Bravos sign Profar.

Dunit24 said:
Nah man, a C grade from Enscheff ain’t bad at all. I think he expected it to be less $$$ since it’s so late in the offseason as to why it’s a C, but I’ll take it from the Chef!
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Exactly.

A B would have been getting him for 2 years plus an option.

An A would have been getting him for 1 year plus an option.

Why wait until Jan 23rd to sign him for exactly what everyone projected him to get? What about that move warrants anything other than an average grade?
 
Enscheff said:
Exactly.

A B would have been getting him for 2 years plus an option.

An A would have been getting him for 1 year plus an option.

Why wait until Jan 23rd to sign him for exactly what everyone projected him to get? What about that move warrants anything other than an average grade?
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I mostly agree with you here, but two counterpoints would be that most pre-offseason FA predictions have been too low, while Profar’s was close to spot-on, and AA actually saved a few million off the consensus 3/$45m.

Nevertheless, the only way this becomes “a steal” is if Profar posts another couple 3.5-4.0 fwar seasons in ‘25 and ‘26, then manages to stave off a collapse and crests down to 2-3 fwar in his third year. That would represent a best-case steal.
 
“Why wait until January to sign him to his projected deal” guessing because he was asking for more, like most FAs have this offseason?
 
jpx7 said:
I mostly agree with you here, but two counterpoints would be that most pre-offseason FA predictions have been too low, while Profar’s was close to spot-on, and AA actually saved a few million off the consensus 3/$45m.

Nevertheless, the only way this becomes “a steal” is if Profar posts another couple 3.5-4.0 fwar seasons in ‘25 and ‘26, then manages to stave off a collapse and crests down to 2-3 fwar in his third year. That would represent a best-case steal.
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That upside was baked into his $45M projection.

Let’s not forget the downside, which is a guy who was so bad SD was able to sign him for $1M in 2024.

Folks tend to grossly overestimate a player’s downside. Much like I said Kelenic’s downside was “unplayable” while most were saying 2 wins was the downside, Profar has the same downside if that EV improvement doesn’t hold.

Profar being a $15M replacement level player in a very real possibility, and he could be such an anchor for 3 seasons. Hopefully that’s not how works out, but that is the risk AA bought.
 
Enscheff said:
Exactly.

A B would have been getting him for 2 years plus an option.

An A would have been getting him for 1 year plus an option.

Why wait until Jan 23rd to sign him for exactly what everyone projected him to get? What about that move warrants anything other than an average grade?
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I agree with your C rating because he's such a wild card. But have to keep in mind, most free agents this off season have blown out their projections and got way more. So the scale has changed a bit. Getting someone at their projected value this off season hasn't been a given.
 
I don't mind someone calling this a C or a B. I personally think this is a B because of what others have said about projections being out of wack so far. I also don't agree that 40 million over 3 years is an anchor if he flops. I mean the Braves spent 25+ million for a far less proven player in Kelenic and it did not sink the team. I also don't see why a end of Jan signing is any different than an end of Dec signing. No one should be panicking at this point (players or teams)..

So I gave it a B because of
Pros
potential upside... came under projection...and switch hitter

Cons
short track record of success.. OF D is not great
 
Good move. Get some BP depth, and a SP, and we're good until the trade deadline. The fact that Kim is still out there makes me wonder though he is out for at least half of next year.
 
I think this is a guy a number of folks had on wish lists and it is a reasonable price.

I guess if they keep up the C signings they could have an A offseason.

But alone it doesn't do a whole lot aside from address the fact that they had to have a MLB OF.
 
From Grant McCauley on X: #Braves Alex Anthopoulos said they believe in the swing changes Jurickson Profar made in a career-best 2024. They see that production as sustainable and what he did last year is who he'll be moving forward.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think this is a guy a number of folks had on wish lists and it is a reasonable price.

I guess if they keep up the C signings they could have an A offseason.

But alone it doesn't do a whole lot aside from address the fact that they had to have a MLB OF.
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I agree but of the three needs, OF was the biggest. They have options at SP, and have signed a bunch of RP. But still need to add someone who isnt on a minor league deal there before you can say it helps.
 
I don't know if us waiting until now was AAs choice or not. Boras is notorious for having his clients try to wait out the market. It wouldn't shock me if he had an offer from the Braves in early December.
 
striker42 said:
I don't know if us waiting until now was AAs choice or not. Boras is notorious for having his clients try to wait out the market. It wouldn't shock me if he had an offer from the Braves in early December.
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He left Boras a year or so ago.
 
Heyward said:
From Grant McCauley on X: #Braves Alex Anthopoulos said they believe in the swing changes Jurickson Profar made in a career-best 2024. They see that production as sustainable and what he did last year is who he'll be moving forward.
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This will be very interesting to watch. He significantly increased his EV to 91.1 last year, and he was very consistent all year with it. His lowest month was 89.9 in April, and his highest month was 92.9 in July.

Profar's early results won't really mean much, but after about 50-75 PAs we should have a good idea if the increased EV stuck around. If his early EV is 90+ we can be pretty confident the new Profar is the real Profar.
 
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