Ventura's Stolen Bases
This is the exact type of straw man argument that does nothing but make someone look foolish.
Nobody is saying Allard doesn't deserve a shot. Literally not a single person. Not one. Zero.
Folks are saying it is reasonable to project a guy throwing 89-91 at a young age to end up being a back of the rotation SP. Many back end SPs post incredible numbers in AAA because their stuff is good enough to beat those hitters when paired with good command, and then get shelled at the MLB level.
We will see what Allard's stuff really is when we get MLB statcast data on him. Until then, all we can do is go by the opinions of the guys writing in the public sphere. None of them appear to be very high on Allard.
Allard’s 2.7 BB to 8.2 K does intrigue me.
Coppy
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
People also need to re-set the idea of a back end starter. That is valuable.
If Allard is a really good 5 while under team control that will be very useful. I don't see why he cannot be a 4/5. I know that isn't what you want from a top pick but it will be way more valuable than most picks.
We all want to dream of a rotation of studs. That is very rare in baseball history.
The other option is see if he can do whatever Charlie Morton has done. Not everyone is on a linear projection. He's still young. Maybe he has some velocity to unlock.
Jeremy Moyer made a lot of money as a soft tossing lefty. I have no idea why Sanchez is so good for us. I like Allard. I'd also deal him for an impact bat.
Umm....
You might want to go take a look at Happ's AA/AAA K rates before declaring that as Allard's "at least" outcome.
I would be very interested to see some work done on how successful pitchers are at the MLB level after posting K rates around 7 in AA/AAA. I'm going to guess they didn't fair very well at all.
Of the guys that recently posted a below 7 K/9 at AAA, the only guy worth putting in a starting rotation is Daniel Mengden and even he's been absolutely drilled recently, which should tell a lot.
Guys that have a lower K rate in the majors but were guys that have learned the ropes are fine (but even they are suspect to days where everything just falls), but a guy in the minors that hasn't is likely not going to perform well in the majors.
I'd sell high on Allard after 2018.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.