The Biden Presidency

[thethe]

For reference we built less than half as many homes from 2008 - 2017 as we did from 1998-2007.

Population growth has outpaced construction for 20 years now. Even if we deported 10 million illegals tomorrow, we would still be in a housing shortage based on population.

Populatuion growth versus housing growth is not 1 for 1.

Population growth can be 10% and you'd only need 2-4% housing growth. But long term trends are showing population decrease so building homes at this point in time is a fools errand. Going to be a massive deflationary housing event assuming the illegals are kicked out of the country.

 

[Carp]

Kicking out illegals is a temporary fix. And practically speaking, it will take a long time to see much affect from it.

Realistically, we simply aren't going to see 5-10 million deportations under Trump in the next 4 years. Even when ICE was running heavy under Trump and Obama, the most deportations we has was 430k in 2013. Even if Trump starts mass deportations on Day 1, best case scenario we are looking at maybe 2-3 million deportations over the next 4 years. Not to mention, if Dems win in 2028, we are likely back in the same boat. You simply cannot count on deporting illegals as any sort of reliable solution to fix the current housing market.

Building houses is the more sustainable solution.

 

[thethe]

Kicking out illegals is a temporary fix. And practically speaking, it will take a long time to see much affect from it.

Realistically, we simply aren't going to see 5-10 million deportations under Trump in the next 4 years. Even when ICE was running heavy under Trump and Obama, the most deportations we has was 430k in 2013. Even if Trump starts mass deportations on Day 1, best case scenario we are looking at maybe 2-3 million deportations over the next 4 years. Not to mention, if Dems win in 2028, we are likely back in the same boat. You simply cannot count on deporting illegals as sort of reliable solution to fix the current housing market.

Building houses is the more sustainable solution.

I think the overton window has shifted on illegal migration masked as 'Asylum' [LOL] - I believe that elections will no longer be able to be stolen as they were in 2020.

I think that the western world is seeing how damaging unfettered migration is to their country.

The world is changing fast and the politics that runs countries will change accordingly.

I agree that the way we did deportations in the past is not enough. We will see if Trump follows through becuase we need to call back our military from overseas and activate the natiuonal guard becuase we need a military operation in our own borders to push out the invading army.

 

[sturg33]

Anyone believing Trump is gonna deport 10M people doesn't have their head on straight.

Housing supply is a huge issue. Governments don't allow them, and rich people don't want it bc it hurts their property values.

I'm in favor of deporting everyone and building tons of housing, but one of these is a much lower lift than the other

 

[thethe]

Anyone believing Trump is gonna deport 10M people doesn't have their head on straight.

Housing supply is a huge issue. Governments don't allow them, and rich people don't want it bc it hurts their property values.

I'm in favor of deporting everyone and building tons of housing, but one of these is a much lower lift than the other

There is absolutely no need for housing until population increases are shown (minus illegals).

But I know you're ready to move on to the next TDS narratives now that you see the writing ont he wall for the election.

I wonder what it will be when he starts deporting illegals.

 

[sturg33]

There is absolutely no need for housing until population increases are shown (minus illegals).

But I know you're ready to move on to the next TDS narratives now that you see the writing ont he wall for the election.

I wonder what it will be when he starts deporting illegals.

Why are you so opposed to new housing? More affordable homes for America is a bad thing? More good blue collar jobs is a bad thing?

And best yet, it doesn't requiring rounding up 10m people!

 

[Carp]

There is absolutely no need for housing until population increases are shown (minus illegals).

But I know you're ready to move on to the next TDS narratives now that you see the writing ont he wall for the election.

I wonder what it will be when he starts deporting illegals.

We have seen a population increase. Even if we assume there are 20 million illegal immigrants that we can deport (which is on the high end, as I don't find those numbers anywhere) we are still about 12% higher in population than we were 20 years ago. While the rate of non-illegal population growth has slowed considerably, we are not in danger of a population reduction any time soon.

Ask any economist. They will tell you we have a housing shortage. Housing is needed.

 

[thethe]

Why are you so opposed to new housing? More affordable homes for America is a bad thing? More good blue collar jobs is a bad thing?

And best yet, it doesn't requiring rounding up 10m people!

Because we will be in a situation where we continue to build homes that are empty once illegals are deported and we close the borders down.

Its going to take 30-40 years to fix our population declines.

 

[thethe]

We have seen a population increase. Even if we assume there are 20 million illegal immigrants that we can deport (which is on the high end, as I don't find those numbers anywhere) we are still about 12% higher in population than we were 20 years ago. While the rate of non-illegal population growth has slowed considerably, we are not in danger of a population reduction any time soon.

Ask any economist. They will tell you we have a housing shortage. Housing is needed.

Of course we need more housing. We have invited 20 million illegals into the country for the last 20 years and they had children.

This isn't rocket science.

Its basic math/economics.

 

[Carp]

Because we will be in a situation where we continue to build homes that are empty once illegals are deported and we close the borders down.

Its going to take 30-40 years to fix our population declines.

We have seen a decline in birth rate, not population rate (minus illegals). There is a difference.

If there is any sort of housing surplus crisis on the horizon, it is 20-30 years (or more) from now. Building more houses in the short term and then throttling back 10-15 years from now (assuming birth rates don't dramatically increase) should be the solution.

 

[thethe]

We have seen a decline in birth rate, not population rate (minus illegals). There is a difference.

We have such an underbelly of older people that are going to die in the next 20 years.

We have a reduction in life expectancy because of fatties now.

We have a young population not having sex and pairing up to have children.

There is absolutely population declines scheduled for the next 20-30 years.

 

[sturg33]

It's bizarre to me that MAGA man is so against making new houses so Americans have more affordable options

Must want to protect his house value

 

[thethe]

It's bizarre to me that MAGA man is so against making new houses so Americans have more affordable options

Must want to protect his house value

I live in Nassau County - My housing value will remain in tact regardless of what is done.

I just understand things like why housing is in a bubble. Remove 10 million illegals and PE is running to dump homes.

 

[sturg33]

I live in Nassau County - My housing value will remain in tact regardless of what is done.

I just understand things like why housing is in a bubble. Remove 10 million illegals and PE is running to dump homes.

Your IQ is just too high for us mere mortals

(As he says housing is solved once the orange man reports 20 million people)

 

[Carp]

We have such an underbelly of older people that are going to die in the next 20 years.

We have a reduction in life expectancy because of fatties now.

We have a young population not having sex and pairing up to have children.

There is absolutely population declines scheduled for the next 20-30 years.

There is a lot than can happen in the next 20-30 years. Trying to predict a housing inefficiency 2-3 decades from now is a fool's errand.

Building more houses in the short term and then throttling back 10-15 years from now (assuming birth rates don't dramatically increase) should be the solution.

 

[chop2chip]

I live in Nassau County - My housing value will remain in tact regardless of what is done.

I just understand things like why housing is in a bubble. Remove 10 million illegals and PE is running to dump homes.

10m is 3% of the US population. Majority of these people rent multi family housing. The price of building new housing will significantly rise because a significant portion of the construction labor force will no deported.

I don’t see how the math works out here that home prices will crater by only deporting illegals

 

[sturg33]

There is a lot than can happen in the next 20-30 years. Trying to predict a housing inefficiency 2-3 decades from now is a fool's errand.

Building more houses in the short term and then throttling back 10-15 years from now (assuming birth rates don't dramatically increase) should be the solution.

Thethe can simultaneously predict hosuing market efficiencies 3 decades from now while also solving the social security shortfall in 8 years with MOAR JOBS.

That he isn't personally advising Mr. Trump is a huge miss from the Trump campaign. Low IQ

 

[thethe]

10m is 3% of the US population. Majority of these people rent multi family housing. The price of building new housing will significantly rise because a significant portion of the construction labor force will no deported.

I don’t see how the math works out here that home prices will crater by only deporting illegals

Home building becomase cheaper with innovation as well. Prefabed homes will become more of the norm.

People are dying sooner and our old people will be dying in the 20 years that will cdrater the population.

 

[Carp]

Home building becomase cheaper with innovation as well. Prefabed homes will become more of the norm.

People are dying sooner and our old people will be dying in the 20 years that will cdrater the population.

Life expectancy in the USA is not decreasing, nor is it expected to. Certainly not by any significant margin. Health care today is the best it's ever been, even if the system is ****ty.

Edit: If you are using numbers from 2020-2022 during a pandemic to prove your point, you can pretty much throw those numbers out the window.

Breaking News: A deadly virus that is highly contagious makes old people die earlier than they normally would. More at 11:00

 

[sturg33]

Life expectancy in the USA is not decreasing, nor is it expected to. Certainly not by any significant margin. Health care today is the best it's ever been, even if the system is ****ty.

His entire policy success is based on Americans dying faster