Economics Thread

thethe said:
A comparison to forecast is silly because of how many drivers you have to isolate to explain.

FP&A is heavily budget vs actual and its never a simple answer.
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I've also put up data on how core goods inflation has diverged from its typical trend. I'll share again:

2015 -0.5%
2016 -0.6
2017 -0.7
2018 0.3
2019 0.1
2020 1.6
2021 10.7
2022 2.1
2023 -0.7
2024 0.1
2025 1.4 (through November)

To add a little narrative, the underlying trend in 2015-2017 is for slight declines. It is almost 1.0% higher in 2018 and 2019 reflecting the tariffs from Trump's first term. Then you have the supply chain disruptions in 2020-2022. In 2023 and 2024 we see a return to flat to slightly declining prices similar to 2015-2017. Then this year it bumps up significantly.

Core goods make up almost 20% of the CPI. They are about 2% higher this year than they would have been absent the tariffs. Meaning the overall CPI is 0.4% higher. Per capita disposable income is $66,000 in this country. Multiply that by .004 and we get to $264. That's how much the tariffs have cost each person this year. A bit over $1,000 for a family of four.
 
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Garmel said:
The fact that our economy was booming tells me it is ridiculous. If our manufacturing was what you said it was we wouldn't have been.

Most of the world went into the deep end in 2020 as well. I guess Trump's tariffs did that too.
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I don’t know what to tell ya. You can ignore the data all you want and choose to be wrong.
 
nsacpi said:
I've also put up data on how core goods inflation has diverged from its typical trend. I'll share again:

2015 -0.5%
2016 -0.6
2017 -0.7
2018 0.3
2019 0.1
2020 1.6
2021 10.7
2022 2.1
2023 -0.7
2024 0.1
2025 1.4 (through November)

To add a little narrative, the underlying trend in 2015-2017 is for slight declines. It is 0.5-1.0% higher in 2018 and 2019 reflecting the tariffs from Trump's first term. Then you have the supply chain disruptions in 2020-2022. In 2023 and 2024 we have flat to slightly declining prices similar to 2015-2017. Then this year it bumps up significantly.
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Electronics were certainly one area that increased in costs. Not so important for the middle class thatw as struggling to put food on the table.

They care more about their wages and gas prices.
 
thethe said:
Electronics were certainly one area that increased in costs. Not so important for the middle class thatw as struggling to put food on the table.

They care more about their wages and gas prices.
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I've left out food prices. Thanks for the reminder. The tariffs on food prices have further added to the cost of living. Any way you slice it the bottom line conclusion is that the tariffs have cost the average family of 4 over $1,000 this year.

Gas prices have come down. If you want to argue this is due to slower growth in demand due to the tariffs slowing down the economy (which they did) I think that has some validity. Although many things go into the determination of oil prices.
 
nsacpi said:
I've left out food prices. Thanks for the reminder. The tariffs on food prices have further added to the cost of living. Any way you slice it the bottom line conclusion is that the tariffs have cost the average family of 4 over $1,000 this year.
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except families that aren’t buying electronics of course

And those same families have seen their wages go up and energy prices go down
 
Garmel said:
Trump's tariffs caused a worldwide downturn and not the 2020 pandemic?

You're out of your mind.
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That’s not my position. You’re either not reading or being wilfully obtuse.

My position is that in 2019, the overwhelming evidence was that Trump’s tariffs from earlier in his term were a net negative.

2020 has NOTHING to do with this position. I’m not making a claim that his tariffs caused the 2020 downturn. I’m making the same argument I was making in 2019, before anyone of us knew what COVID was.
 
thethe said:
At a modest price increase which is more tha wiped out becuse of other things trump has done. That’s been my argument from day 1.
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over $1,000 per family of four

that's the bottom line cost of the tariffs

you can deflect with "other things trump has done" if you want

but the bottom line is the average family of four ends 2025 with over $1,000 less in their bank account than if they hadn't had to pay higher prices directly due to the tariffs

that's why they are so grumpy

the stock market (largely due to the enthusiasm for AI) has done very well and generated a lot of wealth...that has helped keep the economy going...but that wealth is very concentrated...which is why you have such a divergence between how people feel and how the overall economy is doing

the average family of four has been hurt quite a bit by trump's tariffs

this is not complicated or mysterious
 
nsacpi said:
over $1,000 per family of four

that's the bottom line cost of the tariffs

you can deflect with "other things trump has done" if you want

but the bottom line is the average family of four ends 2025 with over $1,000 less in their bank account than if they hadn't had to pay higher prices directly due to the tariffs
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For those families that are making a large electronics purchase sure. Average vs median issues here.
 
thethe said:
For those families that are making a large electronics purchase sure. Average vs median issues here.
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it is overall goods prices that are almost 2% higher...it is a mistake to focus on such a narrow category....electronics are not that large a share of core goods prices...they are only a part of the reason core goods prices are almost 2% higher than they would have been without the tariffs
 
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nsacpi said:
it is overall goods prices that are almost 2% higher...it is a mistake to focus on such a narrow category....electronics are not that large a share of core goods prices...they are only a part of the reason core goods prices are almost 2% higher than they would have been without the tariffs
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But why isn’t the increase in line with input costs raised by tariffs?
 
Garmel said:
The fact that our economy was booming tells me it is ridiculous. If our manufacturing was what you said it was we wouldn't have been doing great.
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If the Braves win 95 games but have a pitcher with a 10.50 ERA, would you tell me it’s ridiculous to claim that pitcher is hurting the team? Why would I have to ignore specific, real world data that isolates the impact of that one player in favor of simply looking at the team’s overall record?
 
Also, a reminder.

Trump only initiated about half the tariffs he promised because markets responded so negatively. And he has also undone many of the tariffs he put on *specifically* to lower the costs on those items
 
acesfull86 said:
That’s not my position. You’re either not reading or being wilfully obtuse.

My position is that in 2019, the overwhelming evidence was that Trump’s tariffs from earlier in his term were a net negative.

2020 has NOTHING to do with this position. I’m not making a claim that his tariffs caused the 2020 downturn. I’m making the same argument I was making in 2019, before anyone of us knew what COVID was.
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Thanks for making that clear.
 
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