Looking towards 2025

zitothebrave said:
I wouldn't call it suspect. He's been OK. He had 1 terrible season. 2022. Aside fromt hat he's been high or low.

If Toronto sold low on him I wouldn't hate it.
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Saw an interesting Twitter thread a couple days ago with a few Jays fans talking about how the eye test does not line up with the defensive stats and that he’s a really bad defensive SS. I believe that the eye test trumps the stats sometime with defense.
 
zbhargrove said:
Saw an interesting Twitter thread a couple days ago with a few Jays fans talking about how the eye test does not line up with the defensive stats and that he’s a really bad defensive SS. I believe that the eye test trumps the stats sometime with defense.
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The thing with the eye test, especially from fans of a team that watch a lot of the games, is that they have no frame of reference. It's human nature to remember a lot of the bad plays a guy has too for whatever reason.
 
zitothebrave said:
I wouldn't call it suspect. He's been OK. He had 1 terrible season. 2022. Aside fromt hat he's been high or low.

If Toronto sold low on him I wouldn't hate it.
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His highs haven't been especially high. He has been a solid but unspectacular defender the last 2 years. Sort of He was downright atrocious in 2022. But honestly, Arcia hasn't been a world beater either, so if Bichette can match his defense from the last 2 years, we shouldn't see any difference on defense.

But certainly I would take Bichette as a reclamation project.
 
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thewupk said:
The thing with the eye test, especially from fans of a team that watch a lot of the games, is that they have no frame of reference. It's human nature to remember a lot of the bad plays a guy has too for whatever reason.
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I get it... I've just never really found any defensive statistic to be very good or representative... except for obvious cases like "Soler is an awful defender"

The stats and the eye test agree there.
 
As a fan outside the Jays echo-chamber who knows very little about Bichette, here's what I see based on surface stats:

A mediocre SS defender who posted 13.6 WAR over his age 23-25 seasons, during which he had a very consistent .347-.354 wOBA vs a very consistent .334-.363 xwOBA. His BABIP was also very consistent at .339-.355, which suggests his .269 rate in 2024 is the clear outlier.

He played in 81 games, and I see lots of references to a calf injury, and a pin inserted into his finger at the end of Sept. This suggests to me it was an injury plagued year for a 26 year old player who should be a good bet to bounce back to a 4 win season prior to hitting FA.

And of course he's from FL and almost certainly owned a Braves jacket as a kid.

If I'm AA this is exactly the guy I'm targeting for SS if the Jays sell. He has a very good chance of putting up a monster 5+ win season in his walk year before signing a $200M+ contract in 2026. And if he flops they have another low end SS on the bench as insurance.
 
I have a little insider information about a game next season, not necessarily relevant to this thread but I didnt want to start another. Looks like the Braves are going to play the Reds at Bristol Motor Speedway on the infield next season. That should be pretty cool. I like the random games each year that they are doing lately.
 
Enscheff said:
As a fan outside the Jays echo-chamber who knows very little about Bichette, here's what I see based on surface stats:

A mediocre SS defender who posted 13.6 WAR over his age 23-25 seasons, during which he had a very consistent .347-.354 wOBA vs a very consistent .334-.363 xwOBA. His BABIP was also very consistent at .339-.355, which suggests his .269 rate in 2024 is the clear outlier.

He played in 81 games, and I see lots of references to a calf injury, and a pin inserted into his finger at the end of Sept. This suggests to me it was an injury plagued year for a 26 year old player who should be a good bet to bounce back to a 4 win season prior to hitting FA.

And of course he's from FL and almost certainly owned a Braves jacket as a kid.

If I'm AA this is exactly the guy I'm targeting for SS if the Jays sell. He has a very good chance of putting up a monster 5+ win season in his walk year before signing a $200M+ contract in 2026. And if he flops they have another low end SS on the bench as insurance.
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Based on the indications that the Jays front office has been sending out, they will be hesitant to trade him. They want to give it one last go round with him and Guerrero Jr before they both hit free agency. It's also why they never really considered trading either of them at the last trade deadline. Seems like an ill advised strategy, as I don't see how the Jays are serious competitors next year.

Now is it possible that decision could change at next year's trade deadline if they are out of it? I'm sure. Almost wonder if it makes most sense to go into the season with Arcia as the starter and upgrade at the trade deadline as needed. Especially if there are no obvious answers in the off season.
 
The Jays would be idiots not to sell this offseason. The Yanks and Orioles are both primed to own that division the next several years.
 
NYCBrave said:
Based on the indications that the Jays front office has been sending out, they will be hesitant to trade him. They want to give it one last go round with him and Guerrero Jr before they both hit free agency. It's also why they never really considered trading either of them at the last trade deadline. Seems like an ill advised strategy, as I don't see how the Jays are serious competitors next year.

Now is it possible that decision could change at next year's trade deadline if they are out of it? I'm sure. Almost wonder if it makes most sense to go into the season with Arcia as the starter and upgrade at the trade deadline as needed. Especially if there are no obvious answers in the off season.
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Of course they don't say that they intend to trade them. That's negotiating 101: Act from a position of strength, even if it's just perceived.
 
NYCBrave said:
Based on the indications that the Jays front office has been sending out, they will be hesitant to trade him. They want to give it one last go round with him and Guerrero Jr before they both hit free agency. It's also why they never really considered trading either of them at the last trade deadline. Seems like an ill advised strategy, as I don't see how the Jays are serious competitors next year.

Now is it possible that decision could change at next year's trade deadline if they are out of it? I'm sure. Almost wonder if it makes most sense to go into the season with Arcia as the starter and upgrade at the trade deadline as needed. Especially if there are no obvious answers in the off season.
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I also gather the Jays are not going to rebuild this offseason. We all know it's the wrong choice for them, but we also know teams almost never rebuild when there's still a semblance of "The Core" remaining. What the Braves did with their rebuild is pretty rare.

Of course it only takes one offer to change that though. If some team comes to the Jays with an offer they can't pass up it ay trigger the rebuild they need to start ASAP.
 
The Braves were also perennial winners who hadn't rebuilt since the 80s. The Jays know where they stand, it's about selling tickets not winning. They are even floated as a possible landing spot for Soto
 
The Jordan Montgomery/Geraldo Perdomo trade makes the most sense. What would the Dbacks want in return? What would we give?
 
1. Why would Arizona be trading a solid SS who is only 25?

2. Is Perdomo even enough of an upgrade over Arcia to warrant taking on Montgomery’s contract?
 
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