Offseason Hot Stove 2024-25 Thread

Baldwin #11 on the Fangraphs top 100.

Baldwin is a stocky, physical catcher with impressive opposite field power and feel to hit. He projects as an above-average regular.

Baldwin signed for just south of $650,000 as the Braves’ third rounder in 2022. He slashed .318/.426/.549 throughout his college career in Springfield, had as many walks as strikeouts, and posted a 51% hard-hit rate (Missouri State plays in the same stadium as the Cardinals’ Double-A team, so it’s fitted with all the tech) in a pretty sizable sample as a junior. As a pro, Baldwin has coasted through the minors, posting a comfortably above-average wRC+ at every level, except for the very start of 2024 at Double-A, where he had some tough BABIP luck.

Baldwin’s ability to move his hands around the zone and spray well-struck contact to all fields is commensurate with an impact primary catcher. He’s thick and physical, rotates with ferocity, and yet his short levers keep his swing from getting too long. He again posted a hard-hit rate up around 50% in 2024, though Baldwin almost exclusively inside-outs fastballs the other way and big league pitchers might be able to limit his game power by attacking him with velocity on the outer third. Though a bunch of his TrackMan data is very similar to Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, Baldwin’s power is not as well-actualized, and stylistically, he looks more like an all-fields doubles hitter. He does a little bit of everything at a position where one thing is often enough.

Baldwin has made impressive developmental progress on defense. The Braves drastically altered some stylistic elements of his receiving, most notably paring down Baldwin’s footwork and putting him more regularly on one knee, and it has taken him some time to get comfortable with that. His receiving and ball blocking are only fair, while the quickness and consistency of his exchange on throws to second base has become excellent. What he lacks in height relative to most catchers, he makes up for in bodily density. He’s of sturdy build and caught close to 100 games in 2024 when you take his AFL and Premier12 postseason activity into account. Though he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, Baldwin is in position for a 2025 debut, and given Sean Murphy‘s injury track record, it’s possible he’ll get some extended run.
 
Smith-Shawver is our only other prospect in their top 100, he's #40.

Smith-Shawver has big long-term ceiling. He hasn’t focused on baseball for very long and still reached Atlanta at age 20-21 amid injuries and changes to his repertoire. Once his mechanics click, look out.

A two-sport Texas Tech commit coming out of high school, Smith-Shawver raced to the big leagues in his second full season even as his repertoire and delivery were evolving. His strike-throwing stagnated during a homer-prone 2024 at Triple-A, but the barely-22-year-old Smith-Shawver (who also dealt with a grade two oblique strain last year) still checks basically every athletic box you’re looking for in an impact pitcher and he hasn’t focused solely on baseball for very long. Since he was drafted, the Braves have augmented AJ’s release point and, in 2022, altered the shape of his slider. In 2023, he added a mid-70s rainbow curveball that complements the shape of his riding mid-90s fastball. In 2024, he suddenly had a plus-flashing changeup. For Smith-Shawver to have entered pro ball as a fastball/slider projection guy and, amidst all these changes, reached the big leagues before he was legally allowed to drink is remarkable.

A super loose 6-foot-3, Smith-Shawver’s mechanical consistency should improve with reps. His fastball’s velocity and ride give it margin for error in the strike zone, but his secondary pitches (especially his slider) need to be located more consistently if they’re going to thrive. The developmental imperative for AJ and the Braves is to find more consistent slider release, so that that pitch is located off the plate rather than constantly backing up into the wheelhouse of righty batters.

I’m consciously avoiding prospect fatigue here — were Smith-Shawver a college righty sitting 95 mph with his changeup quality, we’d be talking about him as a lock to be a top 10 pick. The Braves’ aggressive promotion schedule has backed them into a bit of a corner here, as Smith-Shawver has just one option year left, which might impact his role in the short-term. Over time, I think he’ll be a good mid-rotation starter with two plus pitches and, eventually, much better command than he has right now.
 
I'm surprised Caminiti wasn't on there but I'm guessing he will be after this year. Good stuff on both of those guys and I think they'll both be big contributors this year to the big club.
 
I would like to see AA give AJSS the Fried treatment. Bring him along in the pen as a long reliever, with the intent to work multiple innings every appearance. Give him some spot starts here and there. Let him refine his repertoire while providing actual value to the team.
 
Baldwin #11 on the Fangraphs top 100.

Baldwin is a stocky, physical catcher with impressive opposite field power and feel to hit. He projects as an above-average regular.

Baldwin signed for just south of $650,000 as the Braves’ third rounder in 2022. He slashed .318/.426/.549 throughout his college career in Springfield, had as many walks as strikeouts, and posted a 51% hard-hit rate (Missouri State plays in the same stadium as the Cardinals’ Double-A team, so it’s fitted with all the tech) in a pretty sizable sample as a junior. As a pro, Baldwin has coasted through the minors, posting a comfortably above-average wRC+ at every level, except for the very start of 2024 at Double-A, where he had some tough BABIP luck.

Baldwin’s ability to move his hands around the zone and spray well-struck contact to all fields is commensurate with an impact primary catcher. He’s thick and physical, rotates with ferocity, and yet his short levers keep his swing from getting too long. He again posted a hard-hit rate up around 50% in 2024, though Baldwin almost exclusively inside-outs fastballs the other way and big league pitchers might be able to limit his game power by attacking him with velocity on the outer third. Though a bunch of his TrackMan data is very similar to Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, Baldwin’s power is not as well-actualized, and stylistically, he looks more like an all-fields doubles hitter. He does a little bit of everything at a position where one thing is often enough.

Baldwin has made impressive developmental progress on defense. The Braves drastically altered some stylistic elements of his receiving, most notably paring down Baldwin’s footwork and putting him more regularly on one knee, and it has taken him some time to get comfortable with that. His receiving and ball blocking are only fair, while the quickness and consistency of his exchange on throws to second base has become excellent. What he lacks in height relative to most catchers, he makes up for in bodily density. He’s of sturdy build and caught close to 100 games in 2024 when you take his AFL and Premier12 postseason activity into account. Though he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, Baldwin is in position for a 2025 debut, and given Sean Murphy‘s injury track record, it’s possible he’ll get some extended run.

Baldwin is now the highest rated FV55 guy on their board. While Longenhagen takes way too long to output content, in my mind he is unquestionably the best prospect guy in the public sphere. Having said that, I think it's clear now why Baldwin was off limits, and why it was OK to let TDA go. I just wish they could have traded away Murphy and used a Baldwin/TDA platoon for 2025 instead. Unfortunately, the Murphy contract is looking pretty awful right now, so selling low on him would have been a mistake.
 
Smith-Shawver is our only other prospect in their top 100, he's #40.

Smith-Shawver has big long-term ceiling. He hasn’t focused on baseball for very long and still reached Atlanta at age 20-21 amid injuries and changes to his repertoire. Once his mechanics click, look out.

A two-sport Texas Tech commit coming out of high school, Smith-Shawver raced to the big leagues in his second full season even as his repertoire and delivery were evolving. His strike-throwing stagnated during a homer-prone 2024 at Triple-A, but the barely-22-year-old Smith-Shawver (who also dealt with a grade two oblique strain last year) still checks basically every athletic box you’re looking for in an impact pitcher and he hasn’t focused solely on baseball for very long. Since he was drafted, the Braves have augmented AJ’s release point and, in 2022, altered the shape of his slider. In 2023, he added a mid-70s rainbow curveball that complements the shape of his riding mid-90s fastball. In 2024, he suddenly had a plus-flashing changeup. For Smith-Shawver to have entered pro ball as a fastball/slider projection guy and, amidst all these changes, reached the big leagues before he was legally allowed to drink is remarkable.

A super loose 6-foot-3, Smith-Shawver’s mechanical consistency should improve with reps. His fastball’s velocity and ride give it margin for error in the strike zone, but his secondary pitches (especially his slider) need to be located more consistently if they’re going to thrive. The developmental imperative for AJ and the Braves is to find more consistent slider release, so that that pitch is located off the plate rather than constantly backing up into the wheelhouse of righty batters.

I’m consciously avoiding prospect fatigue here — were Smith-Shawver a college righty sitting 95 mph with his changeup quality, we’d be talking about him as a lock to be a top 10 pick. The Braves’ aggressive promotion schedule has backed them into a bit of a corner here, as Smith-Shawver has just one option year left, which might impact his role in the short-term. Over time, I think he’ll be a good mid-rotation starter with two plus pitches and, eventually, much better command than he has right now.

At least someone else gets it.
 
I would like to see AA give AJSS the Fried treatment. Bring him along in the pen as a long reliever, with the intent to work multiple innings every appearance. Give him some spot starts here and there. Let him refine his repertoire while providing actual value to the team.

I completely agree with this. Let him ease his way in without to much pressure and build some confidence.
 
Baldwin is now the highest rated FV55 guy on their board. While Longenhagen takes way too long to output content, in my mind he is unquestionably the best prospect guy in the public sphere. Having said that, I think it's clear now why Baldwin was off limits, and why it was OK to let TDA go. I just wish they could have traded away Murphy and used a Baldwin/TDA platoon for 2025 instead. Unfortunately, the Murphy contract is looking pretty awful right now, so selling low on him would have been a mistake.

I know we wanted Cease and Crochet but it would have been a big mistake trading this guy. Guys like this keep the window extended.
 
I'm surprised Caminiti wasn't on there but I'm guessing he will be after this year. Good stuff on both of those guys and I think they'll both be big contributors this year to the big club.

I think this is your answer as to why CC isn’t on it:

Ken: How did doing the audit of the 2018 list impact your thinking about any prospects for this year’s list?
1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher proximity
 
Why can't we call up our old friend Kimbrell for a ST invite? I mean is he holding out for a closer role somewhere? 2024 was rough, but he's still generating swing and misses with the best of them.
 
Why can't we call up our old friend Kimbrell for a ST invite? I mean is he holding out for a closer role somewhere? 2024 was rough, but he's still generating swing and misses with the best of them.

His K/9 is still great. His BB/9 is among the worst in the league
 
cake: Was Hurston Waldrep slip down a half grade because of command concerns/relief risk?
12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and fastball playability.
12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: Still good!

So is he saying his slip was due to fast ball playability... and still good to reliever risk... or yes/fast ball play to both questions, but he is still good?
 
Does anyone know why no one at all seems to have any interest in David Robertson? I don't even see/hear serious rumors. Does literally everyone else know something I don't?
 
Does anyone know why no one at all seems to have any interest in David Robertson? I don't even see/hear serious rumors. Does literally everyone else know something I don't?

I think Robertson and his agent are in a good position to hold out for someone to get desperate. It doesn't take relievers long to ramp up for opening day, so he's got time on his side still. The only two legitimate high-leverage RPs that seem to be available are Robertson and Suarez (via trade).
 
I think Robertson and his agent are in a good position to hold out for someone to get desperate. It doesn't take relievers long to ramp up for opening day, so he's got time on his side still. The only two legitimate high-leverage RPs that seem to be available are Robertson and Suarez (via trade).

Finnegan as well.
 
I went back and looked and Schwellenbach came so much out of nowhere that he didnt even have a zips projection going into the season last year.
 
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