MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme

[Enscheff]

Well i put out 50 starts so we are all talking about the same thing. You are looking at WAR which obviously will put up some value for the guys who end up as relievers.

There is one thing I will point out about your Mets post. I believe you listed the peak ranking of the players in question. In some cases we can make a good case we haven't seen the peak rankings of the Braves prospects. All the guys on your top 4 list--Allard, Soroka, Anderson and Gohara--will probably move up quite a bit when the mid-season rankings come out let alone the 2018 rankings. So that leads to underestimating the outcomes for our group a bit relative to the historical analysis you did.

What about Newcomb, who moved down? Touki moved down. At least 1-2 of the 4 you listed will move up AND down these lists before all is said and done.

My analysis includes 25 years of prospects moving up and down these lists.

Folks want to think this group is different and special. They want to think this group will only go up the rankings.

History says pitching prospects outside the Top ~10, regardless of age or level, fail...a lot. We saw it with the Teheran group. We saw it with the Folty group. We saw it with the recent Mets group. The only difference with this current group of Braves pitchers is homers currently want them to succeed.

[Tapate50]

I'll throw this out- there will be names not on these lists that have significant MLB careers also.

[nsacpi]

I'll throw this out- there will be names not on these lists that have significant MLB careers also.

Maybe but certainly not a sure thing. And much more likely as a reliever than as a starting pitcher.

[nsacpi]

What about Newcomb, who moved down? Touki moved down. At least 1-2 of the 4 you listed will move up AND down these lists before all is said and done.

My analysis includes 25 years of prospects moving up and down these lists.

Folks want to think this group is different and special. They want to think this group will only go up the rankings.

History says pitching prospects outside the Top ~10, regardless of age or level, fail...a lot. We saw it with the Teheran group. We saw it with the Folty group. We saw it with the recent Mets group. The only difference with this current group of Braves pitchers is homers currently want them to succeed.

I think the significant change might be one or two of them reaching the top 10 or very close to it. Hasn't happened yet obviously.

[Enscheff]

I'll throw this out- there will be names not on these lists that have significant MLB careers also.

That's why I included Weigel as my wildcard.

[Enscheff]

I think the significant change might be one or two of them reaching the top 10 or very close to it. Hasn't happened yet obviously.

Again, all those guys that peaked in the Top 10 were also accounted for as they climbed up the ladder.

Thor went from 54 to 14 to 10. His production is already baked into the #54 numbers.

Wheeler went from 55 to 35 to 11. His failure is already baked into the #11 numbers.

The chances of guys moving up the lists and then producing at the MLB level is already baked into the analysis.

[nsacpi]

Again, all those guys that peaked in the Top 10 were also accounted for as they climbed up the ladder.

Thor went from 54 to 14 to 10. His production is already baked into the #54 numbers.

Wheeler went from 55 to 35 to 11. His failure is already baked into the #11 numbers.

The chances of guys moving up the lists and then producing at the MLB level is already baked into the analysis.

I understand that. The historical record is what it is. My point is that for guys like Allard, Soroka, Anderson and Gohara, who happen to be on your Top 4 and on mine as well, the rankings are already a bit dated and that the direction of change for those four is all positive. Maybe very strongly positive for one or two.

In some sense I'm happy to trade for positive movement for those four against negative movement for someone who ranks a bit lower. Moving from 30 to 15 is a bigger deal than moving from 40 to 80.

[smootness]

You really need to work on your reading comprehension. Here's another chance to actually comprehend what I wrote:

"I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career."

I said 2 legit guys I compared to Quintana and Lowe, and 1-2 more compiling significant BP careers. So yes, 3-5 guys that produced 3+ WAR and weren't busts. Pretty much exactly what happened with the Mets group of sub-Top-10 prospects.

So 2, which is exactly what I said. I said I would be happy with 4-5 legit SPs, you predicted 2 legit SPs. So there is a clear difference.

[TheBravos]

One thing compared to other teams is the sheer amount of assets we have have dumped into pitching. We have so many first round picks and high picks in general. First round picks for the most part have a higher talent level and to me, give slightly better odds to not bust (not busting means having any sort of MLB careers). I do not have the data, but I would guess very few teams have ever put this kind of assets into one area (although I'm sure it has happened). I feel that gives slightly better odds.

All in all...it's still a crap shoot. You can have a star and Mr. Tommy John comes to visit. After scouting and development, 50% is just dumb luck. Which is why I see why some guys hate we put so many assets into that area. I feel the Braves are taking calculated risks that they believe will pay dividends by doing two things.

1. Throwing so many assets into pitching that they can hedge their bets. Knowing the odds, but taking steps to beat the odds (you still have to have luck).

2. Relying on scouts and coaches to make the right choices of who to keep and who to trade (and going so heavy on lefties because they know they are easier to trade and worth more in general).

[Tapate50]

That's why I included Weigel as my wildcard.

"Not on these lists"

Guys like Beachy, Medlen, etc... seem to step forward to become prospects or become players of note from time to time as contributors.

[thewupk]

We already have one top 25 prospect in the rebuild era that's going to bust in Newcomb imo. And 2 in the top 50 in Wisler and Blair. Throw in Touki at top 75. And top 100 in Jenkins. The lone guy who seems to have made it so far is Folty who was #59. These are Baseball America rankings. 6 top 100 prospects and one is a legit MLB starter.

[thethe]

We already have one top 25 prospect in the rebuild era that's going to bust in Newcomb imo. And 2 in the top 50 in Wisler and Blair. Throw in Touki at top 75. And top 100 in Jenkins. The lone guy who seems to have made it so far is Folty who was #59. These are Baseball America rankings. 6 top 100 prospects and one is a legit MLB starter.

Still confused why people are so certain Newcomb is going to bust. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any of our pitchers

[nsacpi]

We already have one top 25 prospect in the rebuild era that's going to bust in Newcomb imo. And 2 in the top 50 in Wisler and Blair. Throw in Touki at top 75. And top 100 in Jenkins. The lone guy who seems to have made it so far is Folty who was #59. These are Baseball America rankings. 6 top 100 prospects and one is a legit MLB starter.

Yup. Attrition for pitching prospects can be brutal. I would be very happy with 5 starting pitchers from the group current in the minors. And more than satisfied with 4.

[thewupk]

Still confused why people are so certain Newcomb is going to bust. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any of our pitchers

Because he walks over 5 batters per 9 innings at AAA. That's horrible.

[nsacpi]

Still confused why people are so certain Newcomb is going to bust. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any of our pitchers

The walk rate.

[msstate7]

Because he walks over 5 batters per 9 innings at AAA. That's horrible.

Folty in 186.1 ip at AAA walked 92 ~ 4.5 per 9 ip. Folty seems to coming on at the MLB level

[TheBravos]

So did Folty...

[thethe]

Because he walks over 5 batters per 9 innings at AAA. That's horrible.

So if he has another 7 innings 2 walk game does that make it better? Is he a different pitcher? His walk rate wold take a nice drop.

Bottom line is he is going to at least make it to the bigs. I'd like to see if he can improve on his command at that point.

He may very well bust but it seems as if a lot of people have already determined it's inevitable. His scouting report includes three plus pitches with plus velocity and excellent spreads between the speed of his pitches. He has all the tools to be an effective pitcher.

[thewupk]

Folty in 186.1 ip at AAA walked 92 ~ 4.5 per 9 ip. Folty seems to coming on at the MLB level

So because Folty, who was bad and dropped out of the prospects list all together, has turned it around means that Newcomb will? Could he? Sure. Will he? Doubtful. He will probably be give a chance to start, fail, and become a lefty reliever for another team.

Nobody wants these guys to fail. But the odds are stacked against any prospect. The Braves protects are no different than any other group in history. The fact they have so many is good so we should be getting some quality arms at the big league level. But counting on them all to improve like some do around here is foolish.

[thethe]

So because Folty, who was bad and dropped out of the prospects list all together, has turned it around means that Newcomb will? Could he? Sure. Will he? Doubtful. He will probably be give a chance to start, fail, and become a lefty reliever for another team.

Nobody wants these guys to fail. But the odds are stacked against any prospect. The Braves protects are no different than any other group in history. The fact they have so many is good so we should be getting some quality arms at the big league level. But counting on them all to improve like some do around here is foolish.

The thing Folty and Newcomb has in common is that they both have elite stuff. That's why the comparison is being made.