UMMC (univ. of miss. Medical center, largest hospital in miss.) laid off 250 workers. They were losing over a million a day since the shut down.
UMMC (univ. of miss. Medical center, largest hospital in miss.) laid off 250 workers. They were losing over a million a day since the shut down.
Just wanted to point out something with respect to how quickly the virus spreads without mitigation. Its reproductive cycle is less than ten days. So a reproductive number of 3 means that over a month you are looking at an increase in the number of infected people on the order of 3 cubed. If the reproductive number is 2 it grows by 2 cubed over 30 days. So conservatively it is growing by a factor of 10 per month, which explains why a few days of hesitation over closing subways or ordering people to stay at home can be so deadly.
My own admittedly very rough estimate is we had around 3 million infected people in mid-March. If nothing happened we would have had around 30 million mid-April. However, a lot of things kicked in around mid-March. Spontaneous social distancing. Government mandated measures. So by mid-April we had maybe 5 million infected people instead of 30 million. But to me this difference is what I come to in terms of lives saved. 25 million cases difference is equivalent to 100,000-200,000 extra deaths. It is a number. And that is just one cycle. If you think about the subsequent cycle you have one scenario where your baseline is 25 million infections and a second one where it is 5 million. So the difference in deaths keeps accumulating.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 09:15 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Carp (05-28-2020)
But again, that's not true.
Here how about we look outside of the US to a country who's dealt with this before.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-death-number/
South Korea is a country with a plan for epidemics and pandemics.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Data update on percentage of tests coming back positive for some states that have reopened:
Florida: 2.6% past seven days vs 3.7% a week ago. Looking good.
Texas: 5.7% down from 5.8% a week ago. Not bad.
Georgia: 5.9% vs 3.9%. Starting to trend up. But some of the recent data look a bit funky.
There are some states where the trends are becoming quite worrisome.
Missouri: 24.4 vs 4.3. Could that be right? I think the trend is up but there may be a data entry problem.
Alabama: 8.7 vs 7.7
Arkansas: 5.8 vs 4.6
South Carolina: 3.6 vs 2.8
Tennessee: 4.7 vs 4.0
West Virginia: 3.3 vs 1.3
In general testing is being increased, which tends to bias the percentage positive down over time.
The 7-day average for the whole country ticked up a couple tenths yesterday. Hopefully, just a blip.
New York: 3.7 vs 5.6. Yeah we learned the hard way not to mess around with this.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 10:01 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.
Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.
Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.