The Biden Presidency

[sturg33]

Ok, but that’s fine.

Developers take that chance when they get in business.

Stop helping bailouts

Yup - if builders are overbuilding. They will get hit by LOWERING PRICES which will help Americans afford a home.

Just don't bail them out if they refuse

Meanwhile, California should could use some building. But thethe would rather wait a decade instead

 

[thethe]

Ok, but that’s fine.

Developers take that chance when they get in business.

Stop helping bailouts

I don't want a bailout - Thats why we need to slow down on future building considering we are about to deport millions of people who are occupying homes in the next 10 years.

 

[acesfull86]

Who TF is “we?”

 

[thethe]

Who TF is “we?”

We as a country need to be smart about what our housing demand is going to look like the next 10+ years.

Eventually all the money will be out of real estate naturally because there are so many unoccupied homes and prices will reset - especially after we deport millions of illegals helping prop it up via artificial demand spikes.

 

[Tapate50]

I don’t know many illegals buying 350k homes

 

[thethe]

I don’t know many illegals buying 350k homes

No - They are renting homes for cash which props up property values that PE is buying and ramping up overall prices.

 

[zitothebrave]

Thats why I said take a haircut.

We have plenty of supply right now of homes in many areas.

We just need to deport illegals occupying others and costs will plummet.

if Illegals are living in rented homes that probably is a home that's not really wanted by the average home buyer.

 

[nsacpi]

These data provide housing starts vs household formation by decade (annual averages)

1950s 1.38 million houses stared and 0.92 million new households per year
1960s 1.51 and 1.06
1970s 1.71 and 1.60
1980s 1.49 and 0.98
1990s 1.31 and 1.04
2000s 1.62 and 1.08
2010s 1.05 and 0.98

Housing starts exceed household formation every decade. For a couple reasons. First, as some of you noted some people have multiple homes, including vacation homes. Second, there is some depletion of the housing stock due to houses getting old and unhabitable or being destroyed. So the net addition to the housing stock is smaller than housing starts.

It is worth looking at the difference between starts and household formation by decade.

1950s 0.46 million
1960s 0.45 million
1970s 0.11 million
1980s 0.51 million
1990s 0.27 million
2000s 0.54 million
2010s 0.07 million

These are national data. They don't tell us anything about individual states. But they do show that the 2010s stand out as a decade when building activity (housing starts) was unusually low relative to household formation.

The first 3 years of this decade have seen some rectification of this with starts exceeding household formation by 0.55 million per year.

 

[thethe]

if Illegals are living in rented homes that probably is a home that's not really wanted by the average home buyer.

Nonsense - Its all related within this market segment.

The demand on all of these homes results in higher property values which results in more PE.

 

[Tapate50]

No - They are renting homes for cash which props up property values that PE is buying and ramping up overall prices.

Sounds like PE needs their heads checked.

They have been overpaying for models and businesses for years now making huge returns. They will be ok

 

[sturg33]

These data provide housing starts vs household formation by decade (annual averages)

1950s 1.38 million houses stared and 0.92 million new households per year
1960s 1.51 and 1.06
1970s 1.71 and 1.60
1980s 1.49 and 0.98
1990s 1.31 and 1.04
2000s 1.62 and 1.08
2010s 1.05 and 0.98

Housing starts exceed household formation every decade. For a couple reasons. First, as some of you noted some people have multiple homes, including vacation homes. Second, there is some depletion of the housing stock due to houses getting old and unhabitable or being destroyed. So the net addition to the housing stock is smaller than housing starts.

It is worth look at the difference between starts and household formation by decade.

1950s 0.46 million
1960s 0.45 million
1970s 0.11 million
1980s 0.51 million
1990s 0.27 million
2000s 0.54 million
2010s 0.07 million

These are national data. They don't tell us anything about individual states. But they do show that the 2010s stand out as a decade when building activity (housing starts) was unusually low relative to household formation.

So we have a huge decrease in housing builds, and a huge increase in illegals, creating an affordability crisis.

There are two levers to pull to help solve this.

One if very easy

The other is very difficult.

Low IQ people want both.

 

[thethe]

Sounds like PE needs their heads checked.

They have been overpaying for models and businesses for years now making huge returns. They will be ok

When you have the ability to scale an overpayment is irrelevant when you're looking at a 20-30 year investment. They have lawyers on staff for eviction proceedings. They have construction crews on staff for fixes. They have property managers on staff to vet/get new tenants.

All things that price out the low end buyer.

 

[Carp]

Thats already included in the article around 35% and not included in the haircutted figures I referenced.

What is 35%? Abandoned homes that will never sell in any market?

What your article tells me is that there are 800k homes empty and for sale and less than 2.5 million homes empty and currently not renting (as of 2022). And these are national numbers

And, yet, you think this HELPS your argument?

 

[chop2chip]

You can't go picking and choosing which parts you like and then try to apply to current day data.

Why not?

 

[thethe]

What is 35%. Abandoned homes that will never sell in any market?

What your article tells me is that there are 800k homes empty and for sale and less than 2.5 million homes empty and currently not renting (as of 2022). And these are national numbers

And, yet, you think this HELPS your argument?

The article says that there are 800K for homes CURRENTLY ON THE MARKET UNSOLD. That doesn't account for all the homes that have been taken off the market that have been unable to sell.

The unlivable homes is another subset that is not being included.

 

[Carp]

The projections on population growth of Texas/Florida will come back to bite a lot of developers in the ass.

Especially if we get a follow through on the deportations.

Tell me these projections. And not from 1 random source you had dig 5 pages deep on google for. Let's see a compilation of different population growth projections.

Cause as of 2023, FL was the fastest growing state in the nation, population wise.

https://www.voanews.com/a/7002666.html

 

[thethe]

Tell me these projections. And not from 1 random source you had dig 5 pages deep on google for. Let's see a compilation of different population growth projections.

Cause as of 2023, FL was the fastest growing state in the nation, population wise.

https://www.voanews.com/a/7002666.html

Yes - in 2022 when states still had lockdowns Florida had a growing population that exceeded its normal trends.

Is this a new piece of information that I didn't address numerous times?

 

[Carp]

The article says that there are 800K for homes CURRENTLY ON THE MARKET UNSOLD. That doesn't account for all the homes that have been taken off the market that have been unable to sell.

The unlivable homes is another subset that is not being included.

If they were taken off the market and unable to sell, they would still be apart of the total figures somewhere, if they were empty.

Do you have a clue on how many houses that actually is or are you just guessing, like all your other fake numbers?

 

[thethe]

If they were taken off the market and unable to sell, they would still be apart of the total figures somewhere, if they were empty.

Do you have a clue on how many houses that actually is or are you just guessing, like all your other fake numbers?

The real number far exceeds the subset you are running with - Thats why I took a conservative haircut of 60% from the topline number.

 

[Carp]

Yes - in 2022 when states still had lockdowns Florida had a growing population that exceeded its normal trends.

Is this a new piece of information that I didn't address numerous times?

What states still had "lockdowns" in 2022?

Also, the data shows the FL is still the fastest growing area.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/03/florida-and-fast-growing-metros.html