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Thread: DOTW 9/4/'13: Is Kimbrel the best closer this organization has ever had?

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    Kimbrel's been perfect since his blown saves early in the year, but lets not forget he probably still wouldn't have this streak had Heyward not made an amazing catch to save what would've been a blown-save loss.
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    In the regular season the difference between Kimbrel and a good closer is marginal. Its in the postseason where elite closers prove their worth. Although Smoltz didnt have much playoff closing experience I feel confident that if it came to game 7 of the world series up by 1 run he would close that game no question. I dont have that same faith in Kimbrel just yet. If we are talking a closer for just the regular season then sure give me Kimbrel. If we are talking playoffs its Smoltz whether it be as starter, middle reliever, closer, ROOGY, LOOGY, or long reliever.

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    I'll take Smoltzie. And his 2003 was pretty comparable to Kimbrel's 2012. Especially when you adjust for the offensive era of 2003 and the offensive era of 2012. His 2002 would look much better overall as well if you take out his 8 run performance in the 2nd game of the yr.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I'll take Smoltzie. And his 2003 was pretty comparable to Kimbrel's 2012. Especially when you adjust for the offensive era of 2003 and the offensive era of 2012. His 2002 would look much better overall as well if you take out his 8 run performance in the 2nd game of the yr.
    Ugh that game.

    I remember that off season. Mutts acquired Burnitz, Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeff D'Amico etc and we countered with Sheffield.

    Huge series that was to start off. Luckily the injuries destroyed the Mets that year.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    Kimbrel's been perfect since his blown saves early in the year, but lets not forget he probably still wouldn't have this streak had Heyward not made an amazing catch to save what would've been a blown-save loss.
    I think it's silly to look at things like this. Did Andruw Jones ever make plays for Smoltz?
    And I'm not sure how Smoltz was more automatic, when pretty much every number says otherwise? (even ERA and WHIP, among the fancy stats).

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    A Chip Off the Old Rock Julio3000's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    Ugh that game.

    I remember that off season. Mutts acquired Burnitz, Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeff D'Amico etc and we countered with Sheffield.

    Huge series that was to start off. Luckily the injuries destroyed the Mets that year.
    I think that game pissed Smoltz off so much that he found another gear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I'll take Smoltzie. And his 2003 was pretty comparable to Kimbrel's 2012. Especially when you adjust for the offensive era of 2003 and the offensive era of 2012. His 2002 would look much better overall as well if you take out his 8 run performance in the 2nd game of the yr.
    Lulz

    In 2003 Smoltz had a 385 ERA+ last 2 years Kimbrel has been at 399 and 417 respectively. Not to mention the FIP advantage

    You can make it pretty simple. Smoltz from 02-04 had a 173 ERA+, Kimbrel has in his 3 years as closer a 277.

    And you can't play the if you remove one bad outing game. That's not how statistical analysis works. Sure you can say Smoltz's ERA looks worse than his results because of a bad outing, but then you rely on other stats which you immediately disqualify anyway.

    BTW in the realm of weird facts. Kimbrel has 3 blown saves and 2 losses, He's let up runs in 4 games this year, meaning the 2 outcomes of Kimbrel coming in this year were not letting the opponent cross the plate, or they won. No blown save wins, no superfluous outings where he let up 2 runs but we were up by 5, etc. Pretty interesting.
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    I'd take Smoltz as well, no knock on Kimbrel though.

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    Bobby or Fredi would have never left Kimbrel in to give up 8 runs. For some reason he let Smoltz.
    Forever Fredi


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    I think this debate is one where you really can't go wrong with either. It's all personal preference, both were/are top of the line elite closers. Both are automatic, when they enter the game it's pretty much over.

    I agree with the poster that said the ideal scenario would be one where Smoltz started and Kimbrel closed.

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    Smoltz was a great closer. Kimbrel's pitched like the grestest reliever of all time in his short tenure. His numbers dwarf Mariano. Blown Saves is a terrible stat, blowing a 1 run lead isnt the same as blowing a 2 or 3 run lead. You arent insulting to Smoltz to say Kimbrel was better, which he is easily by any stat out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pugfan View Post
    He is a far better pitcher now than he was in 2010. Just like Smoltz was a far better pitcher in 1991 than he was in 1988.
    No one is saying otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bye Week View Post
    2010 isn't fair to blame on Kimbrel. Cox should have left him in the game also. He had thrown 20IP in MLB up to that point. We were handcuffed without Wagner though.
    Agreed. Cox obviously just didn't trust him enough due to his lack of experience. It looks even worse now because Kimbrel has proven those numbers no fluke, etc. What was worse is Cox brought in Mike Dunn, who had already been struggling previously despite good overall numbers. Plus our options were limited minus Wagner as you note.

    Also, Conrad gets most of the blame but Cox should've replaced him defensively in the 9th (especially after he'd already made two errors that game). Further, MLB Network showed that on that 9th inning error the umpire by second actually screened Conrad on the play (no one else considered that point at the time because they were too busy bashing Conrad).
    Last edited by Braves1976; 09-05-2013 at 03:54 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    What Smoltz did was brilliant. What Kimbrel is doing is historic.
    Agreed. But I'd still take Smoltz over Kimbrel in a big game situation. That's no knock on Kimbrel, it's just I consider Smoltz the best big game pitcher I have ever had the pleasure to watch pitch.

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    Yeah, for a one-run game in the post-season, I'd take Smoltzie in the ninth.

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    Smoltz was smarter but had more experience before becoming a closer.

    Kimbrel to be so dominant right out of the gate is just crazy. It's too good to be true. In fact I expect for his velocity to start falling soon, hopefully not from injury but history is not on his side. However, I thought the same thing last year and he was just as good.

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