Economics Thread

Canada sucks except for hunting and fishing and land beauty.

I see BL in his limited number of years left likes life expectancy as a measure, but hasn’t moved there yet. Maybe he doesn’t believe his own metric?
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/2026491588331860018

In one sentence he suggests, yet again, that we replace the income tax with tariff revenues. And then in the next breath he talks about bringing jobs and factories back to the United States.

I’m told Trump has a “plan,” but yet again, no one in MAGA, least of all Trump, is willing to acknowledge the contradiction, much less resolve it.

Are we trying to replace our tax system with tariff revenue, in which case we need imports to remain sufficiently high to generate trillions of dollars of revenue?

Or are we trying to strengthen our supply chains and bring jobs back to America, in which case imports must necessarily plummet to a level where tariff revenue is negligible?

Usually there’s a specific goal in mind before taking an action that could cause substantially different results, accompanied with a clear plan in place to make sure the desired result is achieved.

So…….??
 
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acesfull86 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2026491588331860018

In one sentence he suggests, yet again, that we replace the income tax with tariff revenues. And then in the next breath he talks about bringing jobs and factories back to the United States.

I’m told Trump has a “plan,” but yet again, no one in MAGA, least of all Trump, is willing to acknowledge the contradiction, much less resolve it.

Are we trying to replace our tax system with tariff revenue, in which case we need imports to remain sufficiently high to generate trillions of dollars of revenue?

Or are we trying to strengthen our supply chains and bring jobs back to America, in which case imports must necessarily plummet to a level where tariff revenue is negligible?

Usually there’s a specific goal in mind before taking an action that could cause substantially different results, accompanied with a clear plan in place to make sure the desired result is achieved.

So…….??
Click to expand...
I'm not in the habit of defending Trump and trying to introduce some coherence into his pronouncements. So treat this as a stream of consciousness exercise perhaps under the influence of psychedelics. I think there is a world in which it makes sense to use tariffs to replace part or all of the income tax. It works to effectively increase the tax on consumption and reduce the tax on income. The main benefit is to reduce the tax on work effort (income). There are some interesting details. The dollar would likely appreciate substantially. This means we would continue to import large amounts of goods. So tariff revenues would remain robust. I could get behind this sort of reorganization of our tax system. The main losers in the scheme would be our export industries (where we have a comparative advantage). They would be effectively subsidizing the industries where we don't have a comparative advantage. That does not strike me as a good idea. But hey no plan is perfect. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good and all that jazz.
 
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nsacpi said:
I'm not in the habit of defending Trump and trying to introduce some coherence into his pronouncements. So treat this as a stream of consciousness exercise perhaps under the influence of psychedelics. I think there is a world in which it makes sense to use tariffs to replace part or all of the income tax. It works to effectively increase the tax on consumption and reduce the tax on income. The main benefit is to reduce the tax on work effort (income). There are some interesting details. The dollar would likely appreciate substantially. This means we would continue to import large amounts of goods. So tariff revenues would remain robust. I could get behind this sort of reorganization of our tax system. The main losers in the scheme would be our export industries (where we have a comparative advantage). They would be effectively subsidizing the industries where we don't have a comparative advantage. That does not strike me as a good idea. But hey no plan is perfect. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good and all that jazz.
Click to expand...
We need to reindustrialize the country first and foremost.

Further - We have become a financial services economy. AI is going to disrupt that.

We need to build real things again and not just give 'advice'.
 
thethe said:
Wait - THe stock market is the economy now?

Can you put that in writing for when it reached new highs later in the year?
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I didn't say it was.

See oil prices too. There's lots of things that suck. Oil is trading higher now than it was when Trump was complaining about prices on the campaign trail in 2024.
 
zitothebrave said:
I didn't say it was.

See oil prices too. There's lots of things that suck. Oil is trading higher now than it was when Trump was complaining about prices on the campaign trail in 2024.
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Ok great - When oil goes down in 3 months I'll also ask you if you think the economy is great.
 
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