Some Red State/Blue State Indicia

why is the murder rate higher in oklahoma than in new york city

ChatGPT said:​

That’s an excellent question — and a striking one, because it cuts against many people’s assumptions. Despite New York City’s size and reputation for violence in the past, its murder rate is now far below that of Oklahoma (and much of the rural and small-city South).

Here’s a breakdown of the key factors behind this difference:


1. Urban vs. Social Disorganization Isn’t the Same Anymore

  • New York City once had very high homicide rates (especially in the 1970s–1990s), but it underwent a long-term decline due to a combination of factors: better policing strategies, community stabilization, and changes in demographics and drug markets.
  • Oklahoma, by contrast, has many smaller cities and rural areas with higher social and economic stress but fewer institutional supports (mental health, community programs, law enforcement resources). In these environments, interpersonal disputes and domestic violence are much more likely to turn lethal.

2. Gun Availability

  • Oklahoma has among the highest rates of gun ownership and least restrictive gun laws in the U.S.
  • New York City has some of the strictest gun laws and aggressive enforcement (e.g., federal prosecutions for illegal possession).
  • As a result, assaults or arguments in Oklahoma are much more likely to involve a firearm and thus to end in death.

3. Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Distress

  • Oklahoma’s poverty rate is higher and its safety net weaker than New York City’s.
  • Many homicides stem from economic stress, unstable housing, and drug-related conflicts.
  • Rural and small-town Oklahoma lacks access to jobs, education, and mental health services that buffer these stresses.

4. Substance Abuse and Mental Health

  • Oklahoma has very high rates of methamphetamine and opioid use, both of which correlate with violent crime.
  • New York City has drug issues too, but its harm-reduction infrastructure (e.g., outreach, treatment programs, overdose prevention) is far more developed.

5. Demographic and Cultural Factors

  • In parts of Oklahoma, violence is often interpersonal rather than organized — domestic disputes, bar fights, and personal conflicts that escalate due to firearm presence and limited de-escalation resources.
  • In New York City, homicides are increasingly concentrated in a few neighborhoods and often tied to specific, targeted circumstances (gang or retaliation cases), while most of the city remains extremely safe.

6. Policing and Emergency Response

  • NYC’s police department and medical infrastructure are massive and sophisticated, with fast response times and trauma centers that save lives.
  • In Oklahoma, rural distances and limited trauma care mean that shootings and stabbings are more likely to result in death before victims reach medical help.

7. Culture and Social Norms

  • Sociologists sometimes describe parts of the rural South and lower Midwest (including Oklahoma) as having elements of a “culture of honor,” where personal slights or conflicts are more likely to be met with violence.
  • Combined with easy gun access, this cultural factor raises homicide risk even in small towns.

In summary

New York City’s low murder rate reflects:

  • strong institutional capacity (police, courts, hospitals),
  • strict gun control,
  • dense social networks,
  • and decades of targeted reform.
Oklahoma’s higher rate reflects:

  • widespread gun ownership,
  • weaker safety nets,
  • substance abuse problems,
  • and fewer social and institutional supports.
 
Tulsa and Oklahoma City are both run by Republicans and have been for many years.

Here are the relevant homicide rates (per 100,000)

OKC: 11.6
Tulsa : 12.5
NYC: 4.5

Tell me who should be offering advice to whom when it comes to keeping their people safe. I understand that Tulsa and OKC are handicapped by violent dysfunctional cultures that may not be amenable to good policy. They just be unlucky that way.
 
I'm happy to apply a discount factor of 50% to the murders in Tulsa and OKC on grounds they are crimes due to being a bunch of retarded rednecks further addled by meth and other addictions. Would still leave their murder rates comfortably above NY City's.
 
Tulsa and Oklahoma City are both run by Republicans and have been for many years.

Here are the relevant homicide rates (per 100,000)

OKC: 11.6
Tulsa : 12.5
NYC: 4.5

Tell me who should be offering advice to whom when it comes to keeping their people safe. I understand that Tulsa and OKC are handicapped by violent dysfunctional cultures that may not be amenable to good policy. They just be unlucky that way.

Seems like a lot more murders happen in NYC then.
 
I would say it says something about one criminal. Having an overall murder rate 3 time NY City's says something about an entire population, culture and political system.
Black males have a homicide rate 8x higher than while males.

What does that say about the entire population, culture, and political system?
 
My offer to apply a 50 percent discount due to their being meth addled retards still stands.

Anyhow Tulsa and OKC, both of which I've visited multiple times, do have decent barbecue. So they are not without redeeming qualities. Just very high crime and violence. And very low educational attainment and life expectancy. In other words, a pretty good look at what decades of Republican governance and what passes for conservative ideology gets you.
 
Why do you think that is, professor? And do you think southern states that have a very large black population suffer from that dysfunction?
NYCity has a higher black population share than Tulsa and Oklahoma City. An indication that you can't blame race for the stunning levels of violent crime in those two Republican run cities. It's a good thang to have those Republican led cities so we have an idea of what they can accomplish. So far their accomplishments include:

1) High rates of violence and murder

2) Low levels of educational attainment

3) High levels of poverty

4) High rates of substance abuse

5) Low life expectancy

That's an amazing record. But I'm willing to give them a pass cuz they preside over a bunch of meth-addled retards.

There is a subtle question of causality. Does being a mess make them Republican or does being Republican-governed make them a hot mess. The causality probably goes in both directions.
 
Last edited:
Baltimores murder rate is 46 per 100,000

Blue run or red ?
Blue. They have made progress but it remains way too high. I take encouragement from the improvement they made in 2024 and the fact that murders in 2025 are down another 25% compared to the same period in 2024. Baltimore has problems but they have a mayor who doesn't give up and say that's just the way it is like folks in red states who don't know anything better than to offer excuses like the hospitals are so far apart.

Btw San Francisco is another blue city reducing crime bigly. Murders there are on track to be at the lowest rate in over 50 years.

Hope red governed areas rise to the challenge and bring down their (higher) murder rates in similar fashion. Would be a win-win all around.
 
Back
Top