From Fangraphs Boom or Bust article:
Boom:
Every time I watch Spencer Schwellenbach or look at his profile, I like him a little better. The ZiPS in-season projections weren’t super excited about Schwellenbach last year, as could be seen when people objected to the fairly low Atlanta win probabilities in the playoff game he was projected to start. But when the full-fat ZiPS projection, rather than the slimmer in-season model, took over, his projections improved by a significant margin. ZiPS already projects him at a 3.62 ERA for 2025, and that was before the spring. After a dominant run in the Grapefruit League, Schwellenbach’s ZiPS projection has improved by another two-tenths of a run.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2025-booms-and-busts-pitchers/