The Biden Presidency

thethe said:
The real number far exceeds the subset you are running with - Thats why I took a conservative haircut of 60% from the topline number.
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60% of what? You aren't throwing out actual numbers?

How many homes are sitting empty that can't/aren't selling?

It's a straightforward question.
 
Carp said:
What states still had "lockdowns" in 2022?

Also, the data shows the FL is still the fastest growing area.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/03/florida-and-fast-growing-metros.html
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Are you seriouslyi asking that question?

There were still massive amounts of restrictions in NY/Cali (where a large outflow is going to FLorida) in 2022.

Florida has one of the oldest populations in the country and most live in builds that have been new in the last 10-20 years. When that natural recycling happens the amount of inventory in FLorida will be staggering.
 
nsacpi said:
These data provide housing starts vs household formation by decade (annual averages)

1950s 1.38 million houses stared and 0.92 million new households per year
1960s 1.51 and 1.06
1970s 1.71 and 1.60
1980s 1.49 and 0.98
1990s 1.31 and 1.04
2000s 1.62 and 1.08
2010s 1.05 and 0.98

Housing starts exceed household formation every decade. For a couple reasons. First, as some of you noted some people have multiple homes, including vacation homes. Second, there is some depletion of the housing stock due to houses getting old and unhabitable or being destroyed. So the net addition to the housing stock is smaller than housing starts.

It is worth looking at the difference between starts and household formation by decade.

1950s 0.46 million
1960s 0.45 million
1970s 0.11 million
1980s 0.51 million
1990s 0.27 million
2000s 0.54 million
2010s 0.07 million

These are national data. They don't tell us anything about individual states. But they do show that the 2010s stand out as a decade when building activity (housing starts) was unusually low relative to household formation.

The first 3 years of this decade have seen some rectification of this with starts exceeding household formation by 0.55 million per year.
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Nope. Just an immigration problem. Nothing to see here.
 
sturg33 said:
So we have a huge decrease in housing builds, and a huge increase in illegals, creating an affordability crisis.

There are two levers to pull to help solve this.

One if very easy

The other is very difficult.

Low IQ people want both.
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There hasn't been a surge in illegal immigration. That happened in the 1990s. What happened in the 2010s was mostly supply cratering in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
 
Carp said:
60% of what? You aren't throwing out actual numbers?

How many homes are sitting empty that can't/aren't selling?

It's a straightforward question.
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5.1% for sale
16.7% for rent
37.1% 'Other' which includes a portion of foreclosers/homes that need work while the rest are unihabitable.

That gets you well above the threshold you think.
 
thethe said:
Are you seriouslyi asking that question?

There were still massive amounts of restrictions in NY/Cali (where a large outflow is going to FLorida) in 2022.

Florida has one of the oldest populations in the country and most live in builds that have been new in the last 10-20 years. When that natural recycling happens the amount of inventory in FLorida will be staggering.
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That literally is not what ANY of the data suggests.

But again, TX and FL probably don't need to ramp production of new homes as they have already done so. And guess what? It is working. They aren't facing a housing crisis.

In the rest of the US, however, housing is not keeping up with population growth.
 
thethe said:
That graph is showing a strong increase in days for hte last 2 years.

Thanks for sharing.

Long term trends for Florida won't look good....
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Further - The graph clearly shows pandemic inspired migration distorted the true Florida housing market. Just as I said....
 
Carp said:
That literally is not what ANY of the data suggests.

But again, TX and FL probably don't need to ramp production of new homes as they have already done so. And guess what? It is working. They aren't facing a housing crisis.

In the rest of the US, however, housing is not keeping up with population growth.
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Working in that they have massive amounts of unsold inventory....
 
thethe said:
That graph is showing a strong increase in days for hte last 2 years.

Thanks for sharing.

Long term trends for Florida won't look good....
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Spin, spin, spin.

Proven wrong at every turn and refusing to look at actual proof. Classic thethe.
 
Carp said:
Spin, spin, spin.

Proven wrong at every turn and refusing to look at actual proof. Classic thethe.
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Oh tell me what part of that analysis where Florida just had a blip of pandemic inspired inflation and now are seeing increases of unsold invnetory just sitting on the market....
 
chop2chip said:
Yes. From basically zero to only lower than the previous decade. Epic disaster
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And increasing - And will continue to increase to historical levels.

Guess they should have thought about that when they built absurd amounts of homes that will remain unsold for years.

Just wait till people start moving back to NY/Cali and if NY continues to make movements towareds the right they will see a MASSIVE amount of inflow migration.
 
thethe said:
And increasing - And will continue to increase to historical levels.

Guess they should have thought about that when they built absurd amounts of homes that will remain unsold for years.

Just wait till people start moving back to NY/Cali and if NY continues to make movements towareds the right they will see a MASSIVE amount of inflow migration.
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Once again advocating for FL to adopt the policies of Cali and NY

haha
 
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