2025-2026 offseason thread

Really interesting quote from Terry McGuirk on today's investor call. (I stole this from someone on Twitter, but validated this is accurate):

His goal is to be a "top five" payroll team ans while they’ve stayed inside the top ten for multiple seasons, aiming for the top five “is a place I want to get to (and) I think we’re capable of doing that.”

He says the Braves will be "quite active in the free agent market and the trade market". One of the key priorities is "adding a couple of players to a veteran, win-now squad that has years of success ahead."

Being top five in 2025 would have meant passing Toronto at $258M. Atlanta was at $213M this season.

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The Braves’ base payroll sits comfortably below the CBT threshold, and it would take roughly $260 million to crack the top five. That likely leaves them with about $50–70 million in spending flexibility. With that, they could comfortably add a starter like Cease (just as an example), a closer such as Iggy or Williams (maybe even Edwin, though he’s probably too expensive for a relief arm), and a super-utility player/SS or starting outfielder to rotate with Ronnie and Profar at DH.
 
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Problem is Terry is counting all the developers, real estate agents, contractors, and builders as part of the top 5 payroll.. so he probably needs to reduce the Brave's payroll to fit of those folks in.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Really interesting quote from Terry McGuirk on today's investor call. (I stole this from someone on Twitter, but validated this is accurate):

His goal is to be a "top five" payroll team ans while they’ve stayed inside the top ten for multiple seasons, aiming for the top five “is a place I want to get to (and) I think we’re capable of doing that.”

He says the Braves will be "quite active in the free agent market and the trade market". One of the key priorities is "adding a couple of players to a veteran, win-now squad that has years of success ahead."

Being top five in 2025 would have meant passing Toronto at $258M. Atlanta was at $213M this season.

---

The Braves’ base payroll sits comfortably below the CBT threshold, and it would take roughly $260 million to crack the top five. That likely leaves them with about $50–70 million in spending flexibility. With that, they could comfortably add a starter like Cease (just as an example), a closer such as Iggy or Williams (maybe even Edwin, though he’s probably too expensive for a relief arm), and a super-utility player/SS or starting outfielder to rotate with Ronnie and Profar at DH.
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But weren’t they top 5 last year? It doesn’t seem like much to be a top 5 payroll team with so much salary already baked in. I want to see them extend beyond the 3rd CBT threshold and really fill in the holes on this team with impact players and quality depth.
 
rawwr said:
Bader just turned down a $10 million option and he's coming off the best year of his career, he's going to get more than that in FA. We gave Profar 3/42 and he can't even play LF, much less CF.

I have a feeling Diaz will get more than that too.

Why would the Mariners trade Crawford when they're trying to contend? I know Seattle has said they're going to give Emerson a shot to win the SS job in spring training, but contending teams don't trade league average affordable starters to clear space for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the majors.
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Because he has 1 year remaining, isn't a core player, and they have several top SS prospects.
 
rawwr said:
Bader just turned down a $10 million option and he's coming off the best year of his career, he's going to get more than that in FA. We gave Profar 3/42 and he can't even play LF, much less CF.

I have a feeling Diaz will get more than that too.

Why would the Mariners trade Crawford when they're trying to contend? I know Seattle has said they're going to give Emerson a shot to win the SS job in spring training, but contending teams don't trade league average affordable starters to clear space for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the majors.
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Just bc Bader turned it down doesn't mean he'll get more per year could just be more overall. And the Mariners have a lot of good SS prospects so they could live without Crawford who only has 1 year left on his deal. With the CBA looming a lot of teams may be reluctant to spend this offseason.
 
FG just released their FA projections: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

As much as we like to think now is the time to splurge on an OFer like Tucker, the Braves aren't giving him $300M. Let's not even waste the energy.

I'm going to assume Cease, Valdez and Suarez are out of AA's price range due to the QO and $150M price tag. If he does shop from that bin, the obvious choice is Cease due to being the most likely guy to offer true impact in October. I think Valdez will be the biggest bust of this entire FA class, and Suarez will not be "crafty" for much longer.

The options for BP Ace pretty much boil down to Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Helsley, and Iglesias. Yes, our beloved Iggy. It's interesting this article uses the "BP arms are volatile and can bounce back from a bad 2025" argument for Helsley and Williams, but does not offer Iglesias the same excuse. Here are the xwOBAs over the last 3 years for those BP guys, along with their age and projected contracts:

Name (Age) - Contract: 2023, 2024, 2025 xwOBA
Diaz (32) - 3/$75: injured, .246, .249
Suarez (35) - 3/$48: .278, .272, .306
Williams (31) - 2/$24: .254, .225, .280
Helsley (31) - 2/$24: .233, .258, .313
Iglesias (36) - 2/$24: .276, .233, .286

Diaz is clearly the top BP arm, but even in Iggy's horrible 2025 he was still as good or better than all the other top options, and he was as elite as any of them as recently as last year. If Suarez can "bounce back" at 35, why can't Iggy at 36? Assuming Diaz isn't a real option, I'm starting to think Iggy is a great option if he can be had on a 1 year deal. In no version of the multiverse do I give Suarez $48M.

After Tucker the OF options are lame.

Grisham 3/$54
Bader 2/$30

End of list. It's a terrible time to be shopping for an OFer that allows players to be rotated through DH like a modern organization. Luckily for us, the Braves just hired a manager who won't be able to rotate players through DH to keep them healthy, so expect a bat-only guy to be signed. Perhaps Ozuna for 1/$15 to maintain the "continuity" this organization seems to love so much.
 
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Their projection for Kim at 2/$26 is obviously low. If that was his price he would still be a Brave. The crowd estimate of 3/$45 is probably much closer to reality.

The SP options beyond the top group are pretty lame. Woodruff for 2/$34 is interesting though.
 
Carp said:
Because he has 1 year remaining, isn't a core player, and they have several top SS prospects.
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The first two points mean they won't be getting much back for him, and well-run teams in contention generally don't trade 3-win players to gamble on guys who have never played in the majors

Hudson2 said:
Just bc Bader turned it down doesn't mean he'll get more per year could just be more overall. And the Mariners have a lot of good SS prospects so they could live without Crawford who only has 1 year left on his deal. With the CBA looming a lot of teams may be reluctant to spend this offseason.
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bader is absolutely getting more per year, look at the fangraphs projection
 
rawwr said:
The first two points mean they won't be getting much back for him, and well-run teams in contention generally don't trade 3-win players to gamble on guys who have never played in the majors
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They do when they don't have a ton of financial flexibility and several holes to fill.

The Padres traded away a 6+ WAR Soto with 1 year remaining on his deal while they were still trying to compete. The Astros traded away Kyle Tucker with 1 year remaining. The Brewers traded away Corbin Burnes with 1 year remaining. And there are plenty more examples of this.
 
rawwr said:
Bader just turned down a $10 million option and he's coming off the best year of his career, he's going to get more than that in FA. We gave Profar 3/42 and he can't even play LF, much less CF.

I have a feeling Diaz will get more than that too.

Why would the Mariners trade Crawford when they're trying to contend? I know Seattle has said they're going to give Emerson a shot to win the SS job in spring training, but contending teams don't trade league average affordable starters to clear space for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the majors.
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I think in Bader's case it's years as much as AAV (although he'd like AAV as high as possible). 3/$24 MM ($8 AAV) is more than 1/$10. I'm just throwing stuff out there and that's probably a bad comparison in contracts, but these guys will want extra years and they will likely give a little on AAV to get there.

Crawford is interesting. Even with a single year remaining on his deal and a SS-in-waiting, my guess is Seattle's asking price will be steep. Reasonable contract at $12 MM.
 
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