2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
The pollsters that were rated 2nd, 4th and 5th have polls (Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen) showing Trump is winning over Harris. Atalsintel has not done a poll with Trump/Harris yet.
This is from 538
Out of curosity, do those same pollsters rate as highly over a series of elections? 2020 is obviously the most recent Presidential election, but it’s a bit of a strange election cycle for the sole source of a pollster’s merit.
Runnin
Well-known member
It's like a rising sea of blue.
We know that, so far, Harris is polling a good bit worse than Biden did in 2020 overall. And that was an election that he narrowly won by winning key swing states by less than 1%. And in several of those swing states, he had 4-5 point polling leads right before the election.
Harris has a ALOT of ground to make up in if those trends hold true again.
Harris has a ALOT of ground to make up in if those trends hold true again.
Sorry if this has been posted. If true he’s a loser.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign reached out to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign to arrange a meeting about a possible role in her administration if he drops out of the race and endorses her, a Kennedy campaign official and a Democratic official told CNN.
The approach from Kennedy’s team occurred last week, and no meeting between the two candidates materialized, the Kennedy campaign official told CNN.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign reached out to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign to arrange a meeting about a possible role in her administration if he drops out of the race and endorses her, a Kennedy campaign official and a Democratic official told CNN.
The approach from Kennedy’s team occurred last week, and no meeting between the two candidates materialized, the Kennedy campaign official told CNN.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
So where are these emails supposedly hacked from the Trump campaign. Hillary's emails were fair game in 2016 but all of a sudden the media wont release Trump campaign emails. We all know the fake news media got ahold of Kamalas emails they would be posted even if they had to use a third party to get them out there. They should give the Trump campaign 14 days to provide PHYSICAL proof that they were hacked by Iran or they will release the emails. I dont know ifs true but some people say Trumps vetting of JD Vance showed he had a fetish for having big burly male Truck Drivers **** right into his mouth. Is this true. I dont know. Some people are saying thats whats in there. Only one way for us to find out.
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I didnt get to respond to this at the time because my internet was out and I only had my phone to post with.
1. Sure. Illegal immigration was falling massively before Trump even took office. 1990 we had over 1 million illegal immigrants coming here. In 2000 it was 1.6 million, As recently as 2005 it was 1.6 million. Then it fell dramatically. By the time Trump came into office illegal border crossing were at the lowest level in atleast 30 years. Obama averaged 422k per year. Trump admin averaged 494k per year. It has since exploded but that first spike was during Trumps term. He had 859k in 2019 which was more than in any year under Obama. You dont like illegal immigration thats fine but Trump took an issue that wasnt a problem and now it is a problem(to some). Congrats, you people played yourself. Would we have the current surge if not for the spotlight Trump put on the issue? How is it Trump is tough on the border but Obama who let in far fewer people and Bush who was president during a massive decrease in illegal immigration gets no credit? Bush cut it from 1.6 million in 2000 to half that when he left office and it kept falling.
2. Cool, he will deport a million a year while 500k new or the same ones enter. Will deportations go up? Sure. Will they get even 20% of the illegal immigrats. No.
3. Lets see how this jives with his other plans. Do you know what illegal immigrants provide? Cheap labor. Do you know what happens when people have to pay more to get the same work done? Inflation. He wont make a significant dent in the illegal immigrant population but if he did it would lead to serious inflation.
4. Crude oil production nearly doubled under Obama. Its at its highest level ever in 2023 under Biden. The rate of increase in oil production slowed down under Trump. Natural gas production rose 50% under Obama and has gone up 11% since Trump left office. Natural gas production went up 25% under Trump in 4 years matching the pace of Obama admin. What this really is is demand dropped like a rock during Covid making the US temporarily net positive in energy and Trump and his fake news allies claim that he made the US energy independent and an exporter of energy. Dont complain about the media or fake news if you believe this **** or listen to media who intentionally cite this misleading info to make some people(the dumb ones) think he actually accomplished energy independence. I can only guess that his plan is to release a new virus that forces people to stay home thus making us energy independent again. Thats the only way he accomplishes it and you know it.
5. Why didnt he do this the first time around? He had both sides of Congress his first 2 years. Who is going to work these jobs since unemployment is at record lows and he plans to get rid of all the illegal immigrants? Do you know why they ship these jobs overseas? Because its cheaper for the company. Do you know what happens when it costs more to produce their products? Inflation.
6. All for it. But I cant help but notice theres no commitment to lower the yearly budget. So he plans to decrease revenue significantly without cutting spending. Class, what does that lead to. Say it with me.... inflation. National deficit under Trump incased 8.18 trillion in 4 years. 8 years under Obama it increased 8.34 trillion. So far in 3 years under Biden its increased 6.17 trillion. All for the tax cuts, just not for doing it without cutting spending an equal amount.
7. Thats just comical. For starters he is the most anti free speech guy. Second, he almost got second amendmented a month ago by a gun he and his party want everyone to be able to posses. These people like to talk a lot about the second amendment but when someone actually grabs their gun and starts shooting they didnt seem to be too supportive of it. He wants to defend the second amendment? Okay. Let Trump supporters bring guns to his rallies. Let people bring guns into Maralago. Let them bring it into the white house when he is President. If more guns means more safety then practice what you preach. Why is it for Trumps safety only law enforcement can have gun within a mile radius of Trump but for everyone else they are supposed to live in the wild west.
8. Prevent world war 3 by surrendering to Russia and helping Israel genocide the Palestinians. Great plan. The iron dome defense is just a talking point. He aint gonna build it and it would be massively expensive if he did and take a long ass time. He has no plans to deliver. Just trying to promise everyone a pony.
9. I would be all for this. Except thats not what he means. He means him and his supporters being above the law. No one loves the weaponization of government more than Trump. Beyond that what exactly is the plan here. Get into office, pardon himself from federal crimes. Pardon the J6 terrorists including the ones who committed violent crimes. Fire any prosecutor or official who investigates anyone on the right while he is in office. Then what. He and his cult are still liable for state charges. They are still liable for federal crimes after he leaves office. There can only be an "end" if there some kind of legislation passed. And whats that going to be, no politican can ever be investigated or charged with a crime? How do you immunize Trump from prosecution without doing so for other politicians? How do you immunize only his supporters from prosecution without doing so for others too? I get the plan while in office is just to obstruct justice for himself and people he likes, but Republicans will not hold the Presidency forever.
10. Why didnt he do this the first time around? Crushing the cartels is just empty promises to people to stupid to understand its just making promises he wont deliver on. Might as well say he will build the fastest space ship ever seen and we will colonize Jupiters moons. Same chance of happening.
11. Again, why didnt he do this the first time around. That sounds like a lot of spending too. Spoiler, he will do nothing, claim he fixed it, and sic his rabid cult on anyone who dares to say otherwise.
12. I am personally still waiting on proof the military was out of bullets when he took office. We have already been through this. By rebuilding he means a 3-4% increase in spending per year. If you think thats the difference between a top notch military and one in disarray you arent a serious person. Military spending did go up under Trump but its silly to say it needed rebuilding or that the small increase achieved that. We spend more than the rest of the world combined on military. He should be focusing on making the military more cost efficient rather than throwing money at it. I guess they need a few gold plated toilet seats but I dont see how that will make us safer.
13. Sure.
14. Good to know he will protect socialism.
15. Dont care.
16. Again, why didnt he do this the first time. I dont want a lot of those things in our schools but I also dont want propaganda for either side. He supports using tax payer money to fund kids going to religious schools. That is not religious freedom whatsoever. I get the a lot of you people want to indoctrinate your kids but you dont need school to do that for you. What about the kids constitutional rights. Imagine something happened to you and your kids got put in foster care. Then they were sent to live with an Islamic family and they want to send the kid to an islamic school and force their religion on them. They have the parental rights at that point. Is it right for them to force that on the kid? What if a kid of Islamic parents wants to be Christian and his parents force an Islamic school on him? People love religious indoctrination as long as its their religion being forced on people. Not so much when its another religion.
17. I agree.
18. The guy who says he is going to protect freedom of speech wants to deport people for using that speech to support a side Trump doesnt like. Just mind boggling. Are the college campuses not safe? What exactly is his plan there to make them safe and "patriotic" again. Is Mr. Free Speech going to punish people for their speech if its not patriotic enough?
19. Again, why didnt he do this last time. And how exactly does he plan to enact this? Again its just promising things he knows are popular with his base that he knows he cant deliver on. He has control over most of the party and has ANY red state done all of this? If a red state with near full control over the state cand/wont enact this exact thing how am I supposed to believe Trump will get that done for the whole country.
20. lol
All of this and I have to ask, what are the plans for achieving these. What mechanisms will he use to do this stuff. Wheres the legislation? Its all well and great to say this stuff but he has no plan on achieving them. Where is the policy and legislative proposals?
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
The pollsters that were rated 2nd, 4th and 5th have polls (Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen) showing Trump is winning over Harris. Atalsintel has not done a poll with Trump/Harris yet.
This is from 538
I dont know how you people can cite polls for accuracy when you dont even believe the results are legitimate. And if you want to talk about accuracy I was as accurate as anyone. I got 48 out of 50 states correct with the two I was wrong about also being the two I had the closest to 50/50 chance.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The pollsters that were rated 2nd, 4th and 5th have polls (Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen) showing Trump is winning over Harris. Atalsintel has not done a poll with Trump/Harris yet.
This is from 538
How come FOX isn't on the list of rated pollsters. They have a good rep. The FOX poll has always been jointly done by one pollster who generally works for republicans and one for dems.
If it was anything damaging it would have already been released. Just like totally legit video of Trump saying the N word on secret footage from the Apprentice.
Picking the states isn't super hard. At least 40 of the 50 states are virtually guaranteed to one party or the other in the current era of politics. That leaves roughly 10 states or less that are true swing states. But polling for these states generally gives you a good idea of how they are leaning. I bet you weren't nearly that accurate in 2016.
It's much more impressive to predict the percentages, which is what this chart reflects. Biden had large poll leads in MI, PA, and WI heading into the election in 2020. Yet Biden narrowly won all of those states. WI was decided by 20k votes.
This race is always what it was. A Trump landslide and it will grow.
If you’re foolish enough to buy d+10 polls then I can’t help you.
I think the answer is *shockingly* in the middle. I think the pivot to Harris has turned this back into a toss-up and both sides are just very selectively looking at numbers that support their narrative. Trump remains a deeply unpopular figure amongst non-conservatives and the lingering effects of inflation will make the race otherwise unfriendly to Dems.
If you think you’ve figured out the secret to predicting a Trump landslide with the current polling, I think you’re stuck in an echo chamber.