NL Rookie of the Year Watch

Horton was still a -340 favorite this morning. They just took NL Rookie of the Year odds off the board after Baldwin just homered. Will keep monitoring it.
 
It's still really interesting. The odds are just odds. Baldwin still has the lead in both WARS and he's turned it on the last few games.
 
Carp said:
Horton better hope he didn't peak too early. The Reds are red hot (pun intended).
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Looks like he’s starting Tuesday against the Mets now. That would also put him starting in the season finale against the Cardinals, but I’d imagine the Cubs would skip that and save him for the postseason.
 
CJ9 said:
Looks like he’s starting Tuesday against the Mets now. That would also put him starting in the season finale against the Cardinals, but I’d imagine the Cubs would skip that and save him for the postseason.
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Yeah that seems likely.
 
NL ROY odds are back on the board and have now pushed Horton from
-340 to -370. Baldwin is +175.
 
Drake isn't qualified, but here's his ranks amount catchers if he were...
FWAR - 9th
Woba - 5th
Xwoba - 5th
Wrc+ - 4th
BA - 5th
OBP - 6th
SLG - 6th

He's gonna get robbed
 
I don't buy the odds. If he finishes these last 5 games strong and can somehow hit 2 more homers it's gonna be hard to not vote for him. The whole point of this anyways is to reward the guys that are there from day one out of ST and he's done it all. He should no doubt be rewarded for having the kind of season he's had from day 1.
 
Hudson2 said:
I don't buy the odds. If he finishes these last 5 games strong and can somehow hit 2 more homers it's gonna be hard to not vote for him. The whole point of this anyways is to reward the guys that are there from day one out of ST and he's done it all. He should no doubt be rewarded for having the kind of season he's had from day 1.
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I posted last week that unless Vegas is polling the baseball writers, their odds may not reflect what's going on in the minds of the writers. Many writers are extremely independent and outright contrarian. Predicting what they will ultimately do is difficult to discern. Baldwin has the numbers and so does Horton. Collins and Durbin have nice stories and I think both of them will get more votes than some people think. I don't think either of those two will win, but they could gum up the vote to some extent and make the final result extremely close.
 
CJ9 said:
NL ROY odds are back on the board and have now pushed Horton from
-340 to -370. Baldwin is +175.
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We understand these odds are made mostly to drive bets one way or the other, right? If lots of people are betting on Horton, the odds will be shifted to encourage more people to bet on Baldwin.

I wouldn't put much stock into what bettors think about the ROY race.
 
I think Horton gets hit hard tonight. He can't keep getting this lucky on balls in play.

The Mets already saw him once and put 3 runs on him in 4 innings. The Mets also lead the MLB in OPS vs RHP.
 
Anyone who looks past ERA will see Baldwin is clearly the better rookie, and it isn't particularly close. Of course, the people in question are baseball writers, so no telling what nonsense they will use to make their choice.

I usually don't care about these awards due to the stupidity of the voters, but now that draft picks are at stake I very much care...unfortunately.
 
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