Economics Thread

chop2chip said:
I will be frequently bumping this post the next several months.
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Yes - THe next several months being hte short term period whereby people that can afford luxury type items (such as hobby building their own PC's) will experience price increases. However, the majority of people that are living paycheck to paycheck will see reduction in gas prices as well as a reduction in grocery prices.

I have a feeling that you may have lost touch with the majority of people becuase of your indiivdual success.
 
thethe said:
Yes - THe next several months being hte short term period whereby people that can afford luxury type items (such as hobby building their own PC's) will experience price increases. However, the majority of people that are living paycheck to paycheck will see reduction in gas prices as well as a reduction in grocery prices.

I have a feeling that you may have lost touch with the majority of people becuase of your indiivdual success.
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Is it your position that prices will not go up from these tariffs?
 
chop2chip said:
Is it your position that prices will not go up from these tariffs?
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This has never been my position so unsure why you are even asking.

But goods which are produced here or do not have tariffs will not go up and in many cases will decrease becuase of this administrations position on energy production.
 
thethe said:
This has never been my position so unsure why you are even asking.

But goods which are produced here or do not have tariffs will not go up and in many cases will decrease becuase of this administrations position on energy production.
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Then why are you dismissing this as a concern for people that can afford luxury goods lol.

I think housing, transportation, consumer electronics and appliances and food prices all rise higher before 2026 election. To be specific, I’ll say at least current inflation rate.

Hope I’m wrong.
 
chop2chip said:
Then why are you dismissing this as a concern for people that can afford luxury goods lol.

I think housing, transportation, consumer electronics and appliances and food prices all rise higher before 2026 election. To be specific, I’ll say at least current inflation rate.

Hope I’m wrong.
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I'm not dismissing I'm more saying 'boo hoo' because if you can afford luxury goods you can afford luxury goods with a 5% markup. The OVERWHELMING majority of Americans can't afford these things in the first place and are mostly looking for safe communitiies and cheap gas/grocery prices.

Consumer electronics have a robust market outside of China so the impact of tariffs on that sector won't be as impactful.
 
thethe said:
I'm not dismissing I'm more saying 'boo hoo' because if you can afford luxury goods you can afford luxury goods with a 5% markup. The OVERWHELMING majority of Americans can't afford these things in the first place and are mostly looking for safe communitiies and cheap gas/grocery prices.

Consumer electronics have a robust market outside of China so the impact of tariffs on that sector won't be as impactful.
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Are Chromebooks luxury goods?

Are minivans luxury goods?

What about getting your roof replaced?

Washing machines springs a leak. Is that a luxury goods to get replaced?

Are getting your 5 year old a bigger pair of shoes a luxury goods?

These are all things that will be impacted by tariffs, either directly (Chromebooks that go to schools are sold by Acer who imports them from China) or indirectly (the material used to fix your roof comes from Canadian raw materials) or a combination of both (an imported washing machine will get tariffed or the cost of manufacturing one will be more expensive due to the raw materials imported getting tariffed).
 
chop2chip said:
I don’t know why your side of the aisle can’t seem to wrap your heads around why border control is so popular. Of course in some areas the impact of immigration is more direct, but the vibe is felt everywhere. Strong border policy is going to be bipartisan in the next election (Trump deserves massive credit for that).
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My honest opinion is that we will feel more negative economic impacts from the increased cost of enforcement, the low l-wage labor market cratering and reduced expenditures within the communities than we’ll see benefits from reduced housing demand and expenditures toward the migrants.

I could of course be wrong. I don’t know how better to describe it than a hunch. I don’t have much hard data to back me up that couldn’t be rebutted with data that supports the opposite and am not going to write a dissertation to try to figure out if I’m right. But my economic hunch is that it will not provide enough of a positive change to enough of the overall populace to matter if the economy is in tank.

I personally think the answer is roughly somewhere in the middle, though. I agree that for as much as my bleeding heart would love to welcome as many people as possible, it’s not economically viable. You cannot have open borders and an overpopulation of impoverished people has ripples throughout the system. But I don’t think enough people are asking how much it costs to tightly control the border. I’d like to see more concessions on both sides here. Criminals should be deported and turned away, we should continue to staff border control and look for criminals and all that. And not *everyone* should get to stay. But I think this could be broadly enacted through reforms on labor abuses and increasing scrutiny on identification for benefits (which I applaud DOGE for investigating actually, even if I think it’s not as rampant as they expect) could result in reduced incentive structures for companies to skirt employment laws and employ undocumented immigrants, and migrants to come to America illegally. If you can’t find a job or get benefits, you’re not going to encourage others to come too, but I’d then work on dramatically increasing our legal immigration processes to account for the labor gaps.
 
chop2chip said:
Are Chromebooks luxury goods?

Are minivans luxury goods?

What about getting your roof replaced?

Washing machines springs a leak. Is that a luxury goods to get replaced?

Are getting your 5 year old a bigger pair of shoes a luxury goods?

These are all things that will be impacted by tariffs, either directly (Chromebooks that go to schools are sold by Acer who imports them from China) or indirectly (the material used to fix your roof comes from Canadian raw materials) or a combination of both (an imported washing machine will get tariffed or the cost of manufacturing one will be more expensive due to the raw materials imported getting tariffed).
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As I've said - prices will increase in short term but over time will normalize as the demand shifts to other nations/internally and tariffed nations have to reduce prices or get impacted by a weakened currency.

This is why looking short term is silly. Mid terms are fortunately 18 months away. What is happening on 3/4/2025 will literally ahve zero impact on how people vote then.
 
Speaking of Fx rates - CNY/USD has gotten more favorable to the US since election day.

Once buyers start shifting to other marketes it will be interesting to follow that.
 
thethe said:
As I've said - prices will increase in short term but over time will normalize as the demand shifts to other nations/internally and tariffed nations have to reduce prices or get impacted by a weakened currency.

This is why looking short term is silly. Mid terms are fortunately 18 months away. What is happening on 3/4/2025 will literally ahve zero impact on how people vote then.
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Unless you’re a voter whose minivan breaks down or kid’s Chromebook dies this month. You’ll still give a **** in 18 months if that happens to you when you don’t have any gas money to begin with and now you need to find that extra money. Better hope those voters find one of those newly created American jobs that result from this.
 
sturg33 said:
The pain of tarrifs - like all inflation and taxes, will be felt hardest from middle class and poor people
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Fortunately, Trump plans to reduce taxes for the working class and enhance energy productiont hat should bring down the cost of many essential goods.
 
thethe said:
Did not say he has - Like Zelensky, give it time.
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You only get one tax year before the midterms, so he has exactly as much time as he can enact a tax cut for next February. I shall not be looking that sort of deadline up, and will wait patiently for next year’s tax season. But nothing is currently in the budget that would do this as of today.
 
mqt said:
It *should* be stand-alone, but I’m not sure this country actually does that anymore.
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I believe last Trump term his admin reformed the tax code- which wasn't done via budget bill and was much harder to undo if memory serves.
 
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