GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Present value of $10M in 2039 assuming 5% discount rate is about $4.6M. Plus the current $500k leaves his cost a touch over $5M.
Braves trade for Chris Sale - Grissom going to Red Sox (Extension through 26 at 18M)
- Thread starter DirkPiggler
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Present value of $10M in 2039 assuming 5% discount rate is about $4.6M. Plus the current $500k leaves his cost a touch over $5M.
FG article on the trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/braves-continue-trade-happy-offseason-with-chris-sale-acquisition/
Saying what I have been saying and most around here already understand: “ sense. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a full season out of him.” but rather “the potential to make a difference on a full-strength playoff roster.”
He also echoes my thoughts that adding Lopez/Kelenic/Fletcher/Sale by spending a lot of cash and Grissom is a questionably risky way to address the obvious holes on the roster that could have been filled in a straightforward and less risky manner. This entire offseason success will hinge on whether or not the Braves fix Kelenic because that series of convoluted moves led to taking a risk on Sale as well.
There are a lot of resources poured into the hope Kelenic turns into LHH Austin Riley. His development is by far the most interesting thing to watch this season.
Saying what I have been saying and most around here already understand: “ sense. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a full season out of him.” but rather “the potential to make a difference on a full-strength playoff roster.”
He also echoes my thoughts that adding Lopez/Kelenic/Fletcher/Sale by spending a lot of cash and Grissom is a questionably risky way to address the obvious holes on the roster that could have been filled in a straightforward and less risky manner. This entire offseason success will hinge on whether or not the Braves fix Kelenic because that series of convoluted moves led to taking a risk on Sale as well.
There are a lot of resources poured into the hope Kelenic turns into LHH Austin Riley. His development is by far the most interesting thing to watch this season.
Giolito is probably someone they hope will rebound and can flip at the deadline. Probably doesn't have much bearing on the Sale trade. BoSox have to know they aren't really close to competing with their current roster in a stacked division.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Maybe it was thought to be inflammation first and that’s what I saw? Not sure.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
I believe you had mentioned Kepler as an option for LF. I don't know what the cost would have been to acquire him, if he's even available, it that seems like it would have been a safer and more straightforward solution.
We don’t know about Kepler, but we do know about Heyward and Verdugo.
So the choice was something like Verdugo/Stroman vs Kelenic/Sale. One is safer, and one has massive upside. I probably would have went with the safer option, but I definitely see the allure of the upside AA rolled the dice on.
Yeah I didn’t realize the Sox were punting 2024. Nobody was ever going to give them anything better than Grissom for Sale.
Why not go with the option with upside though, when you already know you’re going to be one of the best teams in the league? You have that luxury.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
This is my thought. Kelenic potentially fixes LF at a reasonable rate for the next few years. Sale potentially makes a difference for the next two playoff runs. Neither lock down a large chunk of payroll for the future.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Depending on what Stroman gets, Kelenic/Sale also gives a lot more financial flexibility next offseason (when AA finally has to confront the Fried dilemma no less).
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Part of the reason I'm a little more down on the Sale trade than a lot of people (the money makes it better than I initially thought) is that I don't know that there actually is a lot of upside with him. It feels like there should be, because it's CHRIS SALE, Badass Cy Young Contender, but that's a long way in the rearview mirror. He's 35 years old with an extensive injury history. I know there are some things to like in his peripherals and Statcast data, but even with that, I think you're still looking at a guy who tops out at a solid third starter, and with significant downside potential.
You obviously would still rather him start a playoff game than Bryce Elder, but you can say that about a lot of guys. Boiling it down and removing the names from the equation, I think we traded Grissom for an old, injury-prone pitcher whose ceiling is a third starter with good strikeout numbers (a very good thing to have, certainly!) and whose downside is zero innings pitched (or something close enough to zero as to make no difference). I don't think that's a terrible deal, but I'm also pretty wary.
You obviously would still rather him start a playoff game than Bryce Elder, but you can say that about a lot of guys. Boiling it down and removing the names from the equation, I think we traded Grissom for an old, injury-prone pitcher whose ceiling is a third starter with good strikeout numbers (a very good thing to have, certainly!) and whose downside is zero innings pitched (or something close enough to zero as to make no difference). I don't think that's a terrible deal, but I'm also pretty wary.
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We don't know yet what Stroman will command. But assuming it's around 3/60, I wouldn't call him particularly "safer."
Yup, a very valid argument and almost certainly the exact thing AA considers. Even if Kelenic completely flops this team still wins 100 games. But if he hits they have another cheap all star that will likely loves being in Atlanta so much he signs a cheap extension.
And Sale is a chance to have a true dominant arm in October.
I totally get the reasoning, I just would have played the safer game. Neither option is right or wrong now, and the ultimate outcome either way won’t make either right or wrong 6 months from now. These were reasonable gambles to make for the current super team in baseball.
Stroman is many times more likely to pitch innings for the Atlanta Braves. Again, I’m beyond tired of arguing semantics of the word “safer” with people who are just trying to disagree with the professor in class.
Also a valid point. The Braves payroll clears up nicely starting next year. They can reset the penalties or spend huge cash again. AA has done an excellent job maintaining financial flexibility during his tenure.
I think your safer play was Nola. By all accounts the Braves tried to get him but he went back to Philly.
I don’t think this is fair to Sale if he’s in top form, when he’s showed just last year that he’s a legit #2. Being skeptical that he’s actually going to be in top form in October is a legit concern though.
AA must have amazing faith in Snit that Snit will properly manage Sale’s workload to even make it to October on a healthy note.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I’m wary, too, but I like the gamble.
A few weeks ago we were discussing back of the rotation options and I was thinking, this isn’t it. We’ve got guys who can eat innings, guys who can get outs. What we could use is a difference maker. To dominate in October.
For $300M and a decade of commitment, we could have a surer thing (not a lock, mind you) with Yamamoto. Or, for more risk but a one year commitment and $5M of present value dollars, we can have a potentially similar impact with more risk. And another year at reasonable money if it works out.
Kelenic is another risk, but as Enscheff says, there’s no team better situated to take those gambles than us.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I don’t think Snit is as galactically retarded as most of the board thinks he is. He surely understands that he has a Ming vase and needs to treat it with the utmost caution. Even Sale has to be aware of his limitations, no matter how stubborn he is.