jpx7 (08-25-2019)
538 has the Nationals as the 2nd best team in the NL and 4th best team in MLB. Meanwhile, they have Braves as the 9th best team in MLB.
That's about the level of quality analysis you can expect from that site
Tapate50 (08-25-2019), The Chosen One (08-25-2019)
They use an ELO based system that factors run differential and quality of opponent pretty heavily. Our 6 game lead must not make up for the National's edge in those categories. It probably weights those factors too heavily imo. They also have the A's, Indians, or the Red Sox to be rated above the Braves, which is odd, but I can understand the reasons why they are there.
If we go 15-15 over our last 30 games, we'd end up with 95 wins. Who could have predicted that? I get why people are nervous, but the top 3 sites for MLB playoff odds (538, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference) have us at 84%, 89%, and 87% to win division. We likely will never pull away from the Nats and they will keep the heat on, but we are in great shape.
nsacpi (08-26-2019)