I honestly don’t know
Michael Harris II
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Again, command and mechanics have always plagued Waldrep. Even in college, he would look better than Skenes in one start and the next start he gives up 8 runs.
There is something to that. A lot people mention how it has a sort of knuckle shape.
Here's an article from Kiley McDaniel talking about it last year.
Braves Put Riley Back on IL, Call Up Two Infielders and Option Outfielder
The Atlanta Braves set up their roster for the Brewers series while also placing their All-Star third baseman back on the injured list
www.si.com
"I call Waldrep's splitter a knuckle splitter because he holds it deep into his fingers, it doesn't spin much, and it comes out a little differently every time"
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Yeah you can forget about Tucker. I think until Acuna's future is settled they are going to be really shy about long term contracts. Maybe they do a long term contract for Bichette or Cease given our need for a SS and pitchers who arent on the DL. Hard to see them doing two much less two in one offseason.
How reliable is stuff+ though? My understanding is that it's still pretty experimental. This paper seems to think it's still pretty lacking compared to other stats (namely xwOBA) that take batted ball outcomes into account:
They're only looking at fastballs in that paper, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect their conclusions to hold at least partially true for other pitches.
They're only looking at fastballs in that paper, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect their conclusions to hold at least partially true for other pitches.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Next to VirginiaBrave I'm probably the biggest Freeman bobo on the board, but I saw the logic in letting him walk given his age and contract demands. Olson is a very good 1B. Whether he's the best 1B in baseball like some here think is up for debate, but he can go a long way in carrying a team when he's hot. That hasn't worked that well this season because everyone else has pretty much been ice cold and he can't do it alone (no one can).
I questioned the extensions in total. As I've written several times, each of the deals can be easily justified as a reasonable--sometimes below market rate--expenditure. It's all of them together that has sucked up all the payroll flexibility and if you are a franchise that is determined to stay below the luxury tax threshold all of the extensions have to work at the envisioned levels because if they don't, you don't have the space to get ready replacements. I think Anthopoulos took a somewhat odd approach (at least to me) in trying to maximize the Acuna window. If you are budget conscious, you absolutely have to have a nimble payroll that will allow you to move around and fill holes as performance issues and injuries arise. I think the extensions--again, in total-- have prevented that.
Braves have been ravaged by injuries and their position player talent pool in the upper levels of the minors hasn't been very deep. The minor league angle may be changing a bit and we'll see how the development goes.
On another note regarding Freeman and Olson, have they ever both been hot at the same time this season? First stage of the season, Freeman is smoking hot and Olson is tepid. Then Freeman goes on an unprecedented nosedive and Olson just rips. Last couple of weeks, it's turned around again.
They say Stuff+ takes around 100 pitches to stabilize. So indeed, any data taken from Sunday needs to consider that. But Stuff+ has been a very good indicator on the amount of swing and misses you typically see (or expect to see) on a particular pitch.
Not that it matters though. The spin rate on Waldrep's splitter is elite. We already know that. So if it isn't dropping at those low spin rates, than it's either a mechanical/arm slot issue (we know he has issues repeating mechanics) or as tapate said, it acts like a knuckle ball and can flutter.
I'm not sure how Stuff+ works, but from what I've seen I'm not impressed.
Movement data is literally right there for anyone to look at, so it's not like there's some barrier to entry people have to overcome. Anyone can look at how much his split moves, and compare it to how much a split from another pitcher moves. There is nothing magical or confusing about any of this data. It's all there for anyone to look at.
If Waldrep throws a split that is terrible 30% of the time, it's not a good pitch. The one that dropped 2" was good, but the pitch overall is not good. If the movement of the pitch is different by 6" every time he throws it, he will never be able to command it.
Any amount of backspin will create an upwards magus force causing rise. The confusion is likely that "rise" doesn't mean the ball rises. "Rise" means it doesn't drop as much as it would with no upward magus force applied, and only gravity pulling it down. Gravity always pulls all pitches down, so "sink" is defined as additional downward movement due to spin induced magus force (topspin, like Fried's curve).
The randomness in knuckleball movement is due to the absence of any magus force whatsoever. Taking a look at MLB knuckleballs the spin rate is 138-305. So unless Waldrep is throwing splits that sometimes don't spin at all (again, verifiable by looking at the publicly available data), it isn't acting like a knuckleball.
Most likely he is just inconsistently spinning the split on a different axis each time, and sometimes that axis results in the equivalent of an 88 mph 4 seamer with absolutely no movement that is a BP fastball waiting to be pulverized.
I have a degree in engineering physics and my current job title is Specialty Mathematics Technical Lead at a multi-billion dollar slot gaming company. I'm named inventor on several patents and trade secrets involving mathematical verification/analysis. I can sure you will 100% confidence I know what this data means.
So again, the data shows the movement of Waldrep's split is not good compared to splits thrown by other MLB pitchers. Your opinion on that data is irrelevant because the data is factual.
Like a lot of these stats that have come out over the years I look at the the list of top performers and then see if the players on it should be there by the eye/results test. Stuff+ has Logan Gilbert and Schwelly with the two best splitters in 2025. They both have excellent splitters. So looking at that it seems there is something to it.
Or lack there of
LMAO, the internet accolades guy.
I've never seen someone so intent on telling everyone how much smarter he is than everyone else. Talk about overcompensating.
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
Probably so. Not the intention I had for starting this thread. This site tends to have that happen at times
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
This thread
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
As an inveterate cynic, my personal Joker transformation into “more optimistic than 80% of this board” has been tough.
The only thing tougher has been watching so many posters vie for “coolest/bravest/smartest cynic.” Just because the word has “cy” in it doesn’t mean you get extra time with Cy’s mom.
Last edited: