I'm still curious about this "all the models were wrroooooong" position sturg keeps repeating. I went back and re-read that
Imperial college paper that supposedly snapped the admin into action with it's 2M dead prediction.
It predicted (converting some UK ratios to US for the suppression #s and ranges):
Do nothing: 1,700,000 - 2,400,000 US deaths by October
Suppression*: 24,000 - 210,000 US deaths over
2 years
*Suppression here being:
(1) 14 days quarantine for household with symptomatic cases, 50% compliance,
(2) Closing of some Universities and Schools
(3) General social distancing
(4) And then staggered on-off variations for recurrences over the next 2 years.
I'll repeat again that I have no idea what will end up happening, but I'm unconvinced that this preliminary modelling hasn't born out. It looks like thus far we are basically following the "suppression" option and are (hopefully?) getting the corresponding results.