REAL FOOTBALL Thread

[zitothebrave]

He was a physical unicorn but he wasn’t as physically dominant as Vernon Davis was and he was just a good TE for a while. I believe it took him a while to make the leap to just good as well.

When you have major holes, TE is a luxury pick.

Jamar Chase was the choice there

I wanted Sewell. I think hindsight tells you Chase because of the Ridley situation, but Ridley looked like a decent 1. But to me it should have been Sewell. McGary is a solid OT but Sewell is the best RT in the NFL and probably could take over LT when Matthews retired. I wanted him then. I still feel vindicated he is one of the best picks in that whole draft.

Though looking back in full what our team sucks at, Micah is who we should have taken. And then we should have taken Amon-Ra in the 4th round instead of Darren Hall, but that's full retro. With that knowledge Amon-Ra goes top 5 and none of those QBs get drafted that high.

Falcons wanted Trey Lance and the Niners sniped him. Thankfully for us.

 

[zitothebrave]

Terry Fontenot really needs to be fired. Pitts and Bijan would have to be generational players to be worth their pick. Pitts is mediocre and Bijan is good but doesn't look elite.

Then there's London who has pretty much shown he's not a WR1. He's basically a tall slot receiver.

Three top 10 picks and zero elite players. Fontenot has to go.

Bijan I still think will be elite. I think we haven't figured out how to use him yet. He's so freaking talented. Remember that time Cousins botched that handoff and he onehanded grabbed it behind him. He's so talented.

London was a meh pick but that was an all time **** draft.

He, Olave, Wilson, and Pickens have all been close in productivity. Pickens is a loon so I understand why he fell.

In a redraft I'd rather have traded out and gotten Tyler SMith or Trent McDuffie but again in a redraft they'd have gone much higher.

At least on the brightside, we're not Jacksonville who picked top of the draft both of those drafts and got Lawrence who looks like a bust and Trayvon Walker over Aiden Hutchinson.

 

[striker42]

Bijan I still think will be elite. I think we haven't figured out how to use him yet. He's so freaking talented. Remember that time Cousins botched that handoff and he onehanded grabbed it behind him. He's so talented.

London was a meh pick but that was an all time **** draft.

He, Olave, Wilson, and Pickens have all been close in productivity. Pickens is a loon so I understand why he fell.

In a redraft I'd rather have traded out and gotten Tyler SMith or Trent McDuffie but again in a redraft they'd have gone much higher.

At least on the brightside, we're not Jacksonville who picked top of the draft both of those drafts and got Lawrence who looks like a bust and Trayvon Walker over Aiden Hutchinson.

I'd have gone with Olave if we had to pick a WR. Dude can fly. I was out on London the second he decided not to run the 40. He claimed it was his ankle but if the ankle was healthy enough to run all over the field and catch at his pro day, it was healthy enough to run in a straight line.

He didn't run the 40 because he's slow and knew putting up a 4.60+ would drop him a round. Watching him play I think 4.70 is a real possibility. If he'd done that he probably drops to the third.

As for Bijan, I haven't seen him run with any real burst or violence this year. He runs at a hole and gets tackled. Stats back it up. His mere 4.1 yards per carry is good for 45th among RBs. Allgeier outstrips him by 2 yards a carry so you can't blame the line.

 

[Carp]

T-Law isn't a bust, imo. He just isn't quite the generational talent he was made to be. Part of that is the Jags being the Jags though. They still have a bottom 5 OL in year 4 for T-Law. They have simply been absolutely dreadful at drafting and collecting talent for T-Law.

 

[Tapate50]

Terry Fontenot really needs to be fired. Pitts and Bijan would have to be generational players to be worth their pick. Pitts is mediocre and Bijan is good but doesn't look elite.

Then there's London who has pretty much shown he's not a WR1. He's basically a tall slot receiver.

Three top 10 picks and zero elite players. Fontenot has to go.

Bijan can be elite. When he gets going, he runs like peak Gurley.

 

[zitothebrave]

T-Law isn't a bust, imo. He just isn't quite the generational talent he was made to be. Part of that is the Jags being the Jags though. They still have a bottom 5 OL in year 4 for T-Law. They have simply been absolutely dreadful at drafting and collecting talent for T-Law.

I dunno, I see what you're saying, and the Jags are all time stupid (the Ridley situation is a great example where they had someone Lawrence vibed with and they tried to game a draft pick and got fleeced in FA) but some of it falls to him too. I would say most of it. He was touted as the next thing. And he's so mid. He seems much more like David Carr and much less like Carson Palmer.

 

[gilesfan]

T-Law isn't a bust, imo. He just isn't quite the generational talent he was made to be. Part of that is the Jags being the Jags though. They still have a bottom 5 OL in year 4 for T-Law. They have simply been absolutely dreadful at drafting and collecting talent for T-Law.

If every year the OL cant pass block and the only consistent thing is the QB....guess what, its the QB not helping the OL.

 

[gilesfan]

GMs overthink things. You cannot draft non premium positions in the top 5 or 10.

QB
WR
OT
Pass Rusher
Corner

Every year random RBs and TEs or linebackers rise up the boards thinking this year is different. 90 out of 100 times, I would draft a guy at the premium position. Its too easy to find others to fill non premium positions.

 

[zitothebrave]

GMs overthink things. You cannot draft non premium positions in the top 5 or 10.

QB
WR
OT
Pass Rusher
Corner

Every year random RBs and TEs or linebackers rise up the boards thinking this year is different. 90 out of 100 times, I would draft a guy at the premium position. Its too easy to find others to fill non premium positions.

I would argue that RB is a flex when it's a legit talent.

I mostly agree, I think the trap that happens is sometimes scouts rate players way higher than they would be. Pitts is an amazing example of this. Look at NFL.com's scouting reports. Pitts was the second highest rated prospect in the draft behind Lawrence. THat stuff gets in people's heads, when really you should push that way down. What's dumb is the best TE of all time (Tony G) had 56 yards per game, the most impactful TE of all Time (Gronk) 64.9. Neither top the top 50. Without digging too deep 3 WR in that draft topped that so far, Chase, Waddle, and St. Brown. You just use WR so much more. Gronk was a mismatch, but he needed Tom Brady

 

[Carp]

If every year the OL cant pass block and the only consistent thing is the QB....guess what, its the QB not helping the OL.

The Jags have consistently had a terrible OL even before T-Law showed up. They don't invest in it and they don't develop guys.

 

[gilesfan]

The Jags have consistently had a terrible OL even before T-Law showed up. They don't invest in it and they don't develop guys.

They have the 6th highest money in the NFL tied up to the OL.

2019- 2nd round tackle

2020- 4th round guard (obv not a high pick but if you draft a guard in the 4th, they should be eventual starter or key backup)

2021- 2nd round tackle

2022- 3rd round guard

2023- 1st round OL

LT- Cam Robinson- in his prime (former 2nd rounder that signed 3/54 contract.

RG- Brandon Scherff one of the best guards in the NFL, signed one of the richest guard contacts in NFL history

They do spend on the OL. Its not a coincidence that they just cant get over the top and the primary reason is the QB.

 

[gilesfan]

I would argue that RB is a flex when it's a legit talent.

I mostly agree, I think the trap that happens is sometimes scouts rate players way higher than they would be. Pitts is an amazing example of this. Look at NFL.com's scouting reports. Pitts was the second highest rated prospect in the draft behind Lawrence. THat stuff gets in people's heads, when really you should push that way down. What's dumb is the best TE of all time (Tony G) had 56 yards per game, the most impactful TE of all Time (Gronk) 64.9. Neither top the top 50. Without digging too deep 3 WR in that draft topped that so far, Chase, Waddle, and St. Brown. You just use WR so much more. Gronk was a mismatch, but he needed Tom Brady

I cant see it. And the larger problem is you only get good production until about age 27/28 for the large majority of RBs. You can find a decent RB in round 3 every draft and recycle them every 2-3 years.

 

[Carp]

They have the 6th highest money in the NFL tied up to the OL.

2019- 2nd round tackle

2020- 4th round guard (obv not a high pick but if you draft a guard in the 4th, they should be eventual starter or key backup)

2021- 2nd round tackle

2022- 3rd round guard

2023- 1st round OL

LT- Cam Robinson- in his prime (former 2nd rounder that signed 3/54 contract.

RG- Brandon Scherff one of the best guards in the NFL, signed one of the richest guard contacts in NFL history

They do spend on the OL. Its not a coincidence that they just cant get over the top and the primary reason is the QB.

They are literally rated as the 30th ranked unit right now, with both starting tackles registering in the bottom 10 in the league in pressures allowed. That isn't a QB issue.

 

[gilesfan]

They are literally rated as the 30th ranked unit right now, with both starting tackles registering in the bottom 10 in the league in pressures allowed. That isn't a QB issue.

Thats exactly my point. Why are their tackles allowing pressures?

Some of it might be them for sure, but QBs impact how their OL grades. When a QB consistently has bad lines....guess what, thats on him. Its why the sack rate for QB is consistent through OL changes but the sack rate for OLs vary based on who the QB is.

 

[thethe]

Offensive line is a game of leverage mostly. They can't see the QB but the DL can so they have to trust the QB is staying in the designed pocket position but if the play breaks down a bit the QB is forcing the DL to get to a spot where the OL can recover and re-engage.

Offensive line play is 25-50% the QB for sure.

Of coures there are complete blowups within 2 seconds that aren't the QB's fault where a center might call out the wrong protection on stunts.

 

[Carp]

Thats exactly my point. Why are their tackles allowing pressures?

Some of it might be them for sure, but QBs impact how their OL grades. When a QB consistently has bad lines....guess what, thats on him. Its why the sack rate for QB is consistent through OL changes but the sack rate for OLs vary based on who the QB is.

Because they aren't playing well. Have you watched a Jags game?

 

[zitothebrave]

Because they aren't playing well. Have you watched a Jags game?

Lawrence is tied for 3rd in pocket time. If his line is **** he's not helping himself.

Cousins is tied for 15th and part of that is the rough line sitaution the falcon's have had. A tenth of a second may not sound like much but it matters in the NFL.

 

[zitothebrave]

I cant see it. And the larger problem is you only get good production until about age 27/28 for the large majority of RBs. You can find a decent RB in round 3 every draft and recycle them every 2-3 years.

I think it's better to take a RB In round 1. You get them for cheap for 5 years and if they're legit like Henry or Saquon then pay them.

 

[gilesfan]

Because they aren't playing well. Have you watched a Jags game?

Here are some fun numbers:

Trevor Law pressure to sack rate in college 15.8%

Trevor Law pressure to sack rate in NFL 15.8% (going into this year).

A good QB calls the correct protection, evaluates the correct way to attack the defense, and gets rid of the ball. That is not something that Lawrence has done well, going all the way back to College. Maybe his OL is not great (who knows until they get a better QB), but he certainly does not help the OL.

Its funny the Commanders had a historically bad OL last year. The fans all offseason complained about the lack of moves (signed a good center and a backup guard, lost their best LT) and they change QB and all of a sudden people are hyping the OL.....why? Because the QB.

 

[gilesfan]

I think it's better to take a RB In round 1. You get them for cheap for 5 years and if they're legit like Henry or Saquon then pay them.

I think thats among the worst way to build a team that I can think of. A RBs shelf life is typically less than 5 years, why in the world would you sign them? For example, Saquon wanted a big deal, the Eagles signed him to a 3 year deal, he's almost certainly not going to be worth in it year 3 and maybe not in year 2. I wouldn't put it past him to drastically slow down as this season goes along. Hes at an age where RB production falls off the charts so slight chance he produces well throughout the year and a slim chance he's productive in the the future.

I wouldn't have signed Henry either but hes producing at the moment. Its possible he has some Adrian Peterson type career arc but those are few and far between.

The number of poor first round RB choices is much longer.