Usually yes, guys usually come back from elbow surgery throwing at least as hard they did before the surgery. Usually guys take a while to build back endurance and feel for breaking stuff, but the velocity is there.
Now the apologists will jump in with some excuses about the brace procedure being different, or the recovery time not being as long as someone else (probably will mention Ohtani), or some other nitpicky argument about why strider’s situation is somehow different.
But the fact remains guys usually have their velocity immediately when they come back from elbow reconstruction. If the brace changes that…what good is that procedure, and why did they let strider get it?
So now Strider either learns to pitch with a lesser heater, or somehow gets the velocity back. We’ve seen a strong history in previous seasons of him not being very effective without 99+ in the tank, so hopefully he can figure something out.