Southcack77
Well-known member
There is a lot of older pretty decent pitching?
2025-2026 offseason thread
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
I listed at least 6 pitchers who are either 3-4 WAR pitchers or better right now or who are projected to be roughly 3-4+ WAR pitchers in 2026. Most of them are under 31 years old. I'm not quite sure how young you are expecting a FA pitcher to be. But that's pretty standard.
And then I posted a host of other pitchers who have posted 2-3 WAR this year or were previously TOR pitchers. So yeah, I'd say that is an abundance of quality pitching.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Valdez (32) - The "headliner" of the free agent class and I’m sort, but Atlanta is surely not going to be the high bid on a 32 year old pitcher seeking big dollars and years. For what it’s worth he took a step back this year. His expected stats trended towards average-ish He gets hit pretty hard. I’m not sure I even want the Braves to inquire.
Dylan Cease (30): His results seem to be a little at odds with the expected stats and he has in any event been better in the second half. One of those guys folks just want to be a affordable sleeper but in the end everyone is on him and he goes for every bit of his value and more.
Brandon Woodruff (30): coming off shoulder surgery that had 12 really good starts before going down against this week with a lat strain. He has a $20m that he could choose to exercise so it isn’t certain he will be a free agent. In limited appearances, his xwboa is sensational, but underneath that he’s lost a lot of velocity off his repertoire. Is it gone forever or will it show up next season. So in essence you have another high risk, high reward former ace who isn’t quite himself.
Ranger Suarez (30): Last guy that really is a 3 win pitcher. Obviously, not a guy that throws hard but one that guys have a real problem squaring up.
Michael King (31): Stop me if you have heard this one. Reliever turns starter who has a great first full season in the new role. Then comes back to earth with injury plagued second season. He’s performed like a back end rotation guy when he’s been able to go out on the mound this year as he did separate DL stints for shoulder (uh oh) and knee. Not much to like in his statcast profile this year. I’m not sure he opts out myself.
Shane Bieber: Has not really pitched in two years. An obvious injury risk. Basically no sample size here in 2025 (though what little there is back end of the rotation). Has not been healthy and good since 2022, which was a bit anomalous in itself. I don’t think you can call him a 3 win pitcher and again, I don’t necessarily think he’s in a great shape to opt out. Is someone really going to give him multiple years at better than 16m?
*Freddy Peralta: Club is almost certain to pick up his $8m option.
All in all:
Dylan Cease would be good despite an up and down season results wise. I just think he’ll be expensive and he's not exactly the guy you throw out in Game 1 and feel a huge advantage.
I enjoy a good risk so Woodruff, even with diminished stuff, is intriguing since he’s making less stuff play and may yet get a tick or so back another year removed from surgery. If he’s even on the market. I think the most like scenario is he doesn’t hit the free market. But I’d be on him if he did.
I’d be fine with Suarez as I had him cheap in my main fantasy league and he delivered pretty well, honestly would be not super exciting. Getting him at a fair price would be a good outcome. I don’t really look at that as a championship move, but it makes the team better.
The rest of the guys? Nah, man. King and Bieber at more than their option does not appeal to me.
Dylan Cease (30): His results seem to be a little at odds with the expected stats and he has in any event been better in the second half. One of those guys folks just want to be a affordable sleeper but in the end everyone is on him and he goes for every bit of his value and more.
Brandon Woodruff (30): coming off shoulder surgery that had 12 really good starts before going down against this week with a lat strain. He has a $20m that he could choose to exercise so it isn’t certain he will be a free agent. In limited appearances, his xwboa is sensational, but underneath that he’s lost a lot of velocity off his repertoire. Is it gone forever or will it show up next season. So in essence you have another high risk, high reward former ace who isn’t quite himself.
Ranger Suarez (30): Last guy that really is a 3 win pitcher. Obviously, not a guy that throws hard but one that guys have a real problem squaring up.
Michael King (31): Stop me if you have heard this one. Reliever turns starter who has a great first full season in the new role. Then comes back to earth with injury plagued second season. He’s performed like a back end rotation guy when he’s been able to go out on the mound this year as he did separate DL stints for shoulder (uh oh) and knee. Not much to like in his statcast profile this year. I’m not sure he opts out myself.
Shane Bieber: Has not really pitched in two years. An obvious injury risk. Basically no sample size here in 2025 (though what little there is back end of the rotation). Has not been healthy and good since 2022, which was a bit anomalous in itself. I don’t think you can call him a 3 win pitcher and again, I don’t necessarily think he’s in a great shape to opt out. Is someone really going to give him multiple years at better than 16m?
*Freddy Peralta: Club is almost certain to pick up his $8m option.
All in all:
Dylan Cease would be good despite an up and down season results wise. I just think he’ll be expensive and he's not exactly the guy you throw out in Game 1 and feel a huge advantage.
I enjoy a good risk so Woodruff, even with diminished stuff, is intriguing since he’s making less stuff play and may yet get a tick or so back another year removed from surgery. If he’s even on the market. I think the most like scenario is he doesn’t hit the free market. But I’d be on him if he did.
I’d be fine with Suarez as I had him cheap in my main fantasy league and he delivered pretty well, honestly would be not super exciting. Getting him at a fair price would be a good outcome. I don’t really look at that as a championship move, but it makes the team better.
The rest of the guys? Nah, man. King and Bieber at more than their option does not appeal to me.
You are missing the entire point.
There are plenty of quality options available (and yes these guys and the others I mentioned are indeed quality pitchers) which means a guy like Cease who is coming off a very mediocre season isn't going to be able to hold the market hostage trying to max out his earning potential. That's why I said I think he is the prime candidate to overplay his hand and ending take a shorter deal with opt-outs/mutual options, like Bregman or Flaherty were forced to do last off-season.
And I am not sure what your definition on back of the rotation pitcher is, but King and Bieber have absolutely not pitched like back of the rotation pitchers this year. You can call out their durability all you want and that would be valid. But they've pitched well when they've been available.
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King has a 4.43 FIP this year. How is that pitching well when you think Elder and his 4.55 FIP shouldn't be on the roster?
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
I’d take Ranger just so we don’t have to face him.
King has 1 bWAR and .8 fWAR through 70 innings. Elder has -.5 bWAR and .8 fWAR through 149 innings.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think I disagree.
I believe there are very few guys on the market that are conceivably front of rotation guys and I think they will all get big deals.
Cease to me is the best guy currently know to be on the market. Valdez seems to be the media guy.
If your point is that you can fall back to Ranger Suarez or possibly Bieber instead I don't think that's a great argument. These aren't players on similar levels.
Cease has an ERA closer to Bryce Elder than he does Michael King, who you say is a back of the rotation pitcher.
I get that ERA is misleading and teams don't put much stock into it, but it also isn't completely irrelevant. I can promise you teams are taking note of Cease's mediocre season, while playing half his games in arguably the most pitcher friendly park no less. His combined ERA the last 3 seasons is 4.20 in 529 innings pitched. As I've said numerous, at some point you are what the stats say you are and not what your expected stats say.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
If.. and it's a big if, we get everyone back next year I'm not sure we're shopping in the high end of the SP store. More like the bargain bin for a 6th starter. I mean.. We have Sale, Schwelly, Strider, Waldrep. Then Holmes and Lopez coming back from injury, and Elder as the backup to all those guys. I wouldn't mind getting someone like Mahle who can go out there and compete but we aren't paying any kind of money there I don't think. Best to spend it on the BP. It all comes down to whether Schwelly and Lopez can come back. (and Holmes, to some degree, but I have doubts).
msstate7
Well-known member
Ranger saurez is who I'd target.
Sale
SS #2
Ranger
SS#1
Waldrep/lopez/holmes/elder/richie/diddier
That's solid
Southcack77
Well-known member
I can't imagine that very many clubs put much stress on ERA at this point except in terms of winning the press conference.
Cease's underlying numbers are better in every respect with less injury risk and much more track record.
All the expected stats put him mid rotation at worst.
King on the other hand was an .327 xwoba.
Setting aside all arguing over semantics of words like "back of the rotation", "quality" and "good", there are SPs available who would be among the best 5 SPs on the Braves roster, and all should be affordable for a team with upwards of $100M to spend. AA needs to get at least 1 because it's almost guaranteed at least 1 of Sale/Schwelly/Strider/Waldrep will not be available opening day, and at least 1 of them will be injured at any given time in 2026.
The 2024/2025 xwOBA of the SPs mentioned in this thread:
Woodruff, Brandon RHP .238 (small sample, did not pitch in 2024)
Suárez, Ranger LHP .289 (.280 in 2025)
Cease, Dylan RHP .290 (.299 in 2025)
Valdez, Framber LHP .300 (.311 in 2025)
King, Michael RHP .303 (.326 in 2025)
Bieber, Shane RHP .310 (.327 in 2025, barely pitched)
MLB average xwOBA in 2025 is .325, which means all guys on this list have been above average pitchers the last 2 years.
Woodruff is the clear choice to gamble on. He's made 12 starts in 2025, and while his velocity is down 3 mph from 2023, he has been very effective. He's the guy if you want a potential TOR guy that starts a playoff series after Sale and Schwelly (assuming Strider never gets back his velocity). His upside makes him the only acceptable injury risk gamble to take.
Cease and Suarez are the next best options of health and expected performance. I prefer Cease, but I've also seen Suarez shut the Braves down so many times I would love to have him too.
Valdez should be in the same tier as Cease/Suarez, but I agree with people who say he may be the overhyped/overpaid SP this year. If he isn't overpaid he would be just fine in this rotation.
King is the same thing as Lopez...let's avoid guys with blaring red injury flags.
Bieber is in the same boat. Let's not fix an injury riddled rotation by signing a guy who made 2 starts in 2024, and 6 starts in 2025, mmmkay?
The 2024/2025 xwOBA of the SPs mentioned in this thread:
Woodruff, Brandon RHP .238 (small sample, did not pitch in 2024)
Suárez, Ranger LHP .289 (.280 in 2025)
Cease, Dylan RHP .290 (.299 in 2025)
Valdez, Framber LHP .300 (.311 in 2025)
King, Michael RHP .303 (.326 in 2025)
Bieber, Shane RHP .310 (.327 in 2025, barely pitched)
MLB average xwOBA in 2025 is .325, which means all guys on this list have been above average pitchers the last 2 years.
Woodruff is the clear choice to gamble on. He's made 12 starts in 2025, and while his velocity is down 3 mph from 2023, he has been very effective. He's the guy if you want a potential TOR guy that starts a playoff series after Sale and Schwelly (assuming Strider never gets back his velocity). His upside makes him the only acceptable injury risk gamble to take.
Cease and Suarez are the next best options of health and expected performance. I prefer Cease, but I've also seen Suarez shut the Braves down so many times I would love to have him too.
Valdez should be in the same tier as Cease/Suarez, but I agree with people who say he may be the overhyped/overpaid SP this year. If he isn't overpaid he would be just fine in this rotation.
King is the same thing as Lopez...let's avoid guys with blaring red injury flags.
Bieber is in the same boat. Let's not fix an injury riddled rotation by signing a guy who made 2 starts in 2024, and 6 starts in 2025, mmmkay?
Again, you're missing the point.
bWAR for pitchers is trash. King has barely pitched better than Elder this year. Make of that what you will.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
bWAR is not trash - it just measures different things. bWAR measures results, while fWAR measures underlying skills that should turn into results. Those underlying skills don't always turn into results (See Cease, Dylan).
There comes a point where you have to prevent runs. If you can't do that for whatever reason you're not that good.
There comes a point where you have to prevent runs. If you can't do that for whatever reason you're not that good.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
But in this case, we’re talking about future expectations for pitchers, not comparing finished seasons/careers. That’s more relevant when looking at / thinking about Michael King. (Meanwhile, we should all accept that Elder will be around as rotational depth until a lack of options forces the team’s hand.)
FIP is trash if your placing actual value on pitchers.
Elder has an ERA over 5.60 in his last 270 innings dating back to July of 2023. I don't really care what his FIP says over this time. That's a 2.5 year sample. At this point, he is what he is, which is a terrible pitcher.