GDT #31: 5/5/14 Cardinals vs Braves 7:10 PM

Millwood1Hitter said:
The Uptons have to be 2 of the most overhyped players if this generation, so much talent, so little contribution to winning.

One should be hitting line drives all over the field like Sheffield and be a periennel MVP middle of the order hitter, while the other should be one of the best all around outfielders in the game like McCutchen.
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As much as I dislike BJ he isn't the root of the problems right now. He's performing pretty bad like I knew he would. It's guys like CJ and Jason who are killing this team. Jason has swung it well the last week, but then then Freddie took a week off himself so it balanced out.
 
Tomorrow night I'd go with Pena at third and Pastornicky at second. Reward Pena for his good game by keeping him in the lineup.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
As much as I dislike BJ he isn't the root of the problems right now. He's performing pretty bad like I knew he would. It's guys like CJ and Jason who are killing this team. Jason has swung it well the last week, but then then Freddie took a week off himself so it balanced out.
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You are right for the most part. Heyward has been hitting pretty well for the last 2 weeks plus. BJ has been doing well for almost 4 weeks now. It's one eye Freddie and Justin who aren't getting the big hits (especially Justin this week) now.
 
thewupk said:
You are right for the most part. Heyward has been hitting pretty well for the last 2 weeks plus. BJ has been doing well for almost 4 weeks now. It's one eye Freddie and Justin who aren't getting the big hits (especially Justin this week) now.
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It's just frustrating because this lineup has talented hitters in it. They just can't seem to get it going at the same time. My expectations for the most part have been on par.

Below include Jason and CJ. Around what I expect include everyone else in the lineup. Simmons is hitting a tad better than I thought he would, but his on base is pretty poor thus far. Obviously my predictions/expectations aren't the standard.
 
Pena is a good player. Just watch him with an open mind. He is a much better hitter than during his Yankees years. He can actually drive the ball for extra base hits now, which he didn't in his earlier years. He's worked very hard to get stronger.
 
Pena should start everyday at either 2B or 3B, switching between the two based on matchups until he proves he can't handle it. He has been nothing but a good player since the Braves have had him.
 
jpack1 said:
Pena should start everyday at either 2B or 3B, switching between the two based on matchups until he proves he can't handle it. He has been nothing but a good player since the Braves have had him.
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Pena is a badplayer. But that said, Uggla has nothing in the tank and BABIP hasn't found his luck from last year yet. Until someone starts hitting (or they use their brain and bring of TLS) he should be out there every day because right now he's better than Johnson and Uggla because those 2 are bat first players who aren't hitting.
 
I don't expect Pena to continue to put up an OPS of over .800, but I am pretty comfortable projecting he'll be over .700 going forward. He's got some pop in his bat. 13 extra base hits in 142 plate appearances in the majors the past two years. La Stella has 2 extra base hits in 113 AAA plate appearances this year. Pena is also the better defender of the two.

It is kind of cool we've reached a point where maybe those two are our main options at second. I appreciated Uggla's grit and hustle, but it is time to move on. Let the Pena vs La Stella vs Pastornicky debate begin.
 
We went through similar stretches last season. Every year I'm surprised fans don't recognize that over the course of a full season there are going to be some pretty bad offensive slumps. You just have to suffer through them and hope you can win the close games. Unfortunately right now we're losing the close games.

The only real fix is to replace Uggla. I mean you could try to trade BJ Upton and Wood for a costly but more productive CF, but the likelihood of that is slim.
 
weso1 said:
We went through similar stretches last season. Every year I'm surprised fans don't recognize that over the course of a full season there are going to be some pretty bad offensive slumps. You just have to suffer through them and hope you can win the close games. Unfortunately right now we're losing the close games.

The only real fix is to replace Uggla. I mean you could try to trade BJ Upton and Wood for a costly but more productive CF, but the likelihood of that is slim.
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Yep.
 
Pena is not an answer to any question worth asking, but he's a better option at 2B than Uggla and I wouldn't mind him spelling Johnson (that's J-O-H-N-S-O-N, Ramiro if Fredi quizzes you) periodically. He probably tops out at a reasonably good 200 AB utility guy, which is useful.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't expect Pena to continue to put up an OPS of over .800, but I am pretty comfortable projecting he'll be over .700 going forward. He's got some pop in his bat. 13 extra base hits in 142 plate appearances in the majors the past two years. La Stella has 2 extra base hits in 113 AAA plate appearances this year. Pena is also the better defender of the two.

It is kind of cool we've reached a point where maybe those two are our main options at second. I appreciated Uggla's grit and hustle, but it is time to move on. Let the Pena vs La Stella vs Pastornicky debate begin.
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Pena's power is almost certainly a giant mirage. He had one stop in the minors where he showed any significant amount of power, in 2011 he posted a .164 iso in AAA. His other minor league stops with at least 150 PA

2006 A+ .037
2007 AA .046
2008 AA .090
2009 AAA .096

If you drop Pena's iso from .250 to .100 his OPS is under .700.

Pena is a good bench player who can fill in in a pinch. Ride him while he's hot bench him when he's not.

TLS conversely in the minors of a signiificant sample posted isos of

2011 A .216
2012 A+ .158
2013 AA .131

If I had ot guess, TLS will hit for more power as his sample grows, Pena will hit for less.

To me the only debate involving TLS and Pena (Pastor sucks) is defense related.
 
I literally couldn't get upset last night after Justin struck out looking. I KNEW it was going to happen... it's just how he's been lately. I'm glad to see Jason and BJ hitting pretty well as of late, but we can't get 3-4 hitters swinging well at once and it's killing us. The offense has been a bit better when it comes to getting hits, but we aren't getting much with RISP.

I like that Fredi is trying new things with the lineup, but it's very frustrating. This feast or famine offense needs a consistent bat in it, as in Pastor (whom I personally trust) or LaStella. Someone HAS to try and cancel out all of these strikeout hitters with some good contact at-bats.

I think I actually propose: Heyward RF, LaStella 2B, Freeman 1B, JUP LF, BJ CF, CJoh 3B, Simba SS, Pitcher. I personally see that working as a solid lineup.
 
zitothebrave said:
Pena's power is almost certainly a giant mirage. He had one stop in the minors where he showed any significant amount of power, in 2011 he posted a .164 iso in AAA. His other minor league stops with at least 150 PA

2006 A+ .037
2007 AA .046
2008 AA .090
2009 AAA .096

If you drop Pena's iso from .250 to .100 his OPS is under .700.

Pena is a good bench player who can fill in in a pinch. Ride him while he's hot bench him when he's not.

TLS conversely in the minors of a signiificant sample posted isos of

2011 A .216
2012 A+ .158
2013 AA .131

If I had ot guess, TLS will hit for more power as his sample grows, Pena will hit for less.

To me the only debate involving TLS and Pena (Pastor sucks) is defense related.
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I understand the argument about Pena's past lack of power and the small sample the last two years of his increased power. I'm just saying in his case my eyes tell me that the small sample is not entirely misleading. The ball jumps off his bat.

What do you think of TLS loss of power as he's moved up each level. What kind of ISO would you expect from him at the ML level?
 
nsacpi said:
I understand the argument about Pena's past lack of power and the small sample the last two years of his increased power. I'm just saying in his case my eyes tell me that the small sample is not entirely misleading. The ball jumps off his bat.

What do you think of TLS loss of power as he's moved up each level. What kind of ISO would you expect from him at the ML level?
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The ball looks like it jumps off his bat because you've seen him catch a few lucky HRs in the past 2 years. Take away a few lucky swings and he is the same light hitting utility guy he has always been. Just like when Bourn got into a few HRs early in his last season in Atlanta and everyone was saying silly things along the lines of, "now he finally found his power stroke and could be an MVP candidate". Spoiler: Bourn didn't hit another HR that year, and I called it while everyone was acting like excited school girls early in that season.

I would expect TLS to have an ISO just over .100 that might increase a bit over the years. The point is not that TLS is going to be Chase Utley. The point is that TLS won't be the worst player in the game like Uggla is, which is all we can really hope for at this point.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I literally couldn't get upset last night after Justin struck out looking. I KNEW it was going to happen... it's just how he's been lately. I'm glad to see Jason and BJ hitting pretty well as of late, but we can't get 3-4 hitters swinging well at once and it's killing us. The offense has been a bit better when it comes to getting hits, but we aren't getting much with RISP.

I like that Fredi is trying new things with the lineup, but it's very frustrating. This feast or famine offense needs a consistent bat in it, as in Pastor (whom I personally trust) or LaStella. Someone HAS to try and cancel out all of these strikeout hitters with some good contact at-bats.

I think I actually propose: Heyward RF, LaStella 2B, Freeman 1B, JUP LF, BJ CF, CJoh 3B, Simba SS, Pitcher. I personally see that working as a solid lineup.
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First, you have no catcher. Second, there is no way Fredi is going to stack the 3 LHed hitters at the top of the lineup. The top 4 needs to be Heyward, Justin, Freeman and Gattis. Stick BJ 5th ahead of CJ and TLS so he can steal bases in front of a couple of singles hitters. Simmons 8th where his aggression might drive in a run before the pitcher hits.
 
Enscheff said:
The ball looks like it jumps off his bat because you've seen him catch a few lucky HRs in the past 2 years. Take away a few lucky swings and he is the same light hitting utility guy he has always been. Just like when Bourn got into a few HRs early in his last season in Atlanta and everyone was saying silly things along the lines of, "now he finally found his power stroke and could be an MVP candidate". Spoiler: Bourn didn't hit another HR that year, and I called it while everyone was acting like excited school girls early in that season.

I would expect TLS to have an ISO just over .100 that might increase a bit over the years. The point is not that TLS is going to be Chase Utley. The point is that TLS won't be the worst player in the game like Uggla is, which is all we can really hope for at this point.
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Maybe. I don't know if I'd go much higher. He may be one of those guys whose isoOBP is higher than is isoSLG. At any rate, he'd likely be an improvement over Uggla. He could be Gregor Blanco with better contact skills.
 
nsacpi said:
So far La Stella's ISO in AAA is .029 in 117 PA's.
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And Pena's is .180 in 34 MLB PAs. So what? Pena also has a career MLB OBP of .284 after posting a career MiLB OBP of .320. He is not a good hitter, period. I'm surprised you are letting a handful of fluke HRs cloud your judgment of a player so much.
 
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