It's picking a start date of where he started to suck. It's the definition of cherry picking. I can do the same and say he pitched like a #3 towards the end of the season. Doesn't mean that's what he is.
2025-2026 offseason thread
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
It's picking a start date of where he started to suck. It's the definition of cherry picking. I can do the same and say he pitched like a #3 towards the end of the season. Doesn't mean that's what he is.
I can use the last 2 seasons if you'd rather do that. It's actually far from Cherry picking by using MORE data.
msstate7
Well-known member
Why not all the data?
Because he hasn't been anything close to resembling Elder pre-July 2023, which was a facade itself. He's been roughly the same pitcher since July 2023. And he has the highest ERA in baseball over the span.
msstate7
Well-known member
Pre-July 2023...
150.0 IP
7.56 k9/3.06 bb9
2.70 era
3.76 FIP
3.99 xFIP
Since July this season...
88.1 ip
7.54 k9/2.75 bb9
4.89 era
3.95 FIP
4.07 xFIP
Seems like he has pitched at that same level his last 88.1 IP
If you think that supports your argument you are insane.
I literally posted his last 2.5 years of data. But somehow that's cherry picking?
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msstate7
Well-known member
Elder didn't have any career changing injury in his career, and he's only 26, so let's just use his whole sample. He started well, had a rocky middle sample, and got back solid down the stretch this season. He isn't good, but he's hardly invaluable. The only stat you seem to care about is ERa, not xERa, FIP, or XFIP, so here's one you should like, old school - elder is 24-24 as a starter.
I care about those from season to season. And they can be useful. I do use FIP, xFIP, wOBA, etc, on many occasions. But as I have said again and again, at some point, you are what your stats say you are, and not what your expected stats think you are. It's 2.5 seasons and 278 consecutive innings of suckitude. This is who he is.
I am perfectly willing to say his true performance is somewhere in the middle of that 5.63 ERA and 4.76 FIP (which, that FIP is still awful by the way). But that still puts him with an ERA over 5 and not suitable to be a 5th starter for any competitive team.
msstate7
Well-known member
Honest question - what's your reasoning for throwing out his 2022 - 2023 at break stats? I could see if he had a career changing injury or it was before he turned 30 or he had a velocity drop, but he's had none of those. He was young then, and he's still pretty young.
The league hadn't seen much of him yet. The same reason Sean Newcomb and Ian Anderson had early success, only to see it fizzle quickly once the league adjusted. There are thousands of cases just like it in MLB history.
Elder is not the type of guy that you need to see a lot of to get an idea of what he's gonna do.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Honestly the depth wasnt even bad this year. We cant go into every year thinking we need 10 good SP. If by midseason Sale is out for the year, Schwelly breaks his arm, and Waldrep has TJ surgery we are cooked. Maybe the rest of the teams good enough to squeak into the playoffs but they wont be there long. We can only dump so many resources into pitching. At some point we have to improve the rest of the team to the point where we can be a .500 team starting guys like Elder and Wentz. A good offense and a good pen go a long way in masking the rotation depth issues.
Right, this team didn’t have quality depth anywhere, including the position players.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Let me put it this way. If we could turn off injuries I would be fine with his production at his low cost in the 5th spot so we could put more money elsewhere. And I might be AA's biggest defender but I do agree, not signing a Quintana level starter/starting Holmes in the pen and releasing Laureano I feel had a minimum of 10 game impact. Holmes would have still had to go to the rotation and probably still got hurt but we atleast would have had someone to turn to when Iggy was shitting the bed. These seem like mistakes from trying to be cheap. Those two things would have cost us about 15 million. So I have to wonder if that rumor about them really wanting to get under the luxury cap was true. I dont think the idea to get under the luxury cap was so they could spend big the year after either. I think the luxury cap is our soft cap for the payroll. Not that they cant spend over, but that they dont want to spend over. Sucks when it wrecks the season but this is so vastly improved from being stuck at 120 million for 20 years.
Finkle is Einhorn.
chop2chip
Well-known member
You’re not wrong, but in the case of the Braves we are entering next season with our top 5 starting pitchers being higher than expected injury risks
Sale - Mid 30’s. Your guess is as good as mine what ailment will cause him to miss time
Strider - Multiple arm injuries. Days as a TOR may be over
Schwelly - His arm literally exploded
Lopez - Shoulder. Likely needs to back to the pen
Holmes - High likelihood to need Tommy John
Waldrep, Elder, Ritchie are nice depth, but the risk profile requires at least 2-3 high quality options, including someone you could trust to start a playoff game.
msstate7
Well-known member
I definitely want some depth options, but whoever called it here that no one will sign on for that has a strong point.
chop2chip
Well-known member
No one’s asking free agents to sign here to pitch out of the bullpen or Gwinnett. We only have three pitchers that are guaranteed to start the season in the rotation. Everyone else either has options or can pitch out of the bullpen.
msstate7
Well-known member
Sale, strider, SS, and Waldrep are pretty much locks to start the season in the rotation. I'm not sold strider sticks, and God knows, sale will end up hurt, but I have a hard time seeing us selling 2 starting pitchers on signing. I think it's 1 starter and someone that AA identifies as a Lopez/king/holmes. Of course, he could trade for a starter to remove their choice