discussing athletes after your econ class at the local community college.

[Super]

Ask daddy about it the next time you guys are discussing athletes after your econ class at the local community college.

what's wrong with community college..?

[msstate7]

what's wrong with community college..?

Everything! You should never go to community college over a 4-year university!

Just in case carter Stewart is reading ;) lol