2014 Draft

[clvclv]

My guess is that two of our first four picks will be local kids.

I also expect us to tilt more toward HS players. We went heavily college in 2010 and 2011, which has replenished our depth at the upper levels of the minors. Then we gradually have been increasing the number of HS players in 2012 and 2013. I expect an even larger number of HS players taken and signed in 2014. Some data on the number of high school players we drafted and signed in the 2010-2013 drafts: 2, 3, 5, 6.

I also expect our early picks to be a mix of pitchers and position players. It is worth keeping in mind that once you get past the third round, the chances of a particular pick making it to the majors drops below 50%. The four picks we have in the first three rounds are the players that start out with the presumption of making it to the majors. My guess is we'll go with two pitchers, one power bat from a corner infield or outfield position and one pick from a premium defensive position with those four picks. And I wouldn't be surprised if they were all HS players. This is a very strong draft for high schoolers, which also dovetails with where we are headed in terms of looking for higher upside players.

My early guesses on our first two picks are Grant Holmes and Michael Chavis. But a lot will change between now and draft day.

This was my main initial take as well. Given the recent tilt towards mid-level/higher floor college kids to fill holes at the upper levels of the system and the seemingly broader opinion that there's substantially more high-ceiling talent available this June than in the last couple of years, this would seem to be the opportune time to take a shot at a couple of bats IMO.

While I completely agree with those that subscribe to the BPA approach, I also think the guys in the War Room have to continually keep an eye on the total Organizational Tree as well. Following Gattis' promotion, we don't seem to have any real potential power bats that appear capable of ever becoming anything other than platoon guys (at best). We also don't seem to have a prototypical 3B in the system - while Kubitza has shown promise, he also profiles as more of a Chris Johnson "hitter" that doesn't seem to look like he'll develop typical corner power. The clock has finally begun ticking on Salcedo and even if his bat finally develops, it appears his defensive liabilities will wind up pushing him to an OF corner. Caratini is another "soft power" guy.

The main reason I singled out Davidson and more particularly Chavis is that they seem more capable of sticking as prototypical corner infielders than most players that would seem to be available in the range where our picks should fall. Assuming typical development curves, Davidson could slide to an OF corner if Freeman's extended rather than Heyward or J-Up, and Chavis could conceivably be ready by the time the organization no longer controls Johnson.

[KB21]

Mississippi State has an outfielder named Derrick Armstrong. He ran a 6.38 60 for pro scouts recently. Athletic guy, had a very good fall for Mississippi State. Possible starting right fielder going into the season.

[50PoundHead]

I get the local angle, but I hope the Braves draft the best guys regardless of their locale and don't tilt toward local kids simply because they are local kids.

[nsacpi]

Talent should trump other considerations. But when talent is close there are a couple reasons for favoring local kids. One is we can scout them more extensively than other teams and pick up more off-field information than other teams. In the case of Heyward a few years ago, for example, he walked so often in high school that some of the other teams had trouble forming a good picture of what kind of hitter he was.

The other consideration is that local kids who grew up being fans are more likely to agree to team-friendly contracts. This happened with McCann's last contract. And with Husdon too, though he wasn't drafted by the Braves. It won't always work out that way, but every little item that moves the odds in a way that helps the team needs to be considered.

[50PoundHead]

Talent should trump other considerations. But when talent is close there are a couple reasons for favoring local kids. One is we can scout them more extensively than other teams and pick up more off-field information than other teams. In the case of Heyward a few years ago, for example, he walked so often in high school that some of the other teams had trouble forming a good picture of what kind of hitter he was.

The other consideration is that local kids who grew up being fans are more likely to agree to team-friendly contracts. This happened with McCann's last contract. And with Husdon too, though he wasn't drafted by the Braves. It won't always work out that way, but every little item that moves the odds in a way that helps the team needs to be considered.

But the local angle takes on less pertinence in the new capped draft system.

[cajunrevenge]

Personally I like drafting prospects from Georgia. Georgia is such a hotbed for talent its not like the Braves are in a state that rarely produces top tier talent. Most of the time it really just works out to coincidence that I like the talent from Georgia over other prospects. I dont just blindly prefer Georgia prospects, I absolutely detested Donovan Tate and feared we would draft him. I just dont like prospects that have contact issues at such a low level. I dont care how fast you are, how hard you throw, or how far you can hit the ball, if you cant make consistent contact against high school pitchers I severely question their future ability to hit major league pitching.

[skillet]

For the fun of it, a very early 1st round projection from BleacherReport:

29. Atlanta Braves: Cobi Johnson, RHP, Mitchell HS (Fla.)

As the son of Blue Jays pitching coordinator Dane Johnson, Cobi’s workload has been limited as an amateur as he’s presumably saving his arm strength to make a strong impression in the spring.

At 6’4”, 185-pound right-hander, Johnson’s frame is the epitome of projectable with room to fill out physically and add strength. His fastball registers at 90-93 mph, and he’s reportedly popped up to 95 mph, while his curveball already flashes plus potential despite its overall immaturity. He’ll require considerable time to develop in the minor leagues, but the huge upside could be worth the wait.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...r-all-30-teams


Also, as of now, our first three picks are numbers 28, 39 and 78. That will change as QO FA's sign.

[skillet]

With Kuroda and Napoli remaining with their respective teams, and McCann, Granderson, Cano, and Beltran leaving for new teams, 6 of the 13 qualifying offer free agents have found their 2014 homes. The Yankees have forfeited their 1st rounder (#18) and will not get any of their sandwich picks (#'s 32, 33, and 34), so while they've signed McCann, Beltran, Ellsbury and retained Kuroda, they lost four high draft picks in the process. So with 7 more QOFAs to be determined, our 1st pick is currently #28 and our 2nd pick is #37, and both will move up some depending on what happens with the remaining 7.

I really hope we draft two high upside guys with these two picks and take a big step in re-establishing our minor league system. We are going to need them in a few years when many of our young core guys get too expensive to keep.

[ChadWC]

The Braves seem to have an arm a year type thing going these last few years that comes up to the bigs and start. This year it was Julio. Next year it will be Wood though Wood did see extensive time on the mound in a starting role. The next will be Hursh and I suspect we will see him in an Alex Wood type deal where he may come up in the pen if he is dominating like Wood did. The year after will be Sims (if not sooner depending on how he does this year as he moves to the higher levels). With two high picks this year, I'd like to see us get a bat and a pitcher. We got a pair of really good arms in Salazar and Hursh last year. Caratini is interesting and will be fun to follow this year.

However we go, one thing we are good at is picking starting pitchers early in the draft these last five or so years. I'd like to see us get a bat however at some point.

[skillet]

With Choo going to the Rangers, there are only five qualified offer free agents left to sign (Kendry Morales, Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Ubaldo Jimenez and Stephen Drew), and our top two picks are currently #27 and #31, essentially two late 1st rounders. Our 2nd rounder has moved up to #67.

[zitothebrave]

So I must say, I saw a mock that has us getting TiQuan Forbes. I must say, hell yeah. Kid is fast (6.4 60) has a strong arm and at 6'4 has room to grow into a complete player.

[KB21]

So I must say, I saw a mock that has us getting TiQuan Forbes. I must say, hell yeah. Kid is fast (6.4 60) has a strong arm and at 6'4 has room to grow into a complete player.

He seems to fit the Braves prototype for a high school bat. He's a toolsy guy but is very raw from a skills standpoint. Not many high school kids from Mississippi come out of high school with much polish. I think I remember reading somewhere this past year that the last high school player from Mississippi to make it to the big leagues that was drafted and signed out of high school was Bill Hall from Nettleton, MS, who was drafted in the 6th round in 1998.

[Jay212033]

Most people are sleeping on Alec Grosser from last year's draft but this kid is gonna be good. Didn't get a lot of hype cause he pitched in a cold weather area(Virginia) but he can run it up to 95 and has a good feel for his curve already.

[Jay212033]

So I must say, I saw a mock that has us getting TiQuan Forbes. I must say, hell yeah. Kid is fast (6.4 60) has a strong arm and at 6'4 has room to grow into a complete player.

Sounds like Fernelys Sanchez

[Enscheff]

I'd rather the Braves find a kid that can actually hit and isn't pure projection.

[Jay212033]

I'd rather the Braves find a kid that can actually hit and isn't pure projection.

Same here sir.

[KB21]

I'd rather the Braves find a kid that can actually hit and isn't pure projection.

If they want to get a college hitter, then a guy like DJ Davis from Oregon State or his teammate Michael Conforto woudl be great. Conforto has more swing and miss potential and less defensive skills. Davis has touched 97 off the mound and profiles as a right fielder with his arm. He's a better contact guy than Conforto.

Derek Fisher from Virginia is good as well, but he will go higher than the Braves pick.

Things will likely change a lot between now and next June, but if the draft boards don't vary much, I think we are looking at a couple of high school arms with the first two picks. Obviously, signability will be an issue.

[skidlee]

With the new draft rules signability isn't really an issue anymore.

[buck7580]

He seems to fit the Braves prototype for a high school bat. He's a toolsy guy but is very raw from a skills standpoint. Not many high school kids from Mississippi come out of high school with much polish. I think I remember reading somewhere this past year that the last high school player from Mississippi to make it to the big leagues that was drafted and signed out of high school was Bill Hall from Nettleton, MS, who was drafted in the 6th round in 1998.

Billy Hamilton from Taylorsville MS is with the Cincy Reds now.

[skillet]

Obviously way way early, but I'll take a stab at who we might take with our first two picks. Write-ups from MLB.com:

1. Dylan Cease - Milton HS (Ga) right handed pitcher - 6'2", 175lbs Cease may throw consistently harder than any high school prospect in the 2014 draft with the exception of Tyler Kolek. He displayed a 91-95 mph fastball at the National High School Invitational in March and continued to show the same fastball throughout the summer, topping out at 97.

Cease doesn't have a physical frame, instead generating his velocity with athleticism and arm speed. There is some effort to his delivery, and the rest of his game may remain inconsistent until he smooths it out.

His mid-70s curveball will range from a below-average to an above-average pitch, and his changeup shows flashes of becoming an effective offering, but he'll need to throw it more often. Cease, who plays with his twin brother at Milton High, has committed to Vanderbilt.

2. Monte Harrison - Lee's Summit West HS (Mo) switch hitting outfielder 6'4" 180 lbs Few prospects in the 2014 Draft have as many options as Harrison. He's one of the best outfield prospects available, his arm strength could lead to a future on the mound if needed and he's also a four-star wide receiver recruit. He has committed to play both baseball and football at Nebraska, where the baseball coach (former All-Star outfielder Darin Erstad) once did the same.

If Harrison's bat develops as hoped, he could have solid or better tools across the board. His most impressive attribute is his arm, as he was clocked at 97 mph making a throw from the outfield during the Perfect Game National in June. He's an above-average runner who could become a quality center fielder.

If not, Harrison has the bat and arm to profile well in right field. He has the strength and bat speed for above-average power. He'll need some time to develop at the plate, and his progress should be expedited once he focuses full-time on baseball.