GDT 7/7/24: Braves vs Phillies - 8 or 10 GB

Over the last month, the Phillies have been a .500 team. And their schedule is pretty brutal from here on out. Their insane luck they were getting on pitching and hitting has finally reverted the other way.


Meanwhile, we knew our offense was going to rebound eventually. It looks like it's starting to now. If SS has finally given us stability out of the 5th spot in the rotation and the offense hits like they are capable of. Despite our ****ty luck, we are a better team and are playing better than they are currently. We have a fairly easy schedule for the next roughly 2 months, which should probably get easier as teams like the Reds, Giants, Nationals, and Marlins sell at the deadline. Plenty of time to make up ground.
 
I always like winning the division but I honestly think playing in the wild card round could help us in October. If we finish with the top WC spot we get a 3 game series at home. If we can't win that with our big 3 starting we weren't going to win in the Division round anyways. I think a win in the WC round gives us some positive momentum going into the DS. Last 2 years I think the pressure got to the hitters. Ideally we win in the WC round in 2 games and Lopez starts game 1 of the DS with Sale/Fried ready to follow on regular rest.
 
i just don't see the offense as good yet. They have scored some runs in a few games, but even those runs have been in 1-2 innings and powered by homers.. Which is a great thing, but the team still can't situational hit and strikes out way too much to be productive in October when runs are even harder to come by and the weather is cooler.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
i just don't see the offense as good yet. They have scored some runs in a few games, but even those runs have been in 1-2 innings and powered by homers.. Which is a great thing, but the team still can't situational hit and strikes out way too much to be productive in October when runs are even harder to come by and the weather is cooler.
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I think we're seeing signs. When wr get fat boy back in cf, and add a lhh to platoon, I think the offense takes off.
 
msstate7 said:
I think we're seeing signs. When wr get fat boy back in cf, and add a lhh to platoon, I think the offense takes off.
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I agree, balls are at least going out of the park versus out on the track.. but there is still 70-80% of the game that the offense just rolls over and does nothing.. way too many times have we seen 2nd and 3rd with no outs and not a single run.. those are the signs of an offense still not clicking and not having any approach at the plate.

and I am hoping we have someone working with chunky while he is out.. otherwise it will look like Gohard out in center when he returns..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I agree, balls are at least going out of the park versus out on the track.. but there is still 70-80% of the game that the offense just rolls over and does nothing.. way too many times have we seen 2nd and 3rd with no outs and not a single run.. those are the signs of an offense still not clicking and not having any approach at the plate.

and I am hoping we have someone working with chunky while he is out.. otherwise it will look like Gohard out in center when he returns..
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Perhaps we will have our lh platoon in lf once his hamstring is healthy from toting that massive weight around.
 
Here's a few record observations I have made in the last week or so.

In scoring runs, the Braves are 32-7 when scoring 5 or more. That is not particularly unusual. The more interesting stat is in allowing runs.

When the Braves allow 4 or more runs, the team is 6-32. And if you think I grouped 4 allowed unfairly - the Braves are 2-11 when giving up exactly 4 runs. This speaks directly to a poor, or at least inconsistent offense. Compare to last season's offense (the best in history) of 42-51 in those games. Allowing 4-8 runs still netted a winning record in 2023.

Tied to this is the starting pitching team wins and losses. When the big 3 start the team is 34-15. When anyone else pitches they are 15-24. Morton is 6-10, Strider 2-0, and the AAAA shuttle is 7-14. Schwelly has pitched better of late but I feel like the Braves need to limit some of these starts. Most of the top pitchers in MLB have 18 or 19 starts at this point, and the team has given the most to the AAAA guys, collectively.

The Braves have successfully managed innings but now it's time to go all in and make sure the playoffs are secured. I want to see a normal 5-man rotation from here until 9/1 at least.
 
this team can make the playoffs without going all in on pitching innings/starts. I would almost go in the opposite direction and look at doing more at reducing innings. AJSS and Ian could fill in some gaps as they come back... I don't give a crap about the useless division title. It hold zero advantage when you factor in the way too long lay off.
 
We are 14-9 in the 23 games since breaking out of that terrible skid from May-early June. And our schedule gets much easier from here on out.
 
Also, Kelenic has been rocking a .872 OPS over his last 40 games. Riley is rocking a .934 OPS since the start of June. Ozzie is starting to get hot. Olson has smoked a few recently without much to show, but hopefully yesterday was a harbinger of better days ahead.
 
Carp said:
Also, Kelenic has been rocking a .872 OPS over his last 40 games. Riley is rocking a .934 OPS since the start of June. Ozzie is starting to get hot. Olson has smoked a few recently without much to show, but hopefully yesterday was a harbinger of better days ahead.
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You had me at harbinger
 
The Braves rank #5 in SP WAR and #7 in BP WAR. Last year at this time Elder was going to start Game 3 of the playoffs. That is not the case this year, so this narrative that the Braves need to spend resources on pitching is misguided.

The Braves are #15 in position player WAR, and #14 in total wRC at 100. They are an exactly average offense this season so far. It is clear they need to add some hitting, and the obvious place is in the OF vs RHP. Spending the limited resources anywhere else is a suboptimal move...unless they can miraculously find a SS, which is unlikely.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves rank #5 in SP WAR and #7 in BP WAR. Last year at this time Elder was going to start Game 3 of the playoffs. That is not the case this year, so this narrative that the Braves need to spend resources on pitching is misguided.

The Braves are #15 in position player WAR, and #14 in total wRC at 100. They are an exactly average offense this season so far. It is clear they need to add some hitting, and the obvious place is in the OF vs RHP. Spending the limited resources anywhere else is a suboptimal move...unless they can miraculously find a SS, which is unlikely.
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What would help even more than an OF who can hit RHP is their stars at least hitting to their career averages.
 
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