acesfull86
Well-known member
You’ll be on yet another conveniently well timed vacation
Economics Thread
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
sturg33
I
Printing is happening and costs are not down!
You cant just say complete made up things and act like youre right. You are celebrating 3% "reported" inflation
The fed is injecting liquidity to markets weekly
Just want to get this straight - Trumps rebounded economy had nothing to do with his international trade policy just like his rebounded economy today has nothing to do with it?
I'm celebrating inflation getting under control in the range its been historically - That should be celebrated.
I'm also celebrating American paying less now for their monthly expenses by alot than they have in quite some time. I'm celebrating real wages going up. I'm celebrating investment in this country thats leading to markets to boom.
Lots to celebrate.
Are you going to pretend you didn't forecast doom and gloom by this time or a major printing event?
What the fuck are you talking about?
2019 had the highest real median income in our lifetime.
Vacations are termed 'well-timed' because you guys think all news is bad. I've loved mostly everything that has been done so far and the results speak for themsevles.
BUt you can pretend you didn't expect doom and gloom.
acesfull86
Well-known member
It’s not difficult to isolate policies and judge them on their own merits. That you allegedly get paid to analyze data is scary.
He doesn't care about these kinds of metrics. They don't move him and his think tank alliegance that says tariffs are the worst thing int he history of the world.
acesfull86
Well-known member
Show me where that has ANYTHING to do with Trump’s tariffs. Please point me to the evidence. Just because two things are happening simultaneously doesn’t not mean one is causing the other.
Its not difficult to cherry pick data from compromised health care experts. You said prices would raise and all we have seen is normal inflation. You said markets would tank and we have seen the exact oppposite.
WHat exactly are you getting right in your analysis that I got wrong.
And you are right that I get paid to analyze data. In the big events that have happened the last few years COVID/Trump tariffs I've been more right than anyone.
We are now entering the realm of the economy would be even better without tariffs. Disregard our previous statements that tariffs would destroy the economy!
acesfull86
Well-known member
What was the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs in 2019
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Trump's tariffs, primarily imposed in 2018–2019 on steel, aluminum, solar panels, washing machines, and a wide range of Chinese goods (under Sections 232 and 301), aimed to protect U.S. industries, reduce the trade deficit, and boost manufacturing jobs. However, **academic and governmental studies** consistently found net negative economic impacts by 2019 and in subsequent analyses.
### Higher Consumer Prices
Tariffs were almost fully passed through to U.S. importers and consumers, with little absorption by foreign exporters. A 2019 study by economists Mary Amiti, Stephen Redding, and David Weinstein (published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives) documented substantial price increases for intermediates and final goods, complete pass-through to domestic import prices, and reductions in imported varieties.
Specific examples include:
- Washing machine prices rose by about $86–92 per unit.
- Overall consumer costs exceeded $1.5 billion annually in affected sectors.
- Broader estimates suggested an average household cost of several hundred to over $1,000 per year.
### No Boost to Manufacturing Employment
Protected sectors saw minimal or no employment gains, offset by higher input costs and foreign retaliation. A December 2019 Federal Reserve study by Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce found a net decrease in U.S. manufacturing employment, with modest gains (0.3%) in protected industries outweighed by losses from rising costs (-1.1%) and retaliatory tariffs (-0.7%).
A 2024 study by David Autor et al. concluded that 2018–2019 tariffs had "neither a sizable nor significant effect" on employment in protected regions, while retaliation caused clear negative impacts, especially in agriculture.
Overall manufacturing jobs remained flat or declined slightly during the period, with no evidence of broad resurgence.
### Reduced GDP and Output
The tariffs contributed to lower economic output through higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty. Estimates from sources like the Tax Foundation and Federal Reserve models indicated reductions in long-run GDP by about 0.2%, with additional deadweight losses (inefficiencies beyond direct tariff payments) of around $1.4 billion per month by late 2018.
Retaliatory tariffs from China and others led to $27 billion in lost U.S. export value (primarily agriculture) from 2018–2019.
### Other Effects
- Revenue: Tariffs generated about $79 billion in 2019 (up sharply from prior years), but this was offset by economic harm and subsidies (e.g., $23–28 billion to farmers).
- Trade Deficit: Little to no reduction, as predicted by Federal Reserve analyses, due to balanced drops in imports and exports.
While some steel producers invested more and claimed job/wage gains, broader evidence from nonpartisan sources (Federal Reserve, NBER, academic journals) shows the tariffs imposed net costs on the U.S. economy, borne primarily by American businesses and households, without achieving key goals like manufacturing revival.
Where is this info from? One study? lol
THey will pretend that at the onset of the tariff implementation each time they didn't predict economic doom.
acesfull86
Well-known member
A quick Grok query
It’s the consensus of the economic literature
It is in line with decades of prior studies on tariffs
I don’t know what else to tell you
All the other countries in the world was fucked up too by Trump's tariffs.
Consensus of economic literature!!!!
DECADES OF STUDY!!!
Odd how none of these predictions from these experts came true in 25.
acesfull86
Well-known member
The marching orders were given…it’s the Biden strategy of pretending the economy is great and we’re all supposed to believe are lying eye