Harang: A Tale of 3 Metrics

thewupk said:
I think most people see that. It has to be one of the luckiest runs to start a season for a pitcher. That said this team was due some luck to the rotation after losing Medlen and Beachy for the year and Minor being going for a month.
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The question is does Fredi see it. He made a post-game comment about wanting Harang around for another 25 or so starts. Maybe it was just a throwaway comment. Maybe Fredi is not the decision-maker on these kinds of matters. The analogy I come up with is playing blackjack at a casino. You start out on a hot streak and rationalize continuing to play based on the idea that this is your lucky day or you are just playing with house money. But money is money, and the fact that you started out lucky should not in any way affect how long you continue to play (or continue to give Harang starts).
 
I don't think you necessarily bench him before he regresses. I think you let him have a bad start at least before you move him.
 
nsacpi said:
The question is does Fredi see it. He made a post-game comment about wanting Harang around for another 25 or so starts. Maybe it was just a throwaway comment. Maybe Fredi is not the decision-maker on these kinds of matters. The analogy I come up with is playing blackjack at a casino. You start out on a hot streak and rationalize continuing to play based on the idea that this is your lucky day or you are just playing with house money. But money is money, and the fact that you started out lucky should not in any way affect how long you continue to play (or continue to give Harang starts).
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I agree with that. Personally I would keep throwing Harang out there until he sucks it up completely for like 2-3 starts in a row. Provided Floyd is ready to go then you put him in that spot. And I think that comment by Fredi was just a throw away comment. Wren is smarter then that and will make a change when it's necessary imo.
 
thethe said:
I don't think you necessarily bench him before he regresses. I think you let him have a bad start at least before you move him.
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Decisions on playing time should be forward-looking as much as possible. Of course, expectations of future performance are based on past performance. But you want to look at past performance in the right way. And if you look at the relevant numbers for Harang (walk rates, strikeout rates, the type of contact he is giving up), there is really no basis to think he is better than he has been in recent years. His success so far is entirely derived from luck. There is no reason to keep him in the rotation once Floyd and Minor are back.
 
thewupk said:
I agree with that. Personally I would keep throwing Harang out there until he sucks it up completely for like 2-3 starts in a row. Provided Floyd is ready to go then you put him in that spot. And I think that comment by Fredi was just a throw away comment. Wren is smarter then that and will make a change when it's necessary imo.
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I think Wren is much less sentimental about these matters than Fredi. If you look at Fredi's comments about Garcia in spring training you can see he loved Garcia and put a lot of weight on the game he pitched against the Dodgers and was impressed by his spring training performances. And he wasn't happy about cutting Garcia. Fredi has a pretty naïve way of looking at these things. And so do some of our friends on these boards.
 
I score this one for the scouting guys. it was they that told management he was looking good in ST. It was said that a change was made in Harang's delivery, one that allowed him to be more consistent. Well so far so good. It may end up not being what it appears, but for now I am quite content to see him run out there every 5th day. We all know Hale goes either to the pen or back to AAA when Minor is ready next week, but I am not quite sold on taking Harang out of the rotation for Floyd as of now, and I certainly would not take Alex Woods out of it. So where does that leave Floyd? Dunno, I am sure he would not be too happy being held at AAA, but this is a team sport and you do what is best for the team.
 
To add a little perspective, Santana in contrast to Harang really has pitched well. The numbers that are useful for predicting future performance look terrific from his two starts (yes very small sample). In those starts he has a FIP of 2.00 and xFIP of 1.65. This reflects walk and strikeout rates that are very good both in absolute terms and compared to his numbers in past years. He also has had some luck in the form of a low BABIP and high strand rate. But the proportion of his overall success in preventing runs that is due to luck is much smaller than Harang's case. There is also one indicator (more groundballs and fewer flyballs) that suggests he is evolving as a pitcher. His fastball velocity is up a little from recent years. And he is throwing more changeups. There is a lot of positive stuff from Santana's two starts so far that suggests he might be able to sustain a pretty high level of performance in 2014.
 
depley said:
I score this one for the scouting guys. it was they that told management he was looking good in ST. It was said that a change was made in Harang's delivery, one that allowed him to be more consistent. Well so far so good. It may end up not being what it appears, but for now I am quite content to see him run out there every 5th day. We all know Hale goes either to the pen or back to AAA when Minor is ready next week, but I am not quite sold on taking Harang out of the rotation for Floyd as of now, and I certainly would not take Alex Woods out of it. So where does that leave Floyd? Dunno, I am sure he would not be too happy being held at AAA, but this is a team sport and you do what is best for the team.
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Maybe Harang has tweaked things to allow him to throw better. But it isn't showing up in his walk rate. It hasn't shown up in the form of lower line drive rates. It hasn't shown up in the form of a reduction in fly balls. His average fastball velocity is right where it has been in recent years. His pitch selection is a little different. He's ditched the curve, which interestingly enough was his best pitch statistically last year. I don't see anything other than pixie dust to account for his success at this point.
 
It can be analyzed in a million different ways. we all know its going to end at some point. I'm just going to enjoy it while its happening and not worry about when its going to end.
 
He was brought in as a stop gap to the injuries and was slated as a number 5 starter from the get go. What do you really expect from a #5 guy.

IMO Fredi HAS to ride this horse til he drops dead on the back turn.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
He was brought in as a stop gap to the injuries and was slated as a number 5 starter from the get go. What do you really expect from a #5 guy.

IMO Fredi HAS to ride this horse til he drops dead on the back turn.
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I'm delighted with Harang's starts. But I think the right course is to get off the horse as soon as possible, ie when Minor and Floyd return.
 
nsacpi said:
I think Wren is much less sentimental about these matters than Fredi. If you look at Fredi's comments about Garcia in spring training you can see he loved Garcia and put a lot of weight on the game he pitched against the Dodgers and was impressed by his spring training performances. And he wasn't happy about cutting Garcia. Fredi has a pretty naïve way of looking at these things. And so do some of our friends on these boards.
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He's no different than Cox in that regard. Remember the rumors of discord over Glavine and Smoltz between Bobby and Frank? I still say that hastened Bobby's retirement.
 
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