Offseason Hot Stove 2024-25 Thread

[Carp]

Even if we got ZERO production from Acuna and Strider (unlikely), simply having a full season of Riley, Ozzie, and Harris is enough to make us a 90 win team again. Does Matt really forget that Riley and Harris are both 5+ WAR caliber players? And that, even last years version of Ozzie (pre-injury) is a 2-3 WAR 2b?

And this is before we make any substantial upgrades, which we know will indeed happen. We will sign/trade for at least 1 starter. We will sign/trade for at least 1 OFer. We will sign/trade for at least 1 reliever.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Olson was literally the same hitter in the 2nd half of the year that he was for most of 2023. He's a streaky guy. But as long as he can avoid doing what he did in July, he should finish around his career numbers, if not better. Murphy is the only guy I am remotely worried about. But even he had a career worst .223 BABIP. That simply isn't likely to repeat itself.

so your argument for Olson is if he didn't suck for 'x' days he would have been good? are the Braves hoping that the FF replacement is a 3 win player going into his age 30+ season or a 5+ win beast that at least gets closer to what the team had in '21.. So far he has been closer to the 3 win guy as a Brave. That doesn't bode well for an guy on the back slope of his prime with a long loopy swing

 

[thewupk]

Does ZiPS account for guys like Acuna and strider coming off major injury?

They have strider at 2.6 fWAR in 126 IP. Acuna wiht 5.1 fWAR in 550 PAs.

 

[thewupk]

I agree.. I don't think the team is bad perse.. I just don't know if 2025 is going to be the year. I worry about strider with the fact he went with the patch versus the repair.. supposed to be a shorter recovery time and we now learned that he won't be ready for opening day. I hope that doesn't come back to bite him. But even if healthy, pitchers typically take almost 2 full years to get back fully. He is scheduled to be ready around late May.. so maybe hit the Bigs in June.. I could see 1-2 war from him next year.

Acuna also not back until May or June.. I doubt he is the same force we have come to love until 2026.

There is a lot of patch work holes to fill for 2025 (JJ included) and I am not sure AA has the capital to do it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if by the all star break this team is hovering around .500 and in 3rd place.

If you want to have a doomer take then that's your perogative. But nobody that looks at these teams from a professional point of view thinks this.

For whatever it's worth. With the Soto sweepstakes over. The Braves have jumped to 2nd in betting odds to win the WS. Mets are 3rd and Phillies are 6th.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Even if we got ZERO production from Acuna and Strider (unlikely), simply having a full season of Riley, Ozzie, and Harris is enough to make us a 90 win team again. Does Matt really forget that Riley and Harris are both 5+ WAR caliber players? And that, even last years version of Ozzie (pre-injury) is a 2-3 WAR 2b?

And this is before we make any substantial upgrades, which we know will indeed happen. We will sign/trade for at least 1 starter. We will sign/trade for at least 1 OFer. We will sign/trade for at least 1 reliever.

We don't know what upgrades he will make yet.. so until then, I can only go by what is on the roster. And no, I don't think a healthy Riley, Harris and I guess Ozzie is enough to cover Arcia, Kelenic, Murph and what ever the team trots out there in RF for 2-3 months.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

They have strider at 2.6 fWAR in 126 IP. Acuna wiht 5.1 fWAR in 550 PAs.

I wouldn't bet the Strider odds.. He could get that if he comes back in time.

Acuna looks like easy money to me. I don't see him getting that many plate appearances nor anywhere close to 5 wins. He started the year in 22 and only had 533 PA with a 3ish war.

 

[thewupk]

I wouldn't bet the Strider odds.. He could get that if he comes back in time.

Acuna looks like easy money to me. I don't see him getting that many plate appearances nor anywhere close to 5 wins. He started the year in 22 and only had 533 PA with a 3ish war.

At face value I would agree that Strider seems low and Acuna seems high.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

At face value I would agree that Strider seems low and Acuna seems high.

as the roster is constructed, it will be interesting next year with Acuna. He can't play the field for 150+ games (or what games are left when he actually returns).. So it will be interesting what they do with Ozuna and the DH to allow Acuna to get more PAs. He will also just need some days off completely imo. 20-25 games where he would only pinch hit at most.

 

[Carp]

so your argument for Olson is if he didn't suck for 'x' days he would have been good? are the Braves hoping that the FF replacement is a 3 win player going into his age 30+ season or a 5+ win beast that at least gets closer to what the team had in '21.. So far he has been closer to the 3 win guy as a Brave. That doesn't bode well for an guy on the back slope of his prime with a long loopy swing

Olson was indeed good last year. He wasn't great by any means and not worth what he was paid to be, but he was still good even in a "down" season. And you missed the point, which was that he fixed whatever the issues he was having in the first half, and was virtually the same hitter he was in 2023 over the final 60-70 games.

 

[Carp]

We don't know what upgrades he will make yet.. so until then, I can only go by what is on the roster. And no, I don't think a healthy Riley, Harris and I guess Ozzie is enough to cover Arcia, Kelenic, Murph and what ever the team trots out there in RF for 2-3 months.

We ran out those same players last year WITHOUT Harris and Ozzie for half the season and missing Riley for 50 games, and we still won 89 games. But somehow full seasons from Riley, Harris, and Ozzie won't change anything and Arcia, Kelenic, and Murphy's are bound to repeat career worst seasons, despite each player still being in their 20's.... That's the logic you're rocking with?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

We ran out those same players last year WITHOUT Harris and Ozzie for half the season and missing Riley for 50 games, and we still won 89 games. But somehow full seasons from Riley, Harris, and Ozzie won't change anything and Arcia, Kelenic, and Murphy's are bound to repeat career worst seasons, despite each player still being in their 20's.... That's the logic you're rocking with?

no, but I am taking into consideration that Fried and JJ are gone.. Sschwelly is going into his sophomore year where the league will have a better book on him (and I am a HUGE fan of his) and that Sale and Lopez won't have career years which carried this team for most of the year.

 

[Carp]

no, but I am taking into consideration that Fried and JJ are gone.. Sschwelly is going into his sophomore year where the league will have a better book on him (and I am a HUGE fan of his) and that Sale and Lopez won't have career years which carried this team for most of the year.

So every player that had great seasons are gonna regress and every player that had bad seasons are gonna stay bad or get worse? Is that about right?

Max is certainly a big loss in general, buy you seem to be focusing more on the name rather than his actual production from last year. He only provided 3.5 bWAR 2024. While that is certainly valuable, that isn't quite like losing prime Max Scherzer or something. There is a lot of quality pitching available that should be able to provide around 2.5 WAR or better in 2024.

 

[Enscheff]

They have strider at 2.6 fWAR in 126 IP. Acuna wiht 5.1 fWAR in 550 PAs.

Give me the massive under on the Acuna projections. Projecting him to have the 2nd best season of his career after his 2nd knee reconstruction is pure stupidity.

His 2025 is more likely to resemble his 2022 than those projections. In fact, there's a non-zero chance he's done as an impact player altogether. At the very least he's probably done as an OFer.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

So every player that had great seasons are gonna regress and every player that had bad seasons are gonna stay bad or get worse? Is that about right?

Max is certainly a big loss in general, you seem to be focusing more on the name rather than his actual production from last year. He only provided 3.5 bWAR 2024. While that is certainly valuable, that isn't quite like losing prime Max Scherzer or something. There is a lot of quality pitching available that should be able to provide around 2.5 WAR or better in 2024.

every player?? I am specifically talking about 36 year old Sale and oft injured Lopez. Do I see a case where Sale and Lopez repeat.. yes I do. Sale is just special. He has been his whole career (just hurt a lot) So I think he ages fine.. Lopez is just now 30 and breaking 100 innings (by a good bit) was a huge threshold to get past.

If those 2 and Schwelly can stay close to what they were last year, then I think the Braves can be the best team in the East. But those are some big if's to repeat.. so I personally consider the East a toss up between the still strong Faillies and the now improved Mutts.

 

[UNCBlue012]

Holy hell... that's their top two prospects:
The Padres rejected an offer for Garrett Crochet, which would send C Ethan Salas and SS Leodalis De Vries to the White Sox, per @BNightengale

 

[msstate7]

Holy hell... that's their top two prospects:

The Padres rejected an offer for Garrett Crochet, which would send C Ethan Salas and SS Leodalis De Vries to the White Sox, per @BNightengale

Probably forget crochet. Just sign Charlie and Jordan luplow

 

[thewupk]

Give me the massive under on the Acuna projections. Projecting him to have the 2nd best season of his career after his 2nd knee reconstruction is pure stupidity.

His 2025 is more likely to resemble his 2022 than those projections. In fact, there's a non-zero chance he's done as an impact player altogether. At the very least he's probably done as an OFer.

They project him with a 148 WRC+ which isn't the 2nd best season of his career. They just believe in his bat. Zips has always been super high on Acuna though.

 

[thewupk]

Olson was indeed good last year. He wasn't great by any means and not worth what he was paid to be, but he was still good even in a "down" season. And you missed the point, which was that he fixed whatever the issues he was having in the first half, and was virtually the same hitter he was in 2023 over the final 60-70 games.

Might be time to rethink that with the contracts being handed out right now.

Alsono is going to be a good barometer on that. He's a similar but lessor player and only a year younger than Olson right now.

 

[thewupk]

Holy hell... that's their top two prospects:
The Padres rejected an offer for Garrett Crochet, which would send C Ethan Salas and SS Leodalis De Vries to the White Sox, per @BNightengale

That's a 60 and 50 fV for those two. I know Crochet is the big name right now but he only has 2 years left and just the 1 season as a starter under his belt. Not sure how much they will realistically get back.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

That's a 60 and 50 fV for those two. I know Crochet is the big name right now but he only has 2 years left and just the 1 season as a starter under his belt. Not sure how much they will realistically get back.

seemed like a big ask, but can you blame them for trying to capitalize on the best trade target right now. I sure they are setting the bar really high ahead of the winter meetings.. But I suspect they will settle on a pretty good return this week while there are a bunch of teams still on the hunt for TOR pitching. What would be dumb is letting a lot of those FA sign and reducing the teams competing for him.. But the Soxs are not the brightest org in the world.