A Tale of Two Surprising Success Stories

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
The start of the 2014 season has seen two very surprising success stories at starting pitcher.

1) Pitcher 1 has a new pitch and is using it a lot. The other has pretty much the same repertoire.
2) Pitcher 1 is generating about 10% more groundballs than his career average. The other is generating more flyballs than ever.
3) Pitcher 2 has an extraordinarily low BABIP, HR rate and high strand rate. Not so with the other.
4) Pitcher 2 is throwing his fastball at the same velocity as recent years. Pitcher 1 is throwing at a lower velocity, having made the choice to sacrifice velocity in exchange for more consistent command in the lower part of the strike zone. Even having made that choice, pitcher 1's average fastball velocity is higher than pitcher 2's average fastball velocity.
5) Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger.
6) Pitcher 1 has a significantly lower xFIP.

Ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that pitcher 1 is much, much more likely to remain successful the rest of this year.

If the Braves had pitcher 1, I would not be so anxious to replace him with Gavin Floyd in the rotation, even if he had a bad game or two. In the case of pitcher 2, I would remove him from the rotation as soon as feasible.
 
I find it very amusing that you really want to replace Harang. I understand the statistical/scouting analysis justifies considering the move but you can't take somebody out of the rotation that is putting up zeros like Harang is doing now. He needs to have two bad starts before its even considered a realistic move IMO.
 
Couple games ago, Glavine made a very astute comment for all you stat heads to consider. "If a pitcher can put up 200 innings in a season, all else will take care of itself."

Even if Harang evens out to even slightly above career norms he should have no problem putting 200 in the books barring injury. Floyd OTOH, starting tomorrow has virtually no shot at 200.
 
thethe said:
I find it very amusing that you really want to replace Harang. I understand the statistical/scouting analysis justifies considering the move but you can't take somebody out of the rotation that is putting up zeros like Harang is doing now. He needs to have two bad starts before its even considered a realistic move IMO.
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Why are you assuming Harang is pitcher 2. Maybe he is pitcher 1. Or neither. Or all of the above. Maybe I made up both these pitchers.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Couple games ago, Glavine made a very astute comment for all you stat heads to consider. "If a pitcher can put up 200 innings in a season, all else will take care of itself."

Even if Harang evens out to even slightly above career norms he should have no problem putting 200 in the books barring injury. Floyd OTOH, starting tomorrow has virtually no shot at 200.
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Sorry to disagree but Glavine's comment doesn't strike me as saying anything profound or even interesting. There have been bad 200 inning seasons. I'll cite Bronson Arroyo 2011 season (well he only pitched 199 innings that year) as a recent example and leave it at that.
 
nsacpi said:
The start of the 2014 season has seen two very surprising success stories at starting pitcher.

1) Pitcher 1 has a new pitch and is using it a lot. The other has pretty much the same repertoire.
2) Pitcher 1 is generating about 10% more groundballs than his career average. The other is generating more flyballs than ever.
3) Pitcher 2 has an extraordinarily low BABIP, HR rate and high strand rate. Not so with the other.
4) Pitcher 2 is throwing his fastball at the same velocity as recent years. Pitcher 1 is throwing at a lower velocity, having made the choice to sacrifice velocity in exchange for more consistent command in the lower part of the strike zone. Even having made that choice, pitcher 1's average fastball velocity is higher than pitcher 2's average fastball velocity.
5) Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger.
6) Pitcher 1 has a significantly lower xFIP.

Ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that pitcher 1 is much, much more likely to remain successful the rest of this year.

If the Braves had pitcher 1, I would not be so anxious to replace him with Gavin Floyd in the rotation, even if he had a bad game or two. In the case of pitcher 2, I would remove him from the rotation as soon as feasible.
Click to expand...

Pitcher 1 isn't a Brave. Maholm? I don't know, I gotta go to church.
 
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