AJSS v2.0

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
AJSS looked like he was working with some improved stuff that he struggled a bit to command/execute. The eye test (for me) said the heater was 95-97 with good rise, the split was filthy, and the sweeper was a sharp downer. The slider looked useless. Let's see what the actual data says now that every MLB pitcher of note has logged 2025 pitch data:

FA: 94.9 (110 of 246), 18.7" vertical (37 of 246), 12.2: arm (31 of 246)

The velocity is above average, but he didn't seem to hold the velocity very deep into the game as we saw it drop from 96-97 after the 1st inning. The movement on this thing is very good. If he can locate it up more consistently, and find a way to maintain the velocity a little longer, this is an excellent foundation for any MLB pitcher. If he moves to the BP this pitch at max effort will likely be a 98-100 mph monster.

SL: 87.5 (52 of 159), 9.4" vertical (155 of 159), 1.2" glove (142 of 159)

There's no other way to put this...the slider is bad. It doesn't sink, and it doesn't move glove side. It just sits there and spins, waiting to be destroyed. Maybe he can morph this into a cutter that plays off the 4 seamer, but it is not an MLB quality slider and it should not have taken this long to figure that out.

CU: 77.7 (53 of 70), -12.1" vertical (21 of 70), 8.0" glove (44 of 70)

This is a decent downer curve that statcast is no longer calling a sweeper. It is pretty clearly his 3rd best pitch, and I would recommend focusing on locating this pitch after completely ditching the slider.

FS: 85.0 (24 of 38), 3.2" rise (24 of 38), 18.0" arm (1 of 38)

This is a slow split that doesn't have the sink of Schwelly's, but has massive arm-side run. Regardless of how it's classified, it acts like a plus change fading away from LHH, which is exactly what we saw several times vs Heyward. We saw how effective it can be, and if he learns to spot the FA with this pitch playing off it we can expect to see the combo be deadly.

Overall, AJSS looks very similar to Lopez in terms of the FA/CU/CH pitch mix, but a clear step down from the stuff Schwelly throws out there. We know Lopez can be a solid #3, so there's no reason to expect any less from AJSS. As always, the command/execution of these pitches will determine his ultimate ceiling.
 
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What’s exciting to me is how young he is and that he hasn’t been pitching for very long. Said differently, I believe he might have an unusually high ceiling…..
 
Good stuff as always. Command was always the thing with him. If he can harness that command he can be a big piece of the rotation going forward.
 
Maybe the slider plays well off his split. Since they are thrown at similar velocities, maybe it's tough for hitters to tell which way it's going to break until it's too late. That's the only reason I can think that he hasn't scrapped it. It's legit a really poor pitch, movement wise.
 
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It just seems silly to have a guy who can barely execute 1 pitch try to execute 4 pitches, especially when that 4th pitch is so poor.

To me, the clear course of action is to refine the usage of his 3 good/great pitches, and then try to bring in a cutter/slider once he has things working consistently.
 
yes, that is my thought as well. master the two really good pitches. It almost looked like the split was a change the way it just died and faded off to the right.. but regardless.. improve the FA location.. master that split, so he isn't spiking it so much.. sprinkle in the curve about 15% to keep them honest, and then develop the 4th pitch.
 
CyYoung31 said:
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Wow.
Click to expand...

the broadcast was laughing at that pitch.. when I saw it, I meant to look at savant to see the movement. That pitch was effective to lefties.. but seems like it would be deadly to righties if he stays out of the middle of the zone with it.
 
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