Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread

[thethe]

Inflation is down?

Eggs are down because we aren't slaughtering chickens anymore

Gas is down because demand is slowing

Majority of Americans own stocks... around 70%, and certainly grandma maga who lives on her retirement income

Markets will rebound when trump announces he's not doing this stupid **** anymore, or if there is such a large recession that the fed lowers rates and congress jacks up the spending

I can say definitively that my plan of.purchasing a 60-100k SUV this year is on hold. I am not the only one

Again - Remember all these takes when the average Americans annual expenses are significantly reduced because of Trumps actions.

Then remember it again when the economy takes off in 26 and all those asset prices are back where they are.

Finally, remember all of these takes again when Americans start having actually good manufacturing jobs available to them and median income in the country increases.

 

[thethe]

Need to get rid of Massie first

Fighting with Massie is stupid - He wants this to be a fight in the public.

I can't stop Trump from being who he is - I just don't have to agree with everything.

 

[nsacpi]

One of the lesser appreciated aspects of Trumps tariffs is they represent an implicit subsidy of industries we don't have a comparative advantage at (low end manufacturing) by industries where we do have a comparative advantage (technology and services...in many cases industries of the future that we should be nurturing).

His tariffs are bad at many levels but I think the implicit transfers across industries might be the most important overlooked factor in this entire debate.

 

[thethe]

One of the lesser appreciated aspects of Trumps tariffs is they represent an implicit subsidy of industries we don't have a comparative advantage at (low end manufacturing) by industries where we do have a comparative advantage (technology and services...in many cases industries of the future that we should be nurturing).

His tariffs are bad at many levels but I think the implicit transfers across industries might be the most important overlooked factor in this entire debate.

If you think the manufacturing htat will be built here is not scalable based on innovations.

Thats the idea - NEW manufacturing capabilities to scale with the needs of the country.

 

[nsacpi]

If you think the manufacturing htat will be built here is not scalable based on innovations.

Thats the idea - NEW manufacturing capabilities to scale with the needs of the country.

That's sort of my point. You can't scale everything. Even in a country as large as ours. We should be leaning into our strengths not trying to be #1 at toasters. Trying to be #1 at toasters and other similar products will necessarily entail transfers from other parts of the economy. Do we really want to do that?

 

[thethe]

That's sort of my point. You can't scale everything. Even in a country as large as ours. We should be leaning into our strengths not trying to be #1 at toasters. Trying to be #1 at toasters and other similar products will necessarily entail transfers from other parts of the economy. Do we really want to do that?

But a manufacturing plant doesn't specialize in 'Toasters' - Thats the whole point.

 

[nsacpi]

But a manufacturing plant doesn't specialize in 'Toasters' - Thats the whole point.

toasters is a metaphor...we don't want to be scaling up our production capacity in any of these low-end products...Trump is operating on a sort of Luddite mindset

no miracle in job growth is going to occur as a result of tariffs

we'll mostly see a reallocation of productive capacity (including labor) from areas we have a comparative advantage to areas we don't...with all the attendant welfare losses...plus as a bonus slower technological progress and slower productivity growth in the long run

 

[sturg33]

Again - Remember all these takes when the average Americans annual expenses are significantly reduced because of Trumps actions.

Then remember it again when the economy takes off in 26 and all those asset prices are back where they are.

Finally, remember all of these takes again when Americans start having actually good manufacturing jobs available to them and median income in the country increases.

Remember what takes? I'm stating facts

 

[chop2chip]

Again - Remember all these takes when the average Americans annual expenses are significantly reduced because of Trumps actions.

Then remember it again when the economy takes off in 26 and all those asset prices are back where they are.

Finally, remember all of these takes again when Americans start having actually good manufacturing jobs available to them and median income in the country increases.

Hope so. I’ll gladly eat crow. I’d rather flourish and be wrong then be correct and miserable.

 

[thethe]

Hope so. I’ll gladly eat crow. I’d rather flourish and be wrong then be correct and miserable.

I believe you - I'd suggest be prepared to be very happy with results starting in mid 2026.

 

[thethe]

Remember what takes? I'm stating facts

THERE IS NO PLAN!

TRUMPS A BAFOON!!

Bla Bla Bla

 

[thethe]

toasters is a metaphor...we don't want to be scaling up our production capacity in any of these low-end products...Trump is operating on a sort of Luddite mindset

no miracle in job growth is going to occur as a result of tariffs

we'll mostly see a reallocation of productive capacity (including labor) from areas we have a comparative advantage to areas we don't...with all the attendant welfare losses...plus as a bonus slower technological progress and slower productivity growth in the long run

WHat makes a product low end?

 

[nsacpi]

WHat makes a product low end?

Mature technology. Can be made in Bangladesh.

 

[sturg33]

THERE IS NO PLAN!

TRUMPS A BAFOON!!

Bla Bla Bla

Is the plan just issuing chaos? If not, why do the tarrifs and threats and walk backs change daily?

 

[thethe]

Mature technology. Can be made in Bangladesh.

But if its an ancillary product that can be made at an advanced manufacturing plant that has a gap is supply capacity then why not produce 'low-end' items.

 

[nsacpi]

But if its an ancillary product that can be made at an advanced manufacturing plant that has a gap is supply capacity then why not produce 'low-end' items.

Cuz we don't have unlimited capacity to produce more of everything. That's the whole idea of the benefits of specialization. Inevitably, producing more toasters shifts resources from elsewhere. It's a fantasy that we have all this untapped capacity and idle workers.

 

[thethe]

Cuz we don't have unlimited capacity to produce more of everything. That's the whole idea of the benefits of specialization. Inevitably, producing more toasters shifts resources from elsewhere. It's a fantasy that we have all this untapped capacity and idle workers.

In old style factories I agree - Do we know how efficient, adaptive and effective modern day and future day factories will be?

 

[thethe]

Apparently DOE staff was told to vacate by 6PM.

I remember the freak out from a couple weeks ago.

Everyone thinks things meaningful happen immediately.

 

[sturg33]

Apparently DOE staff was told to vacate by 6PM.

I remember the freak out from a couple weeks ago.

Everyone thinks things meaningful happen immediately.

Back to normal ops on Thursday

 

[sturg33]

Fighting with Massie is stupid - He wants this to be a fight in the public.

I can't stop Trump from being who he is - I just don't have to agree with everything.

What is dumb is Trump pushing to continue Biden spending levels, reauthorizing all the DOGE findings, and then picking fights with any republican who doesn't wish to increase spending

When I presented MAGA Mike Johnsons plan last week, you decried that Republicans suck. But trump is the one pushing this p l an now... does he suck? Or is it brilliant?