sturg33
I
This is 2 months old but why is Trump demanding this when it's the supplier country who foots the bill?
(Good thing you have your protest to protect you from your idiocy)
Economics Thread
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
(Good thing you have your protest to protect you from your idiocy)
We’re cutting deals where we keep paying tariffs and our trade partners open up their trade (or don’t and we pretend they do) so I wouldn’t count on it?
chop2chip
Well-known member
Real economic headwind
Goldman sees tariffs as a real economic headwind—not just a headline risk. Higher prices may drag on real incomes, stalling consumption and growth. Add slowing hiring and trade data, and the stage is set for policy shifts and weaker GDP. But there is always a silver lining...Tariffs boost inflation
GS: "...we expect our baseline tariff forecast to result in a roughly 1.7pp cumulative boost to core PCE prices between 2025 and 2027."
Goldman argues that even a one-time price increase will eat into real income, at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky.
GS: "...we estimate that real personal consumption has now stagnated on net for six months, which rarely happens outside of recession."
The weakness in consumption and housing has pushed down their tracking estimate for H1 real GDP growth to 1.1%, about a percentage point below potential.
GS continued: "We expect a similar pace in H2, as the growing real income drag from tariff-related price increases offsets the boost from easier financial conditions."
The pace of hiring is slowing
Private payrolls grew only 74k in June according to the Labor Department and contracted outright according to ADP. On a similar note, the payroll diffusion index has fallen to levels indicating that there are now just as many industries cutting as adding jobs.GS: "... if GDP growth remains sluggish, the labor market might soon hit “stall speed”—a pace of job creation weak enough to trigger a self-reinforcing rise in unemployment. "
First there was new data showing the number of shipping containers carrying US imports fell for a second straight month, setting the stage for one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record thanks to President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Veteran industry analyst John McCown, writing in a monthly report based on the 10 largest US ports, said that inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before. Similar declines during the global financial crisis and the pandemic were short-term slumps. In this case, however, he estimated that a 25% reduction in US container volumes is “readily possible” and would translate “directly into a $510 billion reduction in annual commerce for the US.”
You’d really believe the Fake News WSJ?
acesfull86
Well-known member
If Cleveland Cliffs doesn’t even plan to use existing steel plants in the face of massive tariffs on steel, what the heck are we doing here?
acesfull86
Well-known member
Do you even care about the workers of the poor *checks notes* US Circuit industry? Just ignore that the industry is probably dead from the massive increase in their raw material costs. Only Panicans talk about that.
If there were ever a graph that explains how you can’t just lie about the economy forever, this is it.