GDT #30: 5/4/14 Giants vs Braves 1:35 PM

[yeezus]

Kind of like (insert Braves player here) can't be as bad as last season. That whole saying is a load of crap. If a player sucks he won't get better simply because he can't repeat a terrible season again. Same holds true for any team.

Right, because we suck.

 

[AerchAngel]

Fire the hitting coach.

It can't hurt. It's not like he is earning his more than 100k salary.

 

[bravesnumberone]

Harang will be huge tomorrow.

Meaning he won't give up more than one homer.

 

[nsacpi]

Some OPS stats so far relative to Steamer projections going into today's game:

Heyward .641 (.806 projected at the start of the season)
BJ .626 (.674)
Freeman .910 (.859)
Justin .992 (.829)
Gattis .855 (.766)
Johnson .592 (.725)
Uggla .549 (.684)
Simmons .742 (.721)

So far we have four underperformers and four overperformers, but the underperformers are underperforming by a larger margin. Now a projection is not a guarantee. But it is based upon a larger sample than five weeks worth of games, so I have some confidence that going forward the performances during the rest of the season will be closer to the projections that what we have seen so far.

Our offensive performance so far has also been hurt by the sequencing of our hits (of which batting with RISP is a good short hand).

So far this season we have an overall batting average of .236 and a batting average with RISP of .214. The RISP numbers are based on a fairly small sample. Over a full season they will tend to converge to the overall average. Last year for example the differential between overall batting average and batting average with RISP was .002.

For the most part we just have to be patient and wait for performances to converge to projection and hitting with RISP to converge to overall hitting.

However, there are some things we can do. One is to look at the players that have both low performance and low projected performance. The name that jumps out is Uggla. We have discussed this exhaustively in other threads. I don't have anything new to add. I will simply repeat that it makes sense to start giving more playing time to alternatives at second. And this would make sense whether or not the team was struggling offensively.

The other suggestion I would make would be to increase Gattis' playing time slightly.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Hard to believe that Freeman was above .900 OPS coming into today. Even after his horrid week.

 

[parkvadawg]

Honestly can't wait for the first Freeman isn't worth the money post. It's coming. Hell some on here don't think Justin is a good player

 

[Bdawg2309]

This team has been terrible with RISP the past few years.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Kind of like (insert Braves player here) can't be as bad as last season. That whole saying is a load of crap. If a player sucks he won't get better simply because he can't repeat a terrible season again. Same holds true for any team.

And your comparing a 6 game sample vs a full season sample. Even the worst teams average 3.5 runs a game.

 

[zitothebrave]

This team has been terrible with RISP the past few years.

OPS w/RISP, Braves vs NL average

2013 - .732 vs .713
2012 - .697 vs .728
2011 - .714 vs .723
2010 - .775 vs .760

Basically we've been right around the league average. Not ideal you'd like to be better than average but terrible is an exaggeration, aside from 2012, we were terrible then.

 

[nsacpi]

This team has been terrible with RISP the past few years.

.022 differential this year...meaning overall BA is higher by .022 than BA with RISP
-.002 differential in 2013...meaning we did slightly better with RISP
.016 differential in 2012
-.007 in 2011

Those numbers and those in Zito's post above show that there isn't really a systematic tendency on this team's part to have trouble hitting with RISP.

 

[Julio3000]

Harang will be huge tomorrow.

Harang will be huge tomorrow, and every subsequent day.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

And your comparing a 6 game sample vs a full season sample. Even the worst teams average 3.5 runs a game.

Too bad the Braves don't average 3.5 runs a game. If they did they would have 20 wins right now.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Too bad the Braves don't average 3.5 runs a game. If they did they would have 20 wins right now.

Would you take an avatar bet that they will average over 3.5 runs per game for the season?

 

[Russ2dollas]

There's not much we can do other than Uggla.

We just signed CJ with him struggling.

We need some guys to keep the line moving. We need OBP......do we have any other moves than benching Uggla?

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Would you take an avatar bet that they will average over 3.5 runs per game for the season?

3.5 is pretty attainable. They are at 3.3 now. I think they will crack that number. So I would have to decline.

 

[Hawk]

What's he supposed to say?

More?

 

[nsacpi]

There's not much we can do other than Uggla.

We just signed CJ with him struggling.

We need some guys to keep the line moving. We need OBP......do we have any other moves than benching Uggla?

The main move is what you mentioned...giving the other second base candidates more games.

Another move would be to slightly increase Gattis' playing time.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Another move would be to slightly increase Gattis' playing time.

That isn't happening. After the game today Gattis had to crawl into the locker room.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

That isn't happening. After the game today Gattis had to crawl into the locker room.

Yeah I agree, unless the NL goes stupid and adopts the DH, Gattis' knees are going to shorten his career. Better enjoy him while he is here.

 

[The Tariff King]

You can see how bad Gattis' knees are just from the way he runs. He has to use more core and arms to pick the legs up instead of hauling with his knees.