There was no shortage of ambition among Austin's homebuilders, however. Their efforts may have been focused on chasing all the profit that comes with a crush of demand, but they ended up doing what hopeful buyers had been praying for — bringing down home prices. The typical home price in Austin was down almost 4% in July compared with the same month in 2023, according to the Freddie Mac House Price Index, while prices across the US were up more than 4%. On the one hand, a single-digit drop like Austin's "is not a huge number," Sean Kelly-Rand, a Boston lender who works with home developers, told me, adding: "On the other hand, that's massive." Overall, Austin home prices are down more than 14% from the peak in 2022, according to Freddie Mac, and more than 18% according to Zillow.
Homeowners and -builders don't like to see price drops — they want to watch their wealth balloon and reap the rewards of a market that's running red hot. But just like a collapse in prices is bad news for everyone, an unsustainable run-up in home values is also unhealthy. Companies don't want to move to a place where workers can't afford to live. Wannabe sellers might choose to stay in homes they've outgrown if they can't find anything else within their budget. Add up all these problems and you get San Francisco. A crash in home prices would've also been bad news for Austin, sure, but that's not what's going on here. The vast majority of homeowners in Austin are still wealthier than they were before all this craziness, and local homebuilders made plenty of hay while the sun was shining. For that reason, Austin's slowdown isn't a doom signal — it's a dazzling success.
"It's nice to see the positive developments in Austin," Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow, told me. "Austin should be a model for the rest of the country in terms of allowing builders to meet demand."
Austin's long-standing advantages were on full display during the building boom: Sun Belt cities in the lower half of the US have traditionally been more permissive of growth, which enabled developers to mobilize when they saw the first signs of Austin's unprecedented spike in home values. And most of the new construction was concentrated in the suburbs, where there was plenty of space to build outward. Not all cities have the luxury of ample space, but they do have the power to cut red tape and make it easier to build more types of housing. When developers can get projects approved more quickly, they're more responsive to buyer demand, which prevents prices from getting out of hand. Relaxing the zoning laws, which tell builders what they can and can't build, allows developers to get creative and add multiple housing units to lots that might have traditionally allowed only single-family homes.
Nobody watching the Austin market should be having flashbacks to the Great Recession. The market's cooling is less a disturbing sign of cratering demand and more a hopeful hint that the city can adapt to people's desire to call it home.
"I think Austin is going to be fine in the medium to long run," Jenny Schuetz, a housing-policy expert at the Brookings Institution, told me. "The fundamentals of Austin's economy are great, and it's going to continue to grow with jobs and population over time."
Austin should be a model for the rest of the country in terms of allowing builders to meet demand.
In fact, easing the housing crunch will probably add to Austin's allure, which has always been at least partly predicated on being cheaper than the big cities on the coasts. The next challenge will be to avoid forfeiting this success — homebuilding is prone to cycles of booms and busts, and developers are already pulling back on new construction as they try to get their already-built units off their books. Home prices in Austin may be down year over year today, but it's not like there's a glut of empty homes like there was around the country in 2008. If building in Austin dries up, prices may very well resume their rise.
Kelly-Rand, the Boston lender, thought about making inroads in Austin a few years ago when the building renaissance was in full swing. But ultimately, he decided not to — buyers' behavior was too frenzied for his taste, and prices seemed likely to come down when all those homes on the horizon actually got built. Nevertheless, Kelly-Rand told me he's still a believer in the Texas capital.
"Long term, I think Austin will be in an even better position," Kelly-Rand told me. "I think the right thing is happening in that developers are meeting demand."
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