Fangraphs: What, exactly, are the Braves up to?
- Thread starter Freshmaker
- Start date
Southcack77
Well-known member
Cool and if the Braves had gone out and signed one, there is a 80% chance it would have gone poorly based on the performance of guys that moved and well the offense still would not have performed.
So no change in the outcome but out the prospects anyway.
The very small percentage increase of winning generally is not worth the investment.
But fans just want them to do something exciting all the time and not worry about the cost.
striker42
Well-known member
Whether the move would have worked out or not isn't what we were discussing. The issue is that we need a starter now the same way we needed one at the deadline. It turned out our rotation wasn't as solid as we had hoped. I think the same will be true if we don't add another starter.
striker42
Well-known member
I wanted Lorenzen. I still think he'd have been a decent pickup, especially given the flexibility of being able to use him out of the pen.
Lorenzen had an xwOBA of .326 last year. It was slightly better than Elder's .329.
While he wouldn't have been a major improvement over Elder, he would have been a fantastic addition for depth. I also think you probably could have had him and Elder each gone one time through the batting order and been in decent shape.
Deester11
Well-known member
I don't get whats so hard about this sentiment to understand. I was that way at the deadline last year and it's the same thing this year.
striker42
Well-known member
This week in particular is brutal. The week between Christmas and New Years is completely dead every year. Execs are all out on the slopes or the beaches.
That seems to be what the consensus is building towards.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Maybe a poll? Or if Cys mom is involved- a pole? To get this clearer
I'll be forming a consensus inquiry to determine if there's enough evidence to prove the opinion of the board was we needed a starter at the deadline. A committee may be formed to further evaluate the pros and cons.
Could eventually lead to an articles of impeachment of the President of Baseball Operations, drafted and sent to the Chop Country Board of Directors to further send up to the front office in Atlanta. Neglecting his duty as President of Baseball Operations to acquire a 3rd starter for not just the regular season but the playoffs.
Could eventually lead to an articles of impeachment of the President of Baseball Operations, drafted and sent to the Chop Country Board of Directors to further send up to the front office in Atlanta. Neglecting his duty as President of Baseball Operations to acquire a 3rd starter for not just the regular season but the playoffs.
I would have gladly taken an uncooked Lorenzen over Elder every single time without hesitation. He was very clearly a 3-4 until the Phillies let him throw 150 pitches chasing that no hitter, and he cost essentially nothing. He would have been a perfectly fine addition as rotation insurance.
LMAO! I can't believe you are still harping on this.
He's a career journeyman who was a long reliever/spot starter before 2022. The most innings he had ever thrown was 113 innings his rookie season. And his overall 2023 stat line (ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc) ended up being almost IDENTICAL to his career numbers in every aspect.... But sure, the Phillies cooked him in 1 game.
The metrics say he was pitching over his head and due for regression. Maybe not as much regression as he ended up having, , but regression nonetheless. I pointed this out in August. So did multiple others. He didn't magically morph into a no. 3 pitcher in one season. And his numbers ended up exactly in line with his career numbers. I mean they are nearly identical.
But I'm sure his 3+ month sample size holds more weight than his career numbers....
That being said, he likely would have been an better option than a Elder given that Philly had seen Elder a lot already and owned him. But acting like he was would have a difference maker type of pitcher is laughable.
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You can check the stats yourself. I posted them several times, so if you don’t understand/believe them there no way to help you. They very clearly cooked him with that single extended outing, which is why pitchers aren’t allowed to throw so many pitches in the modern game…some call it common knowledge by now. He was better than Elder for 50 starts before that extended outing, which is all I ever said he was, and cooked after. It’s a matter of indisputable fact.
Either way, it doesn’t matter now. AA understood the needs of the team just like I did, and got the additional impact SP they needed. Well done, and I’m glad he was on the same page as me. He’s too smart not to be.
Either way, it doesn’t matter now. AA understood the needs of the team just like I did, and got the additional impact SP they needed. Well done, and I’m glad he was on the same page as me. He’s too smart not to be.
Can you tell me the difference between FIP, xFIP and xwOBA, and why you think any are more or less reliable than just xwOBA?
Lorenzen was a better SP than Elder for the better part of 2 seasons. He also had experience in the BO so cold shift there in the event he wasn’t needed to start. Those are facts. That’s why I wanted him, and I never claimed anything else.
Lorenzen was a better SP than Elder for the better part of 2 seasons. He also had experience in the BO so cold shift there in the event he wasn’t needed to start. Those are facts. That’s why I wanted him, and I never claimed anything else.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I'm confused by this argument. Lorenzen isn't that great. He's 7 years older than Elder, so who cares?
The difference is, I'm not only using xwOBA to make my argument.