Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread

nsacpi said:
I'm preparing for my new career as a sommelier. It will be a while before AI can taste wine. Of course it can already do a pretty job writing fake tasting notes.
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I did an econometrics project that predicted the quality of wine based on growing season temperature, rainfall near harvest, heat accumulation during growing season, etc.

The R2 was quite high if I remember correctly
 
sturg33 said:
I have determined that we are basically all on a UBI anyway with fake jobs to keep us busy. Some more than others.

But only like .1% of the people create the things the masses use daily (food, energy, technology)

The idea of a CPA makes me laugh. We create a tax code so confusing that it requires a person to dedicate their life figure out
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That first sentence hits hard. 100% aligned.

Shuffling deck chairs
 
Exponentially increased productivity and the United States is going to control it all. Yes - the golden age. Those of us that made money already will have it better for sure but it’s going to be great.
 
The one thing I’ll say about tools like Claude for finance is that it’s still only doing entry to mid level work. Not sure when that changes but excel and power point monkeys are in a lot of trouble on th next 6-12 months.
 
thethe said:
The one thing I’ll say about tools like Claude for finance is that it’s still only doing entry to mid level work. Not sure when that changes but excel and power point monkeys are in a lot of trouble on th next 6-12 months.
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Not the same thing but it actually found me more tax breaks than a CPA who charged us $3k
 
sturg33 said:
Not the same thing but it actually found me more tax breaks than a CPA who charged us $3k
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Never went into tax compliance because of how boring it is and how often it changes.

Eventually people get lazy and don’t keep up.

Corporate finance is much more interesting and varied.
 
thethe said:
Never went into tax compliance because of how boring it is and how often it changes.

Eventually people get lazy and don’t keep up.

Corporate finance is much more interesting and varied.
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Yeah. This year i decided i would do an AB test.

Pay for a full service CPA

Use claude

Same files, etc. CPA cost $3K and about 40 min of dialogue. About an hour of document upload time

Claude was $0, no phone call. And about 20 min of document upload (more intuitive than local CPA)

Ultimately, claude found me about 1300 in additional tax savings

Good enough for me going forward. I lied to my CPA friends who believe they are safe
 
A smart CPA would just leverage Claude and cut their rates. You’re just part of the .01% of the population that is leveraging these tools properly
 
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The reality is many people think they are decision makers when all they really are are fact regurgitators. They will be weeded out very quickly and wonder what went wrong.
 
I just can’t envision things being essentially free. There will still be patents and licensing fees if nothing else to drive costs. Robots require maintenance, data centers require power, water, chips, buildings, etc. I can buy the 80% replacement idea. It’s scary. But things becoming inexpensive just because they can? I’ll have to see it first.

I would love to know what kind of software guardrails these guys are using that they honestly think will keep the bots from deciding humans are the ultimate inefficiency that needs to be removed.
 
Jaw said:
I just can’t envision things being essentially free. There will still be patents and licensing fees if nothing else to drive costs. Robots require maintenance, data centers require power, water, chips, buildings, etc. I can buy the 80% replacement idea. It’s scary. But things becoming inexpensive just because they can? I’ll have to see it first.

I would love to know what kind of software guardrails these guys are using that they honestly think will keep the bots from deciding humans are the ultimate inefficiency that needs to be removed.
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I don’t see how you can buy the 80% workforce reduction and not the impact to prices on everyday goods. To me you won’t have one without the other.
 
Jaw said:
I just can’t envision things being essentially free. There will still be patents and licensing fees if nothing else to drive costs. Robots require maintenance, data centers require power, water, chips, buildings, etc. I can buy the 80% replacement idea. It’s scary. But things becoming inexpensive just because they can? I’ll have to see it first.

I would love to know what kind of software guardrails these guys are using that they honestly think will keep the bots from deciding humans are the ultimate inefficiency that needs to be removed.
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It won’t be zero, but if AI indeed reduces marginal costs across the full supply chain, then prices will race to the bottom.

The problem is AI compute isn’t cheap and it will become more expensive until we solve energy and infrastructure.

The end state of AI could be amazing but I don’t see how we don’t go through a painful period of readjustment.
 
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